Recap
Although EUR/CHF bearish cypher got completed last week @1.2080's this pair proves to be difficult to trade from risk/rewards standpoint. The whole move from C to D contained only about +25 pips of profit, which is far from ideal. Meanwhile looking ahead for the coming week JPY looks very bullish for a week if looking at currency board below. Pairs like USD/JPY and AUD/JPY looks overly extended to the upside will struggle to see new highs for this pair this week in my book. GBP is covered with uncertainty due to referendum for Scottish independence on September 18, although British currency weakened over the last couple of weeks some GBP pairs are looking bullish. Personally i am likely stay away from this currency due to likely volatility to the both sides with uncertainty still not being priced.
Weekly Currency Board
AUD
Bearish
Short AUD/JPY long GBP/AUD
USD
Bearish
Short USD/JPY
EUR
Bearish
Shorts EUR/NZD
NZD
Bullish
Long NZD/CAD, NZD/CHF short EUR/NZD
GBP
Bullish
Long GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CHF
CHF
Bearish
Shorts CHF/JPY
Long GBP/CHF, NZD/CHF
JPY
Bullish
Short AUD/JPY, CHF/JPY, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY
CAD
Bearish
Short CAD/JPY long NZD/CAD
Prime Risk Events (UTC time)
Monday
Japanese GDP (Q2, final), 12.50am: Quarter-on-quarter growth in this economy is expected to shrink by 1.8% in the final reading, from a previous estimate of -1.7%.
Market to watch: Nikkei 225, USD/JPY
Tuesday
Bank of Japan minutes (Sept), 12.50am: Recent comments by BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda have tended towards the optimistic, with the target of 2% inflation still expected to be reached. The minutes should reflect this, with the usual caveats that more easing is always a possibility.
Market to watch: Nikkei 225, USD/JPYUK industrial & mfg production (July), 9.30am: The year-on-year expectations for these data sets are expected to show improvement, which may support the pound.
Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBPUS JOLTS job openings (July), 3pm: The June figure was 4.67 million, so any improvement over this figure is likely to give the US dollar a lift.
Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses
Wednesday
Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision, statement & press conference (Sept), 10pm: The New Zealand central bank is expected to hold rates unchanged at 3.5%.
Market to watch: NZD/USD
Thursday
Australian unemployment rate (August), 2.30am: The jobless rate in Australia is expected to drop back slightly to 6.3% from 6.4% in July.
Market to watch: S&P/ASX 200, AUD/USDChinese CPI (August), 2.30am: In a possibly worrying sign, inflation in China is forecast to fall to 2.2% year-on-year from 2.3% in July.
Market to watch: USD/JPY, China A50, Hang SengGerman CPI (August, final), 7am: The rate for the month is not expected to change from the current estimate of 0.8%.
Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBPUS initial jobless claims, 1.30pm: The figure last week rose by 4,000 to 302,000, back above the 300K mark. The figure has been below 300K in four of the last seven weeks, a very strong sign.
Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses
Friday
Eurozone industrial production (July), employment (Q2), 10am: Industrial production is expected to rebound in July’s data, rising by 0.5% from June’s dire 0.3% figure. Meanwhile, look for any signs employment growth is rising from the Q1 figure of 0.2% year-on-year.
Market to watch: EStoxx 50, EUR/USD, EUR/GBPUS retail sales (August), 1.30pm: Advance retail sales were flat in July, but the August figure is expected to show growth of 0.3%.
Market to watch: US indices, dollar crossesUS University of Michigan consumer confidence (Sept, preliminary), 2.55pm: The preliminary reading for the month is expected to be 83, up from August’s final reading of 82.5.
Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses
EUR/JPY
In terms of JPY bullish coiling mentioned earlier see two patterns setting up below.
CHF/JPY
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