Browse Stacks: Trading: Derivatives: Weekly.jpg
Thought I'd have another look at the weekly chart to see if there was anything new that might make sense. The Black Swan downtrend trendline is the one that I've got my magnifying glass on. I've not included the Fibonacci retracement because we already know that price is a smidgen just above the 50% retracement (smidgens can sometimes make a difference and sometimes they don't, that's life!). But what I found fairly reassuring being positioned short is that the last green candle has kissed that Black Swan trendline. That trendline is suggesting that in the new week after this long weekend that price has no business being up there at the start of the new week. Also the lower trendline connecting the last two dips is suggesting that there will be another lower low.
If buyers of $SPX honestly believe that the SPX500 has been unaffected by the Black Swan virus because of the bailouts then let them buy with gusto.
The lower trendline of the large triange suggests that there is more opportunity for downside than that last lower low. And even if it is pretending to represent an IH&S pattern there is absolutely no way this is going to 4000 within the next year.
The obvious is that volatility is up, the green candles have retraced 50% of the downside move which pierced long term support convincingly. This V-shaped recovery nonsense is not happening.