View: CL_4Hour_Feb022015.jpg


Crude bears DO NOT FRET ... just yet. 

Coming into Monday morning trading (Feb. 2nd) we have us a familiar set-up. Someone call Bill Murray. 

Coming into last Thursday we had three reasons to look for a corrective bounce in /cl: 

1. Three drives to a short-term bottom: 

2. A Fibonacci bear-shark pattern zone: 

3. Options expiry last Friday for /rb and /ho (Gasoline and Heating Oil futures) 

A Fourth reason would be end of month shenanigans, and a fifth would be my prior chart showing Gasoline futures completing a full extension of the monthly chart bear wedge breakdown. 

I'd argue the financial media are giving too much credit to declining rig counts, and ISIS capturing a small refinery in Iraq... while ignoring the technical facts staring them in the face.


Note in the picture, that purple 1.618% line is the extension off the monthly /cl bear wedge breakdown. 
The white dash line is the trendline off the 1998 low. 
Fibonacci pattern analysis argues /cl should rise to test at least $50.80, up to the 1.13% at $52.79, before reversing lower. 2/2/15
I think oil has made some kind of bottom at $43 as my technicals indicate. I guess we'll find out. 2/2/15
I have 35.10 still as the target based off fibonacci projection of monthly chart bear wedge break. 
A daily close above $51.73 would cause me to re-think that 2/2/15
I don't doubt $35.10, just talking about a shorter term move to maybe $60. 2/2/15
Gotcha. 2/2/15
UPDATE: Tuesday, Feb. 3rd 7:55 a.m. EST 
/cl rose into its fibonacci reversal zone overnight, and wouldn't you know it... /cl coming off now *shock* (not really) 2/3/15
UPDATE: Tuesday, Feb. 3rd 1:08 p.m. EST 
With the 4-hour candle breaking and closing above prior swing high of 51.73, all timeframes 4-hour and lower on /cl are now bullish. 
52.79 is the last bastion of the bears, based on fibonacci price patterns 2/3/15