View: SPX Weekly - 9.22.2015.png

SPX Weekly - 9.22.2015.png

SPX Weekly. What are the odds that the market has topped and we are entering a bear market? Low. Why? Because most of the time markets are trending; they only top and tops and bottoms! Everyone knows that the market screws as many people as possible and the best way to do that is to neither fall nor rise, but instead form a consolidation to digest the gains over the last 2 years. After the consolidation, the market should blast higher to a target of 2500.


Could just as easily go the other way to test the break out from the mid 1500s first. 9/22/15
Corporate earnings are declining EVEN WITH the world record stock buybacks. 
PE multiples would have to inflate with hopium to maintain a flat and current level, let alone to actually increase. 
China's production is slowing down because they are exporting less = less revenue + need to purchase raw goods from suppliers to turn into finished goods. 
The nations that supply raw materials to China will ALSO not be receiving that cash (mostly US trade deficit dollars.) 
There is a cascade effect in the above just on basic mechanical fundamentals. 
Now, when the US housing market topped out with over production the problem morphed into a financial crisis that went waaaaaaaaay beyond the housing sector & it's immediately related industries like furniture and refrigerators. 
Likewise, with China's overcapacity to build products a lot of Chinese employees will have diminished incomes, thus spending power, and the whole cascade begins there, too. 
Back to the US again, when money simply STOPS going into the market it will decline. 
When money begins being pulled out en mass it will drop like a rock. 
How's the math work out on SPX 2100 - 2300 in the next 12 months? 9/22/15
@Inflation: I agree with you that 1500 will need to be retested...eventually. I do not think this is the time for that retest though. This is simply a triangle consolidation to digest the massive gains of the last 2 years. 9/22/15
@RayW: I mean no offense, but I do not converse with "fundamental" analysts. I hold very little respect for so-called fundamental analysis. By the way, "money simply stops going into the market it will decline." That is untrue and not how the market works. There is no "money in and money out" with regards to securities. Every outstanding security must be held at every point in time. There is no "money flowing into stocks" and "money flowing out of stocks". That's not how it works. Every security must be held by someone at some point. If it were as simple as "money stops going into the market" then the market would just collapse because it implies no buyers. However, we know there is always a buyer for every seller and always a seller for every buyer. That's what makes a market. It is the eagerness and/or willingless to buy/sell a security that moves price, not money flowing into or out of a security. 9/22/15
^^^ ie. Supply and Demand for said security. The relative price preference is what moves the price action. 9/23/15
Time to go long here. The day is 9/24/15 at 11:11 am and the price to go long on the ES is 1893-1900. Upside target of ES 2000. 9/24/15
I predicted the bottom yesterday within 5 points. Can I do it again? I think so. Time to go long again here at ES 1917-1925. Market should kill the shorts going into the close by ramping up in the last hour all the way up to ES 1970. 9/25/15
We hit the bottom line exactly yesterday and now rising off it. Looks like this prediction is more and more likely going to play out. 9/30/15
Let us hope 11/4/15
It looks like we'll have to wait until tomorrow's employment report for a major swing high as it looks like the market wants to go up to ES 2115. Best area for a major high is now 2112-2125. 11/5/15