ES - Daily - 4.11.16.png
ES daily. This is not investment advice.
We aren't going to 1945 first anymore?
@Pierce: Great question. A market price chart is a picture containing information about the market. Every day, new information is added so an analysis can change at any moment based on new information. My new analysis indicates that, assuming price holds here, that we are still in an uptrend, but likely a left shoulder of a final wave of an uptrend. Often the market goes farther and higher than even the best analysts predict. This seems to have happened to me as well, but I am nimble and flexible so I recognize when I have likely gotten caught too early. I believe we are now about to embark on a final spike rally to a move above ES 2071, perhaps up to ES 2090-2095, or maybe even marginally above 2100. However, the market is still showing a lot of distribution intraday, so my guess is that we are in a left shoulder of a rounded top and we still need to form the "head" which should form on a retest of the recent 2071 high. The question is what kind of retest will it be? Will it be a lower high? Will it be a marginal new high that immediately fails and falls lower back to neckline support? Will it instead be an exact double top (unlikely)? So as analysts it can be very helpful to know where in the cycle the market is. I now believe we are in the topping cycle, but momentum will probably still lift the market maybe another 50 ES points higher. If the market can't hold the ES 2025 level, then my analysis is wrong and the top is already in. For now, my guess is we still need to work off some upside fluff (momentum) before a stronger decline can begin.
Dink that sure sounded good. Thought about running for President?
I love how people give a chart 1 star after it called the exact move to the day. There are some brilliant people here, lol. Anyway, the target has been reached so I am now no longer bullish and neutral. Whether or not the market can hold above 2070 will determine whether it is a fakeout or a trend move higher. My guess is we are in a topping pattern that will top between ES 2070-2090.
Dink today's action has shown this was a great call. By the way my previous comment was meant as just a good natured tease.