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Weekly log chart of USD/TRY showing a cup and handle formation. Turkey's central bank has thrown most of its foreign reserves at flatlining USD/TRY over the last few weeks. The currency is about to be downgraded to the same level as many countries in Africa. I think that there is no limit as to how high this will go. But let's pretend that an Andrews Pitchfork might put a ceiling on where this goes. Where the handle of the pitchfork is buried in mid-January of 2008.


Gee. Maybe Turkey’s central bank knows something that I don’t know. Like, Syria‘s, Lebanon’s, Iraq’s, Greece‘s and Iran’s economies are wrecked, and its own wobbly economy isn’t much more than a disguised kleptocracy. Just what it needs: a stronger currency relative to its immediate neighbors’. The lira might well appreciate; I don’t know anything about that. But do I want to have anything to do with Erdogan’s Turkey or that unstable region? 7/28/20
Up 2% today. GBPTRY and EURTRY are up 2.5%. 8/5/20