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AUD/USD BAT pattern long got filled in the middle of last week pretty much with textbook precision @0.9236's area. There has been many ups and downs since then, we came close to first target, before all the madness started with NFP reports where it looked like the trade will be a loser. There was sharp turnaround since then, leaving long shadow on 4 hour candle. As it stands at the moment the trade is in the money, but not the winner yet. In retrospective the senseless volatility around some major events that did not give any direction to this trade gave some food for though that this trade could be executed in a better way. Having enormous spikes at around events like NFP can easily take the stop of position that is right directionally. Thankfully it did not happen this time, however traders with tighter stops may be out of what seems to be profitable trade by now. With volatility as a given at this type of events, perhaps the smarter way to execute this trade is to employ CALL options, that allows to take directional bias on the long side without the risk of being stopped out for no good reason.

Risk events

In terms of keep markets going these are events that are likely to trigger more action across the board for coming week (all listed events UK time).

Tuesday Australian Trade Balance, April; Cash Rate decision (2.30am): A small decline to AU$1.04 billion in the trade surplus is expected, down from last month’s AU$1.2 billion. This would mark the fourth consecutive positive month. No change expected in cash rate, to remain at 2.5%. Market to watch: Aussie crossesItalian and Spanish Services PMI, April (8.15am): Both are expected to see improvement on the March number, at 51.2 and 54.3 respectively. Market to watch: EUR/USDUK Services PMI, April (9.30am): A strong number is expected here once again, with a marginal increase to 57.9 from March’s 57.6. Market to watch: Sterling crosses, GBP/USD Wednesday German factory orders, April (7am): A leading indicator of production, a smaller rise is expected this month. 0.5% against the 0.6% rise in March. Market to watch: EUR/USD, DAXFOMC Chair Janet Yellen to testify before US Congress, 3pm onwards: The prepared statement may give clues to interest rate hike decisions. The Q&A session will be more informative.  Market to watch: Everything (dollar crosses particularly) Thursday BoE Asset purchase facility and rate statement (12pm): No change in monetary policy is expected at this point. Rate to remain at 0.5%. Market to watch: GBP/USDECB rate decision (12.45pm) and press conference (1.30pm): The highlight of the week. Low inflation levels and high euro FX rates. No change to interest rate expected but we may see some near-term stimulus alluded to in Mario Draghi’s statement. Market to watch: EUR/USD Friday UK manufacturing production, April (9.30am): The UK economic recovery may not be balanced but a small rise of 0.4% is expected in the sector this month. Market to watch: GBP/USDUS JOLTS Job openings, April (3pm): The number of job openings during the reported month and one of Janet Yellen’s favoured metrics. A rise to 4.21 million is expected now. Market to watch: EUR/USD, equity indices CAC40

French index offers 2618 pattern that just completed on 4 hours chart. There is likely shift to the downside for this market. Area @4465 is a sell in my book  with stops above 4505's. 

 Have a good one traders!

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