Users: Tim Knight: All Pages
bfm6FA1.jpg (1023×607)
The headline factory orders rose just 0.4% MoM (half the 0.8% MoM expected) and worse still, the March data was re...
bfmEBF7.jpg (1023×612)
Core factory orders (ex-transports) was even worse, dropping 0.2% MoM (+0.2% MoM exp) - the third straight monthly...
CBO debt forecast 2.15.2023_5.jpg (1191×670)
US Debt Will Rise From $31 Trillion To $50 Trillion By 2030
2
bfmCF8A.jpg (1016×569)
bfm37CC_0.jpg (941×543)
Put/Call ratio across all stocks dropped to its lowest since March 2022...
4g6jj65xag3b1.png (1658×1354)
1
bfm3343.jpg (941×563)
And the put/call ratio across the entire market dropped to a critical level (led by call volume soaring) which in...
bfm5A47_1.jpg (941×563)
May also saw a massive divergence between cap-weight and equal-weight portfolio performance as breadth narrowed dr...
bfmA1C8.jpg (941×565)
Debt-Ceiling drama is fading fast with USA CDS compressing..
4f43962f7b273a22a24c16729a2c9d4c.png (755×355)
45% of corporates will be in the black out window by mid June.
the next bubble AI.jpg (1076×621)
2
bfm3D59.jpg (938×572)
Nasdaq was this high relative to small caps was the peak of the dotcom bubble...
median stock fwd pe.jpg (960×601)
The S&P 500 median stock forward P/E is 18.3x (in the top 15% of historical levels back to the mid-1990s;
image - 2023-05-18T125849.253.png (1269×669)
The equal-weighted S&P is unchanged YTD...
1
market breadth.jpg (744×445)
It is unusual to have breadth this low.
1
5 stocks 23% of spx.jpg (643×465)
5 stocks = 23% of S&P 500
2023-05-08_12-56-40.jpg (500×500)
The short sale ban in 2008
4jv9i6srxmxa1.jpg (577×596)
nasdaq adv decliner 4.26.jpg (1274×686)
Nasdaq breadth defined in this case by the advance/decline ratio, just hit a record low!
bfmA6F4_1.jpg (1039×644)
USA Sovereign risk has never been this high...
redemption.jpg (600×412)
This represents PURE PROFIT for gift card sellers
2023-04-22_14-02-54.jpg (565×432)
The U.S. dollar’s share of official global reserve currencies has gone from about 73 per cent in 2001 to around...
3
TSY cash.png (1280×757)
Ha ha ha ha
2
bfm1407_1.jpg (956×654)
US Sovereign credit risk spread hovering right at record highs
2
Hart 1.png (1280×880)
2
https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/aef6618d...
1
bfmAA_1.jpg (936×501)
Sovereign credit risk of the USA soared to a record high this week...
1
weaker labor markets.jpg (686×405)
Weaker labor market allows Fed to cut aggressively
1
global house price drop.jpg (677×397)
Global house prices falling is recessionary
global EPS BOfA collapse.jpg (686×393)
Global EPS growth on course for -10-15% YoY in H2’23
ISM below 45_0.jpg (678×404)
ISM < 45 = Recession
1
PMI vs negative payrolls.jpg (723×487)
46.3 means "manufacturing contraction on fu...
bfm3CFA.jpg (954×612)
Fed Chair Powell's favorite yield-curve-based recession-signal continues to plumb new depths of inversion...
idokxoqh2osa1.png (680×415)
record 2 week drop consolidated.jpg (1278×667)
Large and small bank loan change.jpg (1068×701)
d5cc55658a578d23603f5be9dfc25047.png (994×626)
The AAII bull-bear spread has moved sharply higher.
1
bfmC62D.jpg (990×652)
US unemployment is now worse than Russian unemployment...
bfm9FDE_0.jpg (990×660)
And tech is now trading almost as rich as it has ever traded to the overall market...
bfm7343.jpg (990×660)
P/E ratio back to pre-Covid HIGHS
1
22dde88c3fbc251022513b9265324da6.png (1340×876)
The gap between SPY and on balance volumes has widened even more...
hn4wgf2i0ppa1.jpg (1542×955)
bfm4B38_1.jpg (976×622)
bfm4F5C_2.jpg (1030×585)
1
credit suisse 2023-03-19_11-11-21.jpg (1266×672)
1
FDIC net unrealized losses.jpg (1004×767)
Snag_31e99f4.png (948×617)
Bloomberg data reveals that IPOs have only managed to raise $2.4 billion in 2023, which is 43% lower than the amou...
1
6lqdrjb7byna1.png (544×516)
99% of borrowers have a mortgage rate lower than the current market rate
1
net unrealized losses SIVB_0.jpg (1278×691)
1
so9e0yd2egma1.jpg (1554×680)
1
wm6al35xvcma1.png (680×369)
2023-03-06_14-35-20.jpg (1280×768)
bfmBD1B.jpg (991×606)
Finally, for some context as to how massively the market has shifted its perception about The Fed's rate trajector...
bfm4CCB.jpg (1053×585)
The pivot is gone and the terminal rate has soared and yet stocks refuse to face reality...
2023-03-03_05-06-09.jpg (802×413)
https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/529378e6...
Taylor Rule suggests rates should be at..........10.2%
7clll9z0e5ja1.jpg (1200×579)
2
death zone.jpg (1160×537)
ex 1 - liquidity oxygen.jpg (1070×481)
US govt spe3nding next 10 years_0.jpg (620×484)
1
2023-02-17_08-05-32_1.jpg (978×579)
Stocks continue to be bullishly decoupled from The Fed's bank reserves...
2023-02-17_09-58-14.jpg (569×369)
Goldman notes investors' sentiment has turned much more bullish since the start of the year
1yrcb6chkpia1.png (1587×902)
a4gnyhej2uia1.jpg (1142×588)
San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market Crashes, Prices Plunge 35%...
San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market Crashes, Prices Plunge 35%...
2023-02-15_09-34-32.jpg (1280×890)
US equity markets have been - in one veteran trader's words - "an utter shitshow of instant trends and trend-reversal...
1
unnamed (7)_671.png (700×467)
The percentage of assets (sum of equity, bond & money market assets) in money market funds is about ~17%. Goldman'...
3
unnamed (6)_735.png (581×299)
The gap between base rates and earnings yields has closed - no more TINA.
unnamed (2)_789.png (1280×655)
The 6mth T-Bill breaches 5% for 1st time since 2007.
1
unnamed (1)_802.png (1251×758)
When was last time you could earn 5% in a 1-Year Treasury Bill? July 23, 2007.
1
unnamed_893.png (1225×743)
The gap between SPX and the 10 year (inverted) stays very wide.
2023-02-14_06-44-49.jpg (805×647)
market reaction CPi.jpg (899×521)
Historical reactions to CPI
core CPI 2.jpg (1068×441)
Year over Year CPI
1
headline CPI chart.jpg (1071×444)
CPI and components
unnamed_888.png (667×413)
The GS "Risk Appetite Indicator" is breaking out to levels not seen in close to 2 years.
1
unnamed (7)_655.png (1280×865)
NASDAQ hasn't been this overbought since November 2021.
bonds_4.jpg (875×500)
1
3bbhbluxf2ea1.png (640×509)
A look at house payments vs income ratio. Housing market has never been this unaffordable (in history
1
2023-01-17_11-53-06.jpg (945×583)
"Most Shorted" stocks continued their huge squeeze higher, now up 20% from the post-payrolls dip...
vgwc86a5pgba1.png (1109×582)
Best of Cramer 2022
hv4zpf7qogba1.png (1279×657)
Worst of Cramer 2022
2
debt limit deadline_1.jpg (674×436)
2023-01-05_12-37-27.jpg (771×583)
Negative-yielding debt has gone from almost TWENTY TRILLION down to NOTHING!!!!
uxtthjvu3a9a1.jpg (640×606)
5
cm54rkx5708a1.jpg (640×423)
image (68)_0.png (1280×750)
The Nasdaq is on track for its worst December since 2002..
mr7hso3y8n6a1.jpg (640×661)
4
FkRh-upX0AAqw1j (1911×896)
2022-12-18_12-00-18.png (500×376)
olhvex313y4a1.jpg (500×675)
excfzg3iwh4a1.jpg (500×491)
88l2tfvqdn3a1.jpg (888×499)
household vs establishment dec 2022 delta.jpg (1280×754)
1
zcm00s7wlq2a1.jpg (960×625)
chart8.png (517×384)
2022-11-28_12-37-55.jpg (948×542)
2
HrEet1Q.png (1155×655)
fredgraph.png (700×866)
Asset Value of Household Real Estate, 1987-2022
3