User: Tim Knight: Historical Example


2018-06-21_12-27-25.jpg (890×452)
2018-06-21_12-27-25.jpg (890×452)
This is the worst year-to-date divergence between Dow/Nasdaq since 2009...
Tim Knight
joe-friday-nas-comp-9-year-pattern-jun-15.jpg (1237×661)
joe-friday-nas-comp-9-year-pattern-jun-15.jpg (1237×661)
Tech stocks analog
Tim Knight
2
2018-06-05_13-57-32.jpg (890×639)
2018-06-05_13-57-32.jpg (890×639)
Sector dominance in the market
Tim Knight
2018-06-05_12-32-34_0.jpg (890×447)
2018-06-05_12-32-34_0.jpg (890×447)
The only time the tech sector has been more valuable than this, relative to the financials, was at the very peak o...
Tim Knight
2018-06-01_12-57-21.jpg (890×468)
2018-06-01_12-57-21.jpg (890×468)
Tim Knight
slopechart_XLF.jpg
slopechart_XLF.jpg
One of my favorite analogs of all time.
Tim Knight
ecommerce bubble.jpg (890×496)
ecommerce bubble.jpg (890×496)
Comparing the present bubble to past ones
Tim Knight
1
Inflation Since 1872
Inflation Since 1872
Monthly inflation over centuries
Tim Knight
1
2018-03-28_10-58-41.jpg (890×455)
2018-03-28_10-58-41.jpg (890×455)
The last time SMART money and the market diverged this much did not end well for stocks...
Tim Knight
1
longest bull markets.jpg (890×543)
longest bull markets.jpg (890×543)
We are in the second longest bull market in history
Tim Knight
1
bubble trouble 2.jpg (890×497)
bubble trouble 2.jpg (890×497)
Asset bubbles over the past 40 years
Tim Knight
jpm debt cbo forecast.jpg (763×481)
jpm debt cbo forecast.jpg (763×481)
Debt/GDP ratio (and this is based on a hugely OPTIMISTIC forecast by the geniuses in the Fed Govt)
Tim Knight
2
Bull-market-DJIA.jpg (554×565)
Bull-market-DJIA.jpg (554×565)
Biggest bull markets of all time
Tim Knight
2
joe-friday-dow-at-top-of-70-year-channel-momentum-seldom-seen-march-2.jpg (1565×682)
joe-friday-dow-at-top-of-70-year-channel-momentum-seldom-seen-march...
Similarities to 1929, 1987, 2000 & 2007 in play
Tim Knight
Long-Term.png (1078×796)
Long-Term.png (1078×796)
Interest rate history
Tim Knight
TSY tax forecast.jpg (1299×854)
TSY tax forecast.jpg (1299×854)
Mnuchin has fallen in line behind his boss and repeatedly asserted that the US would make up for lost tax revenue...
Tim Knight
market rates before crash.jpg (862×444)
market rates before crash.jpg (862×444)
"Every market crash has been preceded by Fed tightening."
Tim Knight
3
SP500-1999-2007-2016-Comparision-021818.png (1100×688)
SP500-1999-2007-2016-Comparision-021818.png (1100×688)
Tim Knight
2
Recessions-Recovery-021918.png (900×511)
Recessions-Recovery-021918.png (900×511)
Tim Knight
sc-1108.png (990×788)
sc-1108.png (990×788)
1929 Throwover Top
Tim Knight
II bulls.jpg (890×416)
II bulls.jpg (890×416)
Stock Market Optimism Hits Highest Level Since Crash Of 1987
Tim Knight
2
dj 25000.jpg (600×338)
dj 25000.jpg (600×338)
Big Round Numbers and the Dow
Tim Knight
5-1.jpg (759×491)
5-1.jpg (759×491)
As it stands it’s been around 80 days now there hasn’t been an either 1% up or down move on the $SPX. 5% pullback...
Tim Knight
2
VXO.png (1630×766)
VXO.png (1630×766)
However in this case markets have been subject to unprecedented volatility compression. Never has a year or quarte...
Tim Knight
assets.jpg (1490×980)
assets.jpg (1490×980)
Assets to GDP - yet another extreme never before seen in the history of the universe
Tim Knight
1
2007-1.png (1608×672)
2007-1.png (1608×672)
The brilliant 2008 forecasts from the "experts", including the hideously ugly Abby Joseph Cohen.
Tim Knight
20171215_HY3.jpg (1019×1080)
20171215_HY3.jpg (1019×1080)
This is "unusual... Must Watch"
Tim Knight
1
20171213_seas6.png (768×893)
20171213_seas6.png (768×893)
Fascinating
Tim Knight
20171201_accel2.png (960×563)
20171201_accel2.png (960×563)
The Global FInancial Crisis bubble
Tim Knight
1
20171130_never.jpg (1161×586)
20171130_never.jpg (1161×586)
Unless the world comes to a very serious end overnight, global equity markets are about to do something they have...
Tim Knight
2
Contra Corner » Chart of the Day: Look Out Below!
Contra Corner » Chart of the Day: Look Out Below!
Tim Knight
AAPL in context_1
AAPL in context_1
A surprising perspective
Tim Knight
20171115_EOD8.jpg (959×1008)
20171115_EOD8.jpg (959×1008)
A beautiful analog...........
Tim Knight
1
20171110_eod10.jpg (965×509)
20171110_eod10.jpg (965×509)
first 12 month period in the history of the S&P 500 without a 3% drawdown. The VIX is also the lowest on record us...
Tim Knight
2
20171108_nasd.jpg (755×495)
20171108_nasd.jpg (755×495)
No 52-week high in the Nasdaq 100 has ever been accompanied by as few advancing stocks as today’s.
Tim Knight
1
20171106_huss3.jpg (668×564)
20171106_huss3.jpg (668×564)
On this measure, market valuations are now more extreme than at any point in history, including the 1929 and 2000...
Tim Knight
1
20171106_huss1.jpg (663×521)
20171106_huss1.jpg (663×521)
The chart below shows the median price/revenue ratio of S&P 500 component stocks, which set yet another record hig...
Tim Knight
1
bofa vol 1.jpg (678×408)
bofa vol 1.jpg (678×408)
We have now recorded 334 days without a 5% or more pullback (and 335 after today's close), the fourth longest peri...
Tim Knight
1
20171023_EOD2.jpg (961×486)
20171023_EOD2.jpg (961×486)
It has now been 242 days since the US equity market dipped by 3% or more... That has never, ever, happened before..
Tim Knight
2
3-Phases-Bull-Market-101917.png (900×673)
3-Phases-Bull-Market-101917.png (900×673)
As I have shown previously, these late stage “melt-ups” are not uncommon. In fact, as shown below, it is somethin...
Tim Knight
2
Dow-1000point-Closes-2009-Present.png (1758×960)
Dow-1000point-Closes-2009-Present.png (1758×960)
The chart below shows the 1000-point milestones of the Dow going back to 2009. After a long break between 18,000 a...
Tim Knight
valuation 18 out of 20 bofa.jpg (956×603)
valuation 18 out of 20 bofa.jpg (956×603)
The S&P 500 Is Now Overvalued On 18 Of 20 Metrics
Tim Knight
20171007_stock.jpg (962×504)
20171007_stock.jpg (962×504)
As StockBoardAsset shows on the 24-year monthly ratio chart below, bulls have pushed the S&P:VIX price into uncharted...
Tim Knight
1
20170816_best4.png (1175×619)
20170816_best4.png (1175×619)
The Dow has hit 31 all-time highs in 2017 and has done so with no more than a 3% pullback.
Tim Knight
2
20170816_best1.jpg (508×489)
20170816_best1.jpg (508×489)
The S&P 500 has not seen a drawdown of more than 3% since the election last November. As PensionPartners' Charlie...
Tim Knight
20170811_EOD12.jpg (1182×617)
20170811_EOD12.jpg (1182×617)
My favorite analog right now...........
Tim Knight
4
Logarithmic-Chart-Stock-Market-Crash-1929.jpg (553×373)
Logarithmic-Chart-Stock-Market-Crash-1929.jpg (553×373)
Crash of 1929 - this is what I keep hidden under my mattress.
Tim Knight
2
20170714_eod6.jpg (1185×614)
20170714_eod6.jpg (1185×614)
The stock market is near peak euphoria here (tracked by the ratio of Fwd P/E to VIX)...
Tim Knight
4
Investor-Psychology-100k-062417.png (900×541)
Investor-Psychology-100k-062417.png (900×541)
A long view of the psychology of the markets
Tim Knight
1
SP500-Comparison-061617.png (1102×687)
SP500-Comparison-061617.png (1102×687)
Historically speaking, such levels of exuberance have tended to have poor outcomes for investors who did not reali...
Tim Knight
Hedge Funds Have Never Been This Bullish About Small-Cap Stocks | Zero Hedge
Hedge Funds Have Never Been This Bullish About Small-Cap Stocks...
Over 57,000 Russell 2000 e-mini contract longs were added in the last two weeks - the most since July 2008 - leavi...
Tim Knight
1
20170615_EOD6.jpg (960×486)
20170615_EOD6.jpg (960×486)
Notably, the US Macro Surprise Index has dropped for 13 straight weeks (since The Fed hiked in March) - this is th...
Tim Knight
1
stock-bond-ratio-could-be-creating-double-top-and-hands-pattern-june-15.jpg (1293×675)
stock-bond-ratio-could-be-creating-double-top-and-hands-pattern-jun...
Below looks at the Stock/Bond ratio (SPX/ZROZ), using the two assets from above. The ratio in our humble opinion,...
Tim Knight
20170512_EOD3.jpg (965×971)
20170512_EOD3.jpg (965×971)
The last time US Macro and stocks decoupled like this was in mid 2015 and did not end well for stocks...
Tim Knight
5
2017.05.03 - Prudent Speculator 2.jpg (1254×1080)
2017.05.03 - Prudent Speculator 2.jpg (1254×1080)
'Reputable' Investing Newsletter To Millennials: "If You Do Not Have 100% In Equities, You Are Crazy"
Tim Knight
3
spy-nifty-50-chart-april-18.jpg (1567×736)
spy-nifty-50-chart-april-18.jpg (1567×736)
It was 50 stocks back then, just add a “0” today and make it the nifty 500? S&P 500 Long-Term “Weekly” Chart
Tim Knight
transports-could-be-repeating-1999-and-2007-pattern-april-6.jpg (1570×730)
transports-could-be-repeating-1999-and-2007-pattern-april-6.jpg...
The transports are a key cog in our economy, so they also tend to be a key indicator for stocks historically.
Tim Knight
2
20170402_bonds.jpg (768×452)
20170402_bonds.jpg (768×452)
Stock-To-Bond Ratio Back At 2007 Peak
Tim Knight
20170328_stocks.jpg (968×504)
20170328_stocks.jpg (968×504)
The Last Time Americans Felt This Good About Stocks, The Dot Com Bubble Burst 2 Months Later
Tim Knight
5
20170324_durgoods2.jpg (961×488)
20170324_durgoods2.jpg (961×488)
Durable Goods Orders have gone nowhere for five years...
Tim Knight
2
transports-creating-repeating-1999-and-2007-patterns-march-20.jpg (1569×733)
transports-creating-repeating-1999-and-2007-patterns-march-20.jp...
Transports; Could be repeating 1999 & 2007 pattern
Tim Knight
C7CzYOuU4AE8Suz.jpg:large (1296×675)
C7CzYOuU4AE8Suz.jpg:large (1296×675)
Tim Knight
4
20170310_wealth.jpg (961×509)
20170310_wealth.jpg (961×509)
Household Wealth Has Never Been Higher Relative To Income
Tim Knight
4
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective - dshort - Advisor Pers...
Last year was a remarkable one for yields. The 10-year note hit its historic closing low of 1.37% in July and then...
Tim Knight
djia
djia
Amazing long-term view of stock uptrend and channel
Tim Knight
1
pic3268b577a81977084b90f2751b9a7b6b.png (894×513)
pic3268b577a81977084b90f2751b9a7b6b.png (894×513)
Market recoveries and declines measured in time
Tim Knight
transports-could-be-repeating-1999-and-2007-pattern-feb-3.jpg (1568×734)
transports-could-be-repeating-1999-and-2007-pattern-feb-3.jpg (1...
Third major instance of a very bearish setup in Dow Transports
Tim Knight
20170131_macro.jpg (946×486)
20170131_macro.jpg (946×486)
What is perhaps more immediately worrying is the seasonal tendency for a post-fiscal-year surge in Economic data f...
Tim Knight
20170127_GDP_Obama.jpg (1719×1231)
20170127_GDP_Obama.jpg (1719×1231)
And worse still, Barack Obama is the only president in US history to never have a year of economic growth over 3.0%...
Tim Knight
2
correction 1.jpg (1314×648)
correction 1.jpg (1314×648)
Until recently. As the next chart shows, we are now 11.2 months removed from the bottom of the last correction. Wh...
Tim Knight
3
20170114_RV5.jpg (994×780)
20170114_RV5.jpg (994×780)
Reagan and Trump
Tim Knight
3
20170114_RV10.jpg (1126×807)
20170114_RV10.jpg (1126×807)
Bubble three
Tim Knight
2
stock-bond-ratios-at-2007-extremes-jan-9.jpg (1296×680)
stock-bond-ratios-at-2007-extremes-jan-9.jpg (1296×680)
TLT/SPY is awfully similar (umm, identical) to 2007
Tim Knight
1
junk-bond-divergence-to-stocks-2-years-again-dec-15.jpg (1568×705)
junk-bond-divergence-to-stocks-2-years-again-dec-15.jpg (1568×705)
Junk bond divergence
Tim Knight
3
20161208_CAPE.jpg (857×404)
20161208_CAPE.jpg (857×404)
PE levels back to 1929
Tim Knight
5
hanson bubble.jpg (947×818)
hanson bubble.jpg (947×818)
Houses NEVER more expensive
Tim Knight
2
wmc161003c.png (791×690)
wmc161003c.png (791×690)
Presently, the median stock in the S&P 500 is more overvalued than at any point in U.S. history, easily exceeding...
Tim Knight
1
Ct3dKCVWIAAGHGe.jpg:large (700×549)
Ct3dKCVWIAAGHGe.jpg:large (700×549)
Bubbles bubbles
Tim Knight
3
citi twitter 1.jpg (1120×637)
citi twitter 1.jpg (1120×637)
Internet firm acquisitions typically turn out to be duds.
Tim Knight
1
CskW68BXYAA0Tn3.jpg:large (2048×1767)
CskW68BXYAA0Tn3.jpg:large (2048×1767)
Empires past
Tim Knight
20160915 - Harvard 4.JPG (1212×881)
20160915 - Harvard 4.JPG (1212×881)
Male labor force participation
Tim Knight
5
20160813_VIX5.jpg (1169×620)
20160813_VIX5.jpg (1169×620)
VIX is unprecedentedly low for an election year
Tim Knight
1
20160730_bear1.jpg (994×580)
20160730_bear1.jpg (994×580)
Corporate profit plunge
Tim Knight
20160722_VIX1.jpg (956×505)
20160722_VIX1.jpg (956×505)
Equities are actually considered safer than bonds now. Freaky.
Tim Knight
2
joefriday-ndx-at-right-shoulder-june-10.jpg (1574×731)
joefriday-ndx-at-right-shoulder-june-10.jpg (1574×731)
Topping pattern on the NASDAQ
Tim Knight
1
SP500-LongTerm-BearMarketSignals-060716.png (990×744)
SP500-LongTerm-BearMarketSignals-060716.png (990×744)
Secular bear market markers
Tim Knight
1
20160607_fear.jpg (630×322)
20160607_fear.jpg (630×322)
Fear and Greed over the past couple of years
Tim Knight
1
3491119_orig.jpg (562×800)
3491119_orig.jpg (562×800)
A beauty of a chart aligning margin debt with stock peaks
Tim Knight
djia-w2.png (2450×1092)
djia-w2.png (2450×1092)
Diagramming the central bank interference with free markets
Tim Knight
1
nysiw6.png (1962×1180)
nysiw6.png (1962×1180)
$NYSI is now most overbought since spring of 2014:
Tim Knight
20160227_10202.jpg (935×597)
20160227_10202.jpg (935×597)
The long term moving averages suggest that anyone holding on to stocks is certifiably insane.
Tim Knight
5
20160218_you1.jpg (960×506)
20160218_you1.jpg (960×506)
Analog time from the beartard
Tim Knight
1
20160117_oilgold.jpg (1678×861)
20160117_oilgold.jpg (1678×861)
Barrels of oil per ounce of gold
Tim Knight
2
SP500-MarketUpdate-020216-2.png (990×438)
SP500-MarketUpdate-020216-2.png (990×438)
The millionth chart showing how we are repeating what happened in 2000 and 2008 Sort of like an 8 year cycle, ain't it?
Tim Knight
3
20160202_PEG_0.jpg (600×412)
20160202_PEG_0.jpg (600×412)
Stocks are more overpriced than they EVER HAVE BEEN, including 2000.
Tim Knight
1
20160126_MSBear1.jpg (939×905)
20160126_MSBear1.jpg (939×905)
Current sell-off versus prior bear markets
Tim Knight
2
20160107_EOD18.jpg (1095×637)
20160107_EOD18.jpg (1095×637)
This Is The Dow's Worst Start To The Year... Ever
Tim Knight
1
1-Cyprus.gif (1045×635)
1-Cyprus.gif (1045×635)
Now THIS is a bear market - - the Cyprus stock market, having lost about 99.99% of its value since its peak.
Tim Knight
1
xvg.png (1972×916)
xvg.png (1972×916)
History about to repeat itself again.
Tim Knight
rsp.png (1956×916)
rsp.png (1956×916)
Equal weighted stock index will lead the way lower for the deluded S&P 500
Tim Knight