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We would like to clear the air on Facebook: It is not now and nor will it ever be a Google. For the last few months we’ve heard nothing but Facebook, Facebook, Facebook! The problem is not that the company won’t succeed, it’s the timing and what is going to actually help it make money. When you give everything away for free, most companies find it next to impossible to monetize. With the general public not in a spending mood, one has to wonder what the firm’s mission statement really means, so we checked it (… on Google). Facebook’s mission statement says: “Facebook’s mission is to give people the power to share and make the world more open and connected.” This is what it looked like before they edited it in 2008: “Facebook helps you connect and share with the people in your life.” With an explosion in internet marketing and thousand of firms popping up all over the place, not all will use Facebook. The smaller ones don’t require millions of people to sign up because they have figured out what people like. Additionally, internet marketing has become a lot more complicated. It’s not as easy as it sounds, and even when you have a “good” internet marketing plan it doesn’t always mean you will get your desired  results.

We have heard enough about Facebook for now. It’s time to see if the company can deliver to shareholders. One of the uphill battles the company is facing is outlined in this article on BusinessInsider.com:

This INSANE Graphic Shows How Ludicrously Complicated Social Media Marketing Is Now

by Charlie Minato

Maybe this is the reason General Motors went “mental” and pulled its Facebook ad budget.

Digital marketing is confusing—really confusing—as this insane graphic shows (below).

Trying to navigate through the various new social media categories, blogs, sharing sites, and social media firms is an absolute mess.

This depiction of the digital marketing landscape was shown at a Buddy Media event marking the launch of the social marketing software agency’s new suite of measurement tools.

You can click to enlarge it, but that won’t make it look any simpler.Bonus points for reader Ryan, who realized Pinterest isn’t on there.

Click  to enlarge it.

Our view:

The reason I put out all the 200-day moving averages yesterday was because there is almost always a retest. While we favor the long side, we also know the markets are in trouble. So I will put them out again in today’s email: SPX 200-day MA is 1297.50; SPM day session is 1276; E-mini rolling front month is 1279; NDN is 2425; NDM day session is 2418/2425. Are we going there today? Probably not, but we do think a retest of the recent lows is very possible. Let’s face it, the Greeks are broke and no matter how much money is thrown at them it’s not going to work. With that in mind, we have two choices: 1) look for a spot to buy the early weakness and then sell the rally or 2) let the SPM uptick, then sell it. Crude down, EC down in the 126 handles, dollar on a 4-month high, big HP layoffs and  Facebook getting faced and Greeks running out on their bills is all very negative. You take it from there. As always, keep an eye on the 10-handle rule and please use stops.

For today:It’s 6:00 am and the SPM is down 9.7 handles at 1305.00, crude is down 92 cents at 90.93 and the EC is trading 1.2652, down 68.In Asia 11 out of 11 markets closed lower (Hang Seng down 1.33%).In Europe 12 out of 12 markets are trading lower (CAC-2.08%, DAX -1.76%).The main headline this morning: “Greece Preparing To Exit Euro Zone”Today’s earnings and economic calendar starts with the weekly mortgage apps, FHFA home price index, oil inventories, 5-yr note auction, Minneapolis Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks, CME shareholders mtg, Kraft shareholders mtg; earnings from Hewlett-Packard, Big Lots, Toll Brothers, NetApp, Pandora

VOLUME: 2.44mil ESM and 15k tradedSPREADS: 750 SPM/SPU spreads tradedFV: S&P -9.70, NASDAQ -22.00

For anyone interested in the volumes and open interest, you can find them athttp://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/build-a-report.html  Equities are page 11.

CLOSING PRINT Video: http://www.mrtopstep.com/videos/?id=17367

TUESDAY’S WRAP-UP: SEC calls for reviews of Facebook, MS & JPM & Event risk

Tuesday’s index trade started with 383k ESM and 1.6k SPM traded on Globex, trading range 1312.25 – 1320.25 / Monday’s high was 1316.00, settlement 1315.70. Yesterday saw a carbon copy of Monday’s short cover bounce with barely a pullback in yesterday’s early morning session anyway… After trading a morning low of 1314.00 the spoos trended higher to trade a high of 1326.50 before the euro started fading as event / headline(s) risk knocked the equities off the morning stride. Comments from the SEC looking into JP Morgan’s (JPM) financial reporting, Fitch reporting the likelihood that a third longer-term refinancing operation (LTRO) will be needed by certain banks in ‘peripheral’ eurozone countries is increasing while also, downgrading Banco Popular Portugals Covered Bonds, Egan Jones downgrades Spain, Atlanta Fed President Lockhart saying he needs to see more evidence of further deterioration for further QE and the IMF calls for more QE today along with more LTRO and rate cuts…a busy midday tape, but when the dust settled the spoos held the opening range on the back and fill before popping back to 1322 area by 11:30 CT. The VIX traded as low as 19.98 on the equity rally and rallied to 21.98 on the headlines and settled in around 21.15 – 21.50 area going into the noon hour, right through the midafternoon and tied the spoos in the 1320/22 area. Crude was trading soft and closed at 91.85, down another $1. About 2:13CT a report out of Philadelphia International Airport – a pilot on approach reportedly saw a smoke trail and felt a blast, but it did not hit the plane. The spoos quickly eroded and Greek headlines from former Greek PM Papademos stating “preparations for a Greece Euro are being considered and estimates of EUR 500bln-EUR 1trl of Greek exit cost underscores magnitude of consequence” pushed the equities to further lows. Just before the cash close Goldman bought 800 SPMs at 1310.00. The VIX traded a new daily high of 23.19 as the SPM printed a LOD at 1307.80 as the closing imbalance showed 26 of 30 DOW to buy and the broader market showed $260M to buy. The spoos rallied 10 handles off the lows, trading 1317.00 on the cash close before settling at 1314.80.

US Gasoline Use Highest Since Dec. 23

US 4-Week Gasoline Use -3.9% Vs Yr Ago

Year-To-Yr Drop In Gasoline Use Is Lowest Since Aug

Facebook drops again as SEC calls for review http://t.co/mRfhzlQO

Morgan Stanley’s $2.4 Billion Facebook Short  http://bit.ly/KwbcZI

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MrTopStep Charts

MrTopStep Charts “HOW DO YOU SPELL RELIEF? BOLLINGERS!” http://www.mrtopstep.com/2012/05/mrtopstep-charts-how-do-you-spell-relief-bollingers/

WebinarsMarc Nicolas: “Master Probability Trading Overlays” https://mrtopstep.omnovia.com/archivesMark Sebastian: “Trading Directional Spreads” https://mrtopstep.omnovia.com/archivesMike Vacchi: “Keys to Trading Using Pivot Points and Volatility” https://mrtopstep.omnovia.com/archivesJeff Quinto: Downside risk and protection (“Humpty Dumpty”) https://mrtopstep.omnovia.com/archives

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ECONOMIC CALENDAR

http://www.mrtopstep.com/economic-calendar/

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CONTRIBUTORS’ CORNER

SPX CHARTS

Roger Volz, BGC

SP 60 min chart and indicators….making first underside test downside break line May 17. …..first area of grouped support stands out 1309-1305 (to maintain repair phase in this time scale)….ST OB 1342.50 ; ST OS < 1280

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DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable.  Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.  Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities.  MrTopStep, its officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report.