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Although long term patterns were not really hitting over the last couple of weeks i was busy day trading on the shorter time frames. Having said that EUR/USD pattern posted in 

W32 stub

just got completed at the FX open on Friday with gap down as low as 1.3182. Having EUR very much bearish across the board, some pullback north is very likely from 1.32's level.

Weekly Currency Board






Short AUD/USD long USD/CAD



Shorts EUR/NZD






No positions



No positions



Shorts GBP/JPY and USD/JPY




Prime Risk Events (UTC time)  Monday German IFO business climate (Aug), 9.00am: The leading data point fell to 108.0 in July, marking a third consecutive monthly decline and missing estimates of 109.4. Expectations are for a print of 107 now. Market to watch: EUR/USD, DAXUS services PMI (Aug) 14.45pm: This hit 60.8 in July – it is expected to pare back a little to 59.1 in August. Market to watch: US Indices, dollar crosses  US new home sales (Jul), 3.00pm: Housing data stateside has been decent lately. The prior number was 406,000; it is expected to print 425000 this time. Market to watch: US Indices, dollar crosses   Tuesday BBA mortgage approvals (July), 9.30am: Number of new mortgage approvals is expected to improve on last month to 44,000. Market to watch: GBP/USD, FTSE, EUR/GBPUS core durable goods orders (July), 1.30pm: This was weak last month, with a rise of 0.7% recorded. A rise of 7.5% month-on-month is expected now. Market to watch: Dow Jones, dollar crossesCB consumer confidence (August) 3.00pm: Expected to decline from last month’s 90.9 to 88.8. Market to watch: Dow Jones, dollar crosses Wednesday German GFK consumer confidence (August), 7.00am: A small reduction on last month’s 9.0 print to 8.9 is expected. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USDCrude oil inventories (week end 28 August), 3.30pm: Inventories decreased by 4.5 million barrels in the week ending 15 August. Market to watch: Oil, Dollar index Thursday German preliminary CPI (August), 1.00pm: An increase of 0.3% was recorded in July; it is expected to come in flat in August. Year-on-year figure is expected to stay at 0.8%. Market to watch: Euro crosses, DAX, BundsEurozone M3 money supply (July), 9.00am: Expected to stay static at 1.5% YoY. Market to watch:  EUR/USD, European indicesUS preliminary GDP q/q (Q2) 1.30pm: The previous version was 2.0%. It is expected to stay the same on the quarter. Market to watch:  Dollar crosses, global indices.US unemployment claims (Aug 23) 1.30pm: Expected to see a small increase on the previous week; 300,000 weekly claims expected. Market to watch:  Dow Jones, SPX, EUR/USD, USD crossesUS pending home sales (July) 3.00pm: This fell by 1.1% last time round. A small increase of 0.5% MoM is slated now. Market to watch: EUR/USD, Dow Jones, SPX, dollar crosses Friday Japanese CPI (July), 12.30am: Saw a year on year rise of 3.6% last time. Expected to fall back to 3.4% YoY now. Market to watch: Nikkei, yen crossesJapanese industrial production (July), 12.50am: An improvement on last month’s number (-3.4%) to 1.3% MoM expected. Market to watch: Nikkei, yen crossesJapanese retail sales (July), 12.50am: A rise of 0.3% on the month is the consensus which equates to a decline of -0.1% annualised. Market to watch: Nikkei, yen crossesEurozone CPI estimate (August), 10.00am: Inflation is expected to remain subdued at a 0.3% rise YoY. This is lower than last month’s 0.4%. Market to watch: EUR/USD, FTSE, DAX, CACUS Chicago PMI (August),2.45pm: Improvement on last month’s disappointing 52.6 is the forecast here. 56.2 print is the median consensus. Dollar crosses, US indices. USD/JPY

In terms of the setups there is nothing much on patterns side at the moment, however earlier mentioned 3σ analysis is pointing towards over extension on weekly chart around 104's levels. Will be looking for pullback south from those levels at least temporarily, see the chart below.

Have a good one traders and click the button below if you chose to contribute to further development of this blog.


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