User: Tim Knight: Historical Example

AAPL in context_1
AAPL in context_1
A surprising perspective
Tim Knight
20171115_EOD8.jpg (959×1008)
20171115_EOD8.jpg (959×1008)
A beautiful analog...........
Tim Knight
1
20171110_eod10.jpg (965×509)
20171110_eod10.jpg (965×509)
first 12 month period in the history of the S&P 500 without a 3% drawdown. The VIX is also the lowest on record us...
Tim Knight
2
20171108_nasd.jpg (755×495)
20171108_nasd.jpg (755×495)
No 52-week high in the Nasdaq 100 has ever been accompanied by as few advancing stocks as today’s.
Tim Knight
1
20171106_huss3.jpg (668×564)
20171106_huss3.jpg (668×564)
On this measure, market valuations are now more extreme than at any point in history, including the 1929 and 2000...
Tim Knight
1
20171106_huss1.jpg (663×521)
20171106_huss1.jpg (663×521)
The chart below shows the median price/revenue ratio of S&P 500 component stocks, which set yet another record hig...
Tim Knight
1
bofa vol 1.jpg (678×408)
bofa vol 1.jpg (678×408)
We have now recorded 334 days without a 5% or more pullback (and 335 after today's close), the fourth longest peri...
Tim Knight
1
20171023_EOD2.jpg (961×486)
20171023_EOD2.jpg (961×486)
It has now been 242 days since the US equity market dipped by 3% or more... That has never, ever, happened before..
Tim Knight
2
3-Phases-Bull-Market-101917.png (900×673)
3-Phases-Bull-Market-101917.png (900×673)
As I have shown previously, these late stage “melt-ups” are not uncommon. In fact, as shown below, it is somethin...
Tim Knight
2
Dow-1000point-Closes-2009-Present.png (1758×960)
Dow-1000point-Closes-2009-Present.png (1758×960)
The chart below shows the 1000-point milestones of the Dow going back to 2009. After a long break between 18,000 a...
Tim Knight
valuation 18 out of 20 bofa.jpg (956×603)
valuation 18 out of 20 bofa.jpg (956×603)
The S&P 500 Is Now Overvalued On 18 Of 20 Metrics
Tim Knight
20171007_stock.jpg (962×504)
20171007_stock.jpg (962×504)
As StockBoardAsset shows on the 24-year monthly ratio chart below, bulls have pushed the S&P:VIX price into uncharted...
Tim Knight
1
20170816_best4.png (1175×619)
20170816_best4.png (1175×619)
The Dow has hit 31 all-time highs in 2017 and has done so with no more than a 3% pullback.
Tim Knight
2
20170816_best1.jpg (508×489)
20170816_best1.jpg (508×489)
The S&P 500 has not seen a drawdown of more than 3% since the election last November. As PensionPartners' Charlie...
Tim Knight
20170811_EOD12.jpg (1182×617)
20170811_EOD12.jpg (1182×617)
My favorite analog right now...........
Tim Knight
4
Logarithmic-Chart-Stock-Market-Crash-1929.jpg (553×373)
Logarithmic-Chart-Stock-Market-Crash-1929.jpg (553×373)
Crash of 1929 - this is what I keep hidden under my mattress.
Tim Knight
2
20170714_eod6.jpg (1185×614)
20170714_eod6.jpg (1185×614)
The stock market is near peak euphoria here (tracked by the ratio of Fwd P/E to VIX)...
Tim Knight
4
Investor-Psychology-100k-062417.png (900×541)
Investor-Psychology-100k-062417.png (900×541)
A long view of the psychology of the markets
Tim Knight
1
SP500-Comparison-061617.png (1102×687)
SP500-Comparison-061617.png (1102×687)
Historically speaking, such levels of exuberance have tended to have poor outcomes for investors who did not reali...
Tim Knight
Hedge Funds Have Never Been This Bullish About Small-Cap Stocks | Zero Hedge
Hedge Funds Have Never Been This Bullish About Small-Cap Stocks...
Over 57,000 Russell 2000 e-mini contract longs were added in the last two weeks - the most since July 2008 - leavi...
Tim Knight
1
20170615_EOD6.jpg (960×486)
20170615_EOD6.jpg (960×486)
Notably, the US Macro Surprise Index has dropped for 13 straight weeks (since The Fed hiked in March) - this is th...
Tim Knight
1
stock-bond-ratio-could-be-creating-double-top-and-hands-pattern-june-15.jpg (1293×675)
stock-bond-ratio-could-be-creating-double-top-and-hands-pattern-jun...
Below looks at the Stock/Bond ratio (SPX/ZROZ), using the two assets from above. The ratio in our humble opinion,...
Tim Knight
20170512_EOD3.jpg (965×971)
20170512_EOD3.jpg (965×971)
The last time US Macro and stocks decoupled like this was in mid 2015 and did not end well for stocks...
Tim Knight
5
2017.05.03 - Prudent Speculator 2.jpg (1254×1080)
2017.05.03 - Prudent Speculator 2.jpg (1254×1080)
'Reputable' Investing Newsletter To Millennials: "If You Do Not Have 100% In Equities, You Are Crazy"
Tim Knight
3
spy-nifty-50-chart-april-18.jpg (1567×736)
spy-nifty-50-chart-april-18.jpg (1567×736)
It was 50 stocks back then, just add a “0” today and make it the nifty 500? S&P 500 Long-Term “Weekly” Chart
Tim Knight
transports-could-be-repeating-1999-and-2007-pattern-april-6.jpg (1570×730)
transports-could-be-repeating-1999-and-2007-pattern-april-6.jpg...
The transports are a key cog in our economy, so they also tend to be a key indicator for stocks historically.
Tim Knight
2
20170402_bonds.jpg (768×452)
20170402_bonds.jpg (768×452)
Stock-To-Bond Ratio Back At 2007 Peak
Tim Knight
20170328_stocks.jpg (968×504)
20170328_stocks.jpg (968×504)
The Last Time Americans Felt This Good About Stocks, The Dot Com Bubble Burst 2 Months Later
Tim Knight
5
20170324_durgoods2.jpg (961×488)
20170324_durgoods2.jpg (961×488)
Durable Goods Orders have gone nowhere for five years...
Tim Knight
2
transports-creating-repeating-1999-and-2007-patterns-march-20.jpg (1569×733)
transports-creating-repeating-1999-and-2007-patterns-march-20.jp...
Transports; Could be repeating 1999 & 2007 pattern
Tim Knight
C7CzYOuU4AE8Suz.jpg:large (1296×675)
C7CzYOuU4AE8Suz.jpg:large (1296×675)
Tim Knight
4
20170310_wealth.jpg (961×509)
20170310_wealth.jpg (961×509)
Household Wealth Has Never Been Higher Relative To Income
Tim Knight
4
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective - dshort - Advisor Pers...
Last year was a remarkable one for yields. The 10-year note hit its historic closing low of 1.37% in July and then...
Tim Knight
djia
djia
Amazing long-term view of stock uptrend and channel
Tim Knight
1
pic3268b577a81977084b90f2751b9a7b6b.png (894×513)
pic3268b577a81977084b90f2751b9a7b6b.png (894×513)
Market recoveries and declines measured in time
Tim Knight
transports-could-be-repeating-1999-and-2007-pattern-feb-3.jpg (1568×734)
transports-could-be-repeating-1999-and-2007-pattern-feb-3.jpg (1...
Third major instance of a very bearish setup in Dow Transports
Tim Knight
20170131_macro.jpg (946×486)
20170131_macro.jpg (946×486)
What is perhaps more immediately worrying is the seasonal tendency for a post-fiscal-year surge in Economic data f...
Tim Knight
20170127_GDP_Obama.jpg (1719×1231)
20170127_GDP_Obama.jpg (1719×1231)
And worse still, Barack Obama is the only president in US history to never have a year of economic growth over 3.0%...
Tim Knight
2
correction 1.jpg (1314×648)
correction 1.jpg (1314×648)
Until recently. As the next chart shows, we are now 11.2 months removed from the bottom of the last correction. Wh...
Tim Knight
3
20170114_RV5.jpg (994×780)
20170114_RV5.jpg (994×780)
Reagan and Trump
Tim Knight
3
20170114_RV10.jpg (1126×807)
20170114_RV10.jpg (1126×807)
Bubble three
Tim Knight
2
stock-bond-ratios-at-2007-extremes-jan-9.jpg (1296×680)
stock-bond-ratios-at-2007-extremes-jan-9.jpg (1296×680)
TLT/SPY is awfully similar (umm, identical) to 2007
Tim Knight
1
junk-bond-divergence-to-stocks-2-years-again-dec-15.jpg (1568×705)
junk-bond-divergence-to-stocks-2-years-again-dec-15.jpg (1568×705)
Junk bond divergence
Tim Knight
3
20161208_CAPE.jpg (857×404)
20161208_CAPE.jpg (857×404)
PE levels back to 1929
Tim Knight
5
hanson bubble.jpg (947×818)
hanson bubble.jpg (947×818)
Houses NEVER more expensive
Tim Knight
2
wmc161003c.png (791×690)
wmc161003c.png (791×690)
Presently, the median stock in the S&P 500 is more overvalued than at any point in U.S. history, easily exceeding...
Tim Knight
1
Ct3dKCVWIAAGHGe.jpg:large (700×549)
Ct3dKCVWIAAGHGe.jpg:large (700×549)
Bubbles bubbles
Tim Knight
3
citi twitter 1.jpg (1120×637)
citi twitter 1.jpg (1120×637)
Internet firm acquisitions typically turn out to be duds.
Tim Knight
1
CskW68BXYAA0Tn3.jpg:large (2048×1767)
CskW68BXYAA0Tn3.jpg:large (2048×1767)
Empires past
Tim Knight
20160915 - Harvard 4.JPG (1212×881)
20160915 - Harvard 4.JPG (1212×881)
Male labor force participation
Tim Knight
5