User: LZ: China: 201712reinv.png

Rates will rise uncontrollably when investors lose confidence in sovereign debt, and it will happen simultaneously in USA, EU, UK, Japan and China. I see too many headwinds at this moment for a breakout. Although I admit that rising rates could be the trigger itself because of the existing debt pile.  

Indicators such as industrial production show no major increase in economic activity in the USA. Real GDP hasn't accelerated. Business surveys show confidence, but no big uptick in investment and hiring (though the repatriation of cash might change that). I think China is still driving the train, and their fiscal/monetary stimulus bursts are fading more quickly, with far less impact. Chinese real estate investment is back on the cusp of contraction. Chinese Fixed asset investment contracted in December.