Crude bears DO NOT FRET ... just yet.
Coming into Monday morning trading (Feb. 2nd) we have us a familiar set-up. Someone call Bill Murray.
Coming into last Thursday we had three reasons to look for a corrective bounce in /cl:
1. Three drives to a short-term bottom:
2. A Fibonacci bear-shark pattern zone:
3. Options expiry last Friday for /rb and /ho (Gasoline and Heating Oil futures)
A Fourth reason would be end of month shenanigans, and a fifth would be my prior chart showing Gasoline futures completing a full extension of the monthly chart bear wedge breakdown.
I'd argue the financial media are giving too much credit to declining rig counts, and ISIS capturing a small refinery in Iraq... while ignoring the technical facts staring them in the face.
The white dash line is the trendline off the 1998 low.
Fibonacci pattern analysis argues /cl should rise to test at least $50.80, up to the 1.13% at $52.79, before reversing lower.
A daily close above $51.73 would cause me to re-think that
/cl rose into its fibonacci reversal zone overnight, and wouldn't you know it... /cl coming off now *shock* (not really)
With the 4-hour candle breaking and closing above prior swing high of 51.73, all timeframes 4-hour and lower on /cl are now bullish.
52.79 is the last bastion of the bears, based on fibonacci price patterns