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Recap

Coming week looks much lighter on fundamental horizon, with more data coming in only on Wednesday. Last week JPY weakness carried it's momentum with the significant move on NZD/JPY. As it stands now JPY shorts are very much extended over majority of pairs, will be expecting some pullback on GBP/JPY and CHF/JPY this week. Another strong signal for the week is CAD strength in relation to CHF, GBP and AUD.

Weekly Currency Board

AUD

Bearish

Short AUD/CAD

USD

Neutral

No positions

EUR

Neutral

No positions

NZD

Neutral

No positions

GBP

Bearish

Shorts GBP/CAD, GBP/JPY,

CHF

Bearish

Short CHF/JPY; Long CAD/CHF

JPY

Bullish

Short GBP/JPY

CAD

Bullish

Long CAD/CHF; Shorts GBP/CAD, AUD/CAD

Prime Risk Events (UTC time)   Monday10 Nov Chinese CPI (October), 1.30am: YoY rate 1.6% vs 1.6% expected, prior 1.6%. MoM 0% vs expected 0.1%, prior 0.5%. Tuesday11 Nov No major economic announcements Wednesday 12 Nov UK jobless claims (October), ILO unemployment (September), earnings data (September), 9.30am: The number of jobless claimants is expected to fall by 32,100, while the rate is expected to remain at 6%. Earnings data will be closely watched for any indication that workers are seeing an improvement in their overall situation. Market to watch: GBP/USD   EUR/GBP

Bank of England Inflation Report, 10.30am: If the BoE strikes a dovish tone, indicating that inflation will remain weak, then we could see further weakness in the pound. Conversely, any suggestion that inflation is strengthening could see GBP/USD regain some of its recent losses. Market to watch: GBP/USD   EUR/GBP

US crude inventories, 4pm: Last week’s data gave a boost to crude oil, as stocks declined. Further drops in stockpiles would be bullish for US light crude. Market to watch: US light crude

Thursday13 Nov Chinese retail sales, industrial production (October), 5.30am: YoY retail sales are expected to grow at 11.6% for the month, while industrial production edges up to 8.5%. Market to watch: China A50   USD/JPY   copper,  mining stocks

German CPI (October), 7am: The MoM figure is expected to be revised to -0.3^%, while the YoY is forecast to hold steady at 0.8%. Market to watch: EUR/USD   EUR/GBP

European Central Bank monthly report, 9am: The monthly update from the expert economists at the central bank will provide an insight into their thinking on the current direction of the eurozone economy. Market to watch: EUR/USD   EUR/GBP

US initial jobless claims, 1.30pm: The monthly update from the expert economists at the central bank will provide an insight into their thinking on the current direction of the eurozone economy. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

US JOLTS job openings (September), 3pm: This is a survey of all positions that are open, but not filled on the last day of the month. The number has been steadily rising and is expected to see a figure of 4.85 million, from 4.835 million in the preceding month. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

Friday14 Nov French, German GDP (Q3), 6.30-7am: This is a survey of all positions that are open, but not filled on the last day of the month. The number has been steadily rising and is expected to see a figure of 4.85 million, from 4.835 million in the preceding month. Market to watch: DAX   Cac 40   EUR/USD   EUR/GBP

Eurozone GDP (Q3), CPI (October), 10am: This is a survey of all positions that are open, but not filled on the last day of the month. The number has been steadily rising and is expected to see a figure of 4.85 million, from 4.835 million in the preceding month. Market to watch: EStoxx 50   EUR/USD   EUR/GBP

US retail sales (October), 1.30pm: Retail sales are always a useful gauge of how well the US recovery is doing, since consumer spending is such a large part of the economy. YoY growth is expected to accelerate to 6.1%, from a previous 4.3%, with the MoM figure bouncing back to 0.2% growth from -0.3%. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

US University of Michigan consumer confidence index (November, preliminary), 2.55pm: In a similar vein the Michigan index will aid analysis of whether the US economy is on track. The index is expected to rise to an initial estimate of 87.5, from 86.9 at the end of October. Further revisions will follow later in November. Market to watch:  US indices, dollar crosses

 CAD/CHF

Have a good one traders and click the button below if you choose to contribute to further development of this blog.

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