User: Tim Knight: Historical Example

20170714_eod6.jpg (1185×614)
20170714_eod6.jpg (1185×614)
The stock market is near peak euphoria here (tracked by the ratio of Fwd P/E to VIX)...
Tim Knight
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Investor-Psychology-100k-062417.png (900×541)
Investor-Psychology-100k-062417.png (900×541)
A long view of the psychology of the markets
Tim Knight
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SP500-Comparison-061617.png (1102×687)
SP500-Comparison-061617.png (1102×687)
Historically speaking, such levels of exuberance have tended to have poor outcomes for investors who did not reali...
Tim Knight
Hedge Funds Have Never Been This Bullish About Small-Cap Stocks | Zero Hedge
Hedge Funds Have Never Been This Bullish About Small-Cap Stocks...
Over 57,000 Russell 2000 e-mini contract longs were added in the last two weeks - the most since July 2008 - leavi...
Tim Knight
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20170615_EOD6.jpg (960×486)
20170615_EOD6.jpg (960×486)
Notably, the US Macro Surprise Index has dropped for 13 straight weeks (since The Fed hiked in March) - this is th...
Tim Knight
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stock-bond-ratio-could-be-creating-double-top-and-hands-pattern-june-15.jpg (1293×675)
stock-bond-ratio-could-be-creating-double-top-and-hands-pattern-jun...
Below looks at the Stock/Bond ratio (SPX/ZROZ), using the two assets from above. The ratio in our humble opinion,...
Tim Knight
20170512_EOD3.jpg (965×971)
20170512_EOD3.jpg (965×971)
The last time US Macro and stocks decoupled like this was in mid 2015 and did not end well for stocks...
Tim Knight
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2017.05.03 - Prudent Speculator 2.jpg (1254×1080)
2017.05.03 - Prudent Speculator 2.jpg (1254×1080)
'Reputable' Investing Newsletter To Millennials: "If You Do Not Have 100% In Equities, You Are Crazy"
Tim Knight
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spy-nifty-50-chart-april-18.jpg (1567×736)
spy-nifty-50-chart-april-18.jpg (1567×736)
It was 50 stocks back then, just add a “0” today and make it the nifty 500? S&P 500 Long-Term “Weekly” Chart
Tim Knight
transports-could-be-repeating-1999-and-2007-pattern-april-6.jpg (1570×730)
transports-could-be-repeating-1999-and-2007-pattern-april-6.jpg...
The transports are a key cog in our economy, so they also tend to be a key indicator for stocks historically.
Tim Knight
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20170402_bonds.jpg (768×452)
20170402_bonds.jpg (768×452)
Stock-To-Bond Ratio Back At 2007 Peak
Tim Knight
20170328_stocks.jpg (968×504)
20170328_stocks.jpg (968×504)
The Last Time Americans Felt This Good About Stocks, The Dot Com Bubble Burst 2 Months Later
Tim Knight
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20170324_durgoods2.jpg (961×488)
20170324_durgoods2.jpg (961×488)
Durable Goods Orders have gone nowhere for five years...
Tim Knight
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transports-creating-repeating-1999-and-2007-patterns-march-20.jpg (1569×733)
transports-creating-repeating-1999-and-2007-patterns-march-20.jp...
Transports; Could be repeating 1999 & 2007 pattern
Tim Knight
C7CzYOuU4AE8Suz.jpg:large (1296×675)
C7CzYOuU4AE8Suz.jpg:large (1296×675)
Tim Knight
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20170310_wealth.jpg (961×509)
20170310_wealth.jpg (961×509)
Household Wealth Has Never Been Higher Relative To Income
Tim Knight
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Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective - dshort - Advisor Pers...
Last year was a remarkable one for yields. The 10-year note hit its historic closing low of 1.37% in July and then...
Tim Knight
djia
djia
Amazing long-term view of stock uptrend and channel
Tim Knight
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pic3268b577a81977084b90f2751b9a7b6b.png (894×513)
pic3268b577a81977084b90f2751b9a7b6b.png (894×513)
Market recoveries and declines measured in time
Tim Knight
transports-could-be-repeating-1999-and-2007-pattern-feb-3.jpg (1568×734)
transports-could-be-repeating-1999-and-2007-pattern-feb-3.jpg (1...
Third major instance of a very bearish setup in Dow Transports
Tim Knight
20170131_macro.jpg (946×486)
20170131_macro.jpg (946×486)
What is perhaps more immediately worrying is the seasonal tendency for a post-fiscal-year surge in Economic data f...
Tim Knight
20170127_GDP_Obama.jpg (1719×1231)
20170127_GDP_Obama.jpg (1719×1231)
And worse still, Barack Obama is the only president in US history to never have a year of economic growth over 3.0%...
Tim Knight
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correction 1.jpg (1314×648)
correction 1.jpg (1314×648)
Until recently. As the next chart shows, we are now 11.2 months removed from the bottom of the last correction. Wh...
Tim Knight
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20170114_RV5.jpg (994×780)
20170114_RV5.jpg (994×780)
Reagan and Trump
Tim Knight
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20170114_RV10.jpg (1126×807)
20170114_RV10.jpg (1126×807)
Bubble three
Tim Knight
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stock-bond-ratios-at-2007-extremes-jan-9.jpg (1296×680)
stock-bond-ratios-at-2007-extremes-jan-9.jpg (1296×680)
TLT/SPY is awfully similar (umm, identical) to 2007
Tim Knight
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junk-bond-divergence-to-stocks-2-years-again-dec-15.jpg (1568×705)
junk-bond-divergence-to-stocks-2-years-again-dec-15.jpg (1568×705)
Junk bond divergence
Tim Knight
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20161208_CAPE.jpg (857×404)
20161208_CAPE.jpg (857×404)
PE levels back to 1929
Tim Knight
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hanson bubble.jpg (947×818)
hanson bubble.jpg (947×818)
Houses NEVER more expensive
Tim Knight
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wmc161003c.png (791×690)
wmc161003c.png (791×690)
Presently, the median stock in the S&P 500 is more overvalued than at any point in U.S. history, easily exceeding...
Tim Knight
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Ct3dKCVWIAAGHGe.jpg:large (700×549)
Ct3dKCVWIAAGHGe.jpg:large (700×549)
Bubbles bubbles
Tim Knight
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citi twitter 1.jpg (1120×637)
citi twitter 1.jpg (1120×637)
Internet firm acquisitions typically turn out to be duds.
Tim Knight
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CskW68BXYAA0Tn3.jpg:large (2048×1767)
CskW68BXYAA0Tn3.jpg:large (2048×1767)
Empires past
Tim Knight
20160915 - Harvard 4.JPG (1212×881)
20160915 - Harvard 4.JPG (1212×881)
Male labor force participation
Tim Knight
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20160813_VIX5.jpg (1169×620)
20160813_VIX5.jpg (1169×620)
VIX is unprecedentedly low for an election year
Tim Knight
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20160730_bear1.jpg (994×580)
20160730_bear1.jpg (994×580)
Corporate profit plunge
Tim Knight
20160722_VIX1.jpg (956×505)
20160722_VIX1.jpg (956×505)
Equities are actually considered safer than bonds now. Freaky.
Tim Knight
2
joefriday-ndx-at-right-shoulder-june-10.jpg (1574×731)
joefriday-ndx-at-right-shoulder-june-10.jpg (1574×731)
Topping pattern on the NASDAQ
Tim Knight
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SP500-LongTerm-BearMarketSignals-060716.png (990×744)
SP500-LongTerm-BearMarketSignals-060716.png (990×744)
Secular bear market markers
Tim Knight
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20160607_fear.jpg (630×322)
20160607_fear.jpg (630×322)
Fear and Greed over the past couple of years
Tim Knight
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3491119_orig.jpg (562×800)
3491119_orig.jpg (562×800)
A beauty of a chart aligning margin debt with stock peaks
Tim Knight
djia-w2.png (2450×1092)
djia-w2.png (2450×1092)
Diagramming the central bank interference with free markets
Tim Knight
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nysiw6.png (1962×1180)
nysiw6.png (1962×1180)
$NYSI is now most overbought since spring of 2014:
Tim Knight
20160227_10202.jpg (935×597)
20160227_10202.jpg (935×597)
The long term moving averages suggest that anyone holding on to stocks is certifiably insane.
Tim Knight
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20160218_you1.jpg (960×506)
20160218_you1.jpg (960×506)
Analog time from the beartard
Tim Knight
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20160117_oilgold.jpg (1678×861)
20160117_oilgold.jpg (1678×861)
Barrels of oil per ounce of gold
Tim Knight
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SP500-MarketUpdate-020216-2.png (990×438)
SP500-MarketUpdate-020216-2.png (990×438)
The millionth chart showing how we are repeating what happened in 2000 and 2008 Sort of like an 8 year cycle, ain't it?
Tim Knight
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20160202_PEG_0.jpg (600×412)
20160202_PEG_0.jpg (600×412)
Stocks are more overpriced than they EVER HAVE BEEN, including 2000.
Tim Knight
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20160126_MSBear1.jpg (939×905)
20160126_MSBear1.jpg (939×905)
Current sell-off versus prior bear markets
Tim Knight
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20160107_EOD18.jpg (1095×637)
20160107_EOD18.jpg (1095×637)
This Is The Dow's Worst Start To The Year... Ever
Tim Knight
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