View: Secular Bull and Bear Markets

Will someone smarter than I comment on this ? 8/2/12

The main point of this chart would appear to be that previous bear markets haven't really ended until the market was at least 50% this trend line, so our little Mar '09 dip down to 10% below wasn't the end. If Mar '09 wasn't the bottom and isn't the start of a new bull market, then we might be just riding a stimulus-driven bear market rally and we could see some major downside in the future. I don't know if this chart is God's gift to big-picture market analysis or not, but several of the really smart & experienced dudes I follow (Bill Fleckenstein & friends) think that AFTER whatever rally we're going to get from QE3 we'll see a large market decline (sorry, they don't attempt to quantify "large"). Personally, I don't expect any QE3 rally to last more than a few months, but there should be no need to over-anticipate the decline by guessing the top. Wait until it really starts to go ... there'll be plenty of money still left to be made & you won't get your hand handed to you by being early. 8/26/12