View: Blanks of the trader

Blanks of the trader

Content added from mofutures.blogspot.com
Recap

Last two weeks were clearly disappointing across major FX pairs, with volatility clearly below the average. The only opportunity was playing AUD weakness in relation to majors on a shorter time frames, however to be fair the ones who have booked holidays for this time did not loose much in FX markets. Opposite to FX, equities had sharp sell off in US, whether it is longer term correction or temporary pullback still remains to be seen.

Risk events

In terms of keep markets going these are events that are likely to trigger more action across the board for coming week (all listed events UK time). 

Monday US pending home sales, Mar (3pm): The month-on-month figure is expected to bounce back with growth of 0.9%, from -0.8% in Feb. Market to watch: Dollar crossesDallas Fed manufacturing index, Apr (3.30pm): This survey of activity in the south-west is expected to rise to 6 from 4.9. Market to watch: Dollar crosses Tuesday UK Q1 GDP, first reading (9.30am): UK growth is forecast to accelerate to 3.2% for the first quarter, but the first reading will rely on incomplete data and will be subject to revisions. Market to watch: GBP/USDGerman CPI, Apr (1pm): Year-on-year price growth in Germany is forecast to rise to 1.4% from 1%. Market to watch: EUR/USDUS S&P/Case-Shiller housing index, Feb (1pm): House price growth year-on-year in 20 major US cities is set to drop back to 12.9% in Feb from 13.2%. However, this data will be two months old so its value is limited. Market to watch: Dollar crosses Wednesday Japan industrial production, Mar (12.50am): Japanese inflation recently rose closer to the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Industrial production is expected to rise to 7.2%. Market to watch: USD/JPY, Japan 225German unemployment, Apr (8.55am): No change is forecast here, with the rate staying at 6.7%. Market to watch: EUR/USDEurozone CPI, Apr (9am): This is forecast to rise to 1% YoY from 0.7% Market to watch: EUR/USDUS ADP employment report, Apr (1.15pm): The prelude to non-farms starts here, with job numbers predicted to increase by 210K from 191K last month. Market to watch: US indicesUS Q1 GDP (1.30pm): US growth is forecast to slow to 1.1% from 2.6% a year ago. Market to watch: Dollar crossesUS Chicago PMI, Apr (1.45pm): Manufacturing around Chicago is expected to grow to 56.5 from 55.9, moving further into expansion territory. Market to watch: US indicesFederal Open Market Committee (7pm): The Fed is not expected to make any changes in the rate of quantitative easing tapering here. No press conference is scheduled so the risk of unexpected comments is eliminated. Market to watch: All indices and FX Thursday China manufacturing PMI, Apr (2am): Manufacturing growth in China is expected to rise to 50.5, moving further into expansion territory. Market to watch: AUD/USD, FTSE 100US weekly initial jobless claims (1.30pm): The weekly survey of first-time unemployment claimants. Market to watch: Dollar crosses Friday France, Germany, eurozone manufacturing PMI, Apr (8.55am – 9am): The surveys of manufacturing growth in the region will help gauge the strength of the eurozone economy. Market to watch: EUR/USDUK construction PMI, Apr (9.30am): Construction is the smallest sector of the UK economy, so the impact of this PMI is limited. Market to watch: GBP/USDEurozone unemployment, March (10am): This is expected to drop to 6.6% from 6.7%. Market to watch: EUR/USD, Germany 30US non-farm payrolls, Apr (1.30pm): The monthly employment report is forecast to see a growth of 210K from 192K last month. Market to watch: Everything!
AUD/USD

In terms of trading setups there is bullish BAT setup on 4 hours chart that came fairly close to completion last week. We have seen small pullback from there, however this setup remains to be valid as long as price stays below 0.9375's this week. Will be looking to buy @0.924's level with up move anticipation for shortcoming future. 

 Have a good one traders!

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