Browse Symbol Stacks: GOLD: Blanks of the trader

Blanks of the trader

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Going into the week we are likely to see gaps on CHF pairs with Swiss referendum NO vote as a result. Fundamentally this is bullish CHF outcome, however will be watching closer the outcome at the open. This outcome is another nail for Gold longs is likely to send it further more south. Thursday will have two rates decisions on the line with BOE followed by ECB surely having effect on EUR and GBP pairs.

Weekly Currency Board






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Short GBP/CHF; Long  EUR/GBP






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Prime Risk Events (UTC time) Sunday 30 Nov Swiss gold referendum: Being addicted to the idea of referendums, Switzerland will vote on a proposal that the Swiss National Bank should refrain from selling any more gold and in fact should boost its holdings from 7% to 20%. Current polls indicate that the proposal will be defeated, with support for it currently around 30%. However, a surprise vote would provide a strong upward catalyst for gold prices. Market to watch: Spot FX EUR/CHF  Gold Monday 1 Dec HSBC China manufacturing PMI (November, final), 1.30am: This is likely to remain at 50 for the month, but any upward revision would be well-received by mining stocks in London. Market to watch:  China indices, mining stocks   Copper

France, Germany, eurozone manufacturing PMI (November, final), 8.50-9am: The final numbers for these indices are not expected to see any change, remaining in expansion territory for Germany and the eurozone overall, but only just, while France’s number is expected to be unchanged at 47.6. Market to watch: Estoxx 50   DAX   CAC40 Spot FX EUR/USD   Spot FX EUR/GBP

UK manufacturing PMI (November), 9.30am: The UK’s manufacturing sector is expected to see a moderation in its growth, as the index moves to 53 from 53.2. Market to watch: Spot FX GBP/USD   Spot FX EUR/GBP

US manufacturing PMI (November, final), 2.45pm: The final revision to this number is forecast to show a small increase, with the index hitting 55 from the previous 54.7. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

US ISM manufacturing index (November), 3pm: Having hit 59 in October, the index is expected to ease back to 57.8 for the month of November. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

Tuesday 2 Dec RBA rate decision (December), 3.30am: The sole major event of the day is not expected to see any change in the RBA’s policy stance, with the interest rate holding steady at 2.5%. Market to watch: Spot FX AUD/USD Wednesday 3 Dec Australia GDP (Q3), 12.30am: It is expected that growth in Australia will be 0.9% quarter-on-quarter and 2.8% year-on-year, from 0.5% and 3.1% respectively. Market to watch: S&P/ASX 200, Spot FX AUD/USD

China non-manufacturing PMI (November), 1am: Growth is expected to be 52.5, slightly down from the October reading of 52.9. Market to watch: China indices, mining stocks, copper

France, Germany, eurozone services PMI (November, final), 8.50-9am: Services growth is expected to be revised marginally lower in these numbers, causing further concern among investors. Market to watch: Estoxx 50   DAX   CAC40 Spot FX EUR/USD   Spot FX EUR/GBP

Eurozone GDP (Q3, preliminary), 10am: Economic growth is not expected to be particularly cheery for the eurozone, growing at 0.2% QoQ and 0.8% YoY. Market to watch: EStoxx 50, Spot FX EUR/USD   Spot FX EUR/GBP

ADP payroll report (November), 1.15pm: The private survey of US job creation is expected to see an increase of 228,000 jobs, just below October’s 230,000. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

Bank of Canada rate decision (December), 3pm: The RBC is expected to leave rates at 1% for the month. Market to watch: Spot FX USD/CAD

US ISM non-manufacturing index (November,) 3pm: The services sector is expected to have grown during the month, with the index rising to 57.5 from 57.1 last month. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

EIA crude inventories, 3.30pm: The weekly survey is expected to show a reserve of 2.13 million barrels, up from 1.95 million last week. Market to watch: US light crude

Federal Reserve Beige Book, 7pm: This survey of businesses will help markets gauge the strength of the US economy. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

Thursday 4 Dec Bank of England decision (December), 12pm: The usual non-event is expected here, with no change to rates, and as before the important event will be the minutes of the meeting later in the month.  Market to watch: Spot FX GBP/USD   Spot FX EUR/GBP

ECB decision (December), 12.45pm: Will the ECB live up to expectations and launch a programme to rescue the floundering eurozone economy? Perhaps. Keep an eye out for further discussion of easing measures in the press conference even if there is no change in policy. Market to watch: Spot FX EUR/USD   Spot FX EUR/GBP

US initial jobless claims, 1.30pm: Back in their usual slot this week, jobless claims are expected to be 290,000, from 313,000 in the previous week. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

Friday 5 Dec US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate (November), 1.30pm: While the unemployment is expected to remain at 5.8% the number of jobs created is forecast to be 220,000, from 209,000 last month. Watch out for revisions to the figures for previous months. Market to watch: All major indices, currency crosses, oil

Canadian unemployment rate (November), 1.30pm: The rate is expected to rise to 6.6% from 6.5%, while 5,000 jobs are expected to have been created, from 43,000 last month. Market to watch: Spot FX USD/CAD

US factory orders (October), 3pm: These are forecast to decline by 0.2% in the month, after a drop of 0.6% in September. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses


This is longer term setup that may take some time to complete, however if this pattern to be completed this week it is likely to be move going into ECB rates announcement on Thursday. 


Another pattern that is likely to be completed this week is bearish Cypher on 1H chart. Going into Thursdays BOE rates announcement we may see this bearish pattern triggered, see the chart below.

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