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Tim Knight
: All Pages
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The headline factory orders rose just 0.4% MoM (half the 0.8% MoM expected) and worse still, the March data was re...
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Core factory orders (ex-transports) was even worse, dropping 0.2% MoM (+0.2% MoM exp) - the third straight monthly...
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US Debt Will Rise From $31 Trillion To $50 Trillion By 2030
2
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Put/Call ratio across all stocks dropped to its lowest since March 2022...
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And the put/call ratio across the entire market dropped to a critical level (led by call volume soaring) which in...
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May also saw a massive divergence between cap-weight and equal-weight portfolio performance as breadth narrowed dr...
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Debt-Ceiling drama is fading fast with USA CDS compressing..
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45% of corporates will be in the black out window by mid June.
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Nasdaq was this high relative to small caps was the peak of the dotcom bubble...
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The S&P 500 median stock forward P/E is 18.3x (in the top 15% of historical levels back to the mid-1990s;
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The equal-weighted S&P is unchanged YTD...
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It is unusual to have breadth this low.
1
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5 stocks = 23% of S&P 500
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The short sale ban in 2008
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Nasdaq breadth defined in this case by the advance/decline ratio, just hit a record low!
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USA Sovereign risk has never been this high...
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This represents PURE PROFIT for gift card sellers
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The U.S. dollar’s share of official global reserve currencies has gone from about 73 per cent in 2001 to around...
3
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Ha ha ha ha
2
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US Sovereign credit risk spread hovering right at record highs
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Sovereign credit risk of the USA soared to a record high this week...
1
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Weaker labor market allows Fed to cut aggressively
1
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Global house prices falling is recessionary
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Global EPS growth on course for -10-15% YoY in H2’23
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ISM < 45 = Recession
1
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46.3 means "manufacturing contraction on fu...
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Fed Chair Powell's favorite yield-curve-based recession-signal continues to plumb new depths of inversion...
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The AAII bull-bear spread has moved sharply higher.
1
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US unemployment is now worse than Russian unemployment...
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And tech is now trading almost as rich as it has ever traded to the overall market...
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P/E ratio back to pre-Covid HIGHS
1
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The gap between SPY and on balance volumes has widened even more...
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Bloomberg data reveals that IPOs have only managed to raise $2.4 billion in 2023, which is 43% lower than the amou...
1
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99% of borrowers have a mortgage rate lower than the current market rate
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Finally, for some context as to how massively the market has shifted its perception about The Fed's rate trajector...
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The pivot is gone and the terminal rate has soared and yet stocks refuse to face reality...
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Taylor Rule suggests rates should be at..........10.2%
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1
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Stocks continue to be bullishly decoupled from The Fed's bank reserves...
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Goldman notes investors' sentiment has turned much more bullish since the start of the year
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San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market Crashes, Prices Plunge 35%...
San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market Crashes, Prices Plunge 35%...
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US equity markets have been - in one veteran trader's words - "an utter shitshow of instant trends and trend-reversal...
1
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The percentage of assets (sum of equity, bond & money market assets) in money market funds is about ~17%. Goldman'...
3
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The gap between base rates and earnings yields has closed - no more TINA.
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The 6mth T-Bill breaches 5% for 1st time since 2007.
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When was last time you could earn 5% in a 1-Year Treasury Bill? July 23, 2007.
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The gap between SPX and the 10 year (inverted) stays very wide.
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Historical reactions to CPI
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Year over Year CPI
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CPI and components
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The GS "Risk Appetite Indicator" is breaking out to levels not seen in close to 2 years.
1
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NASDAQ hasn't been this overbought since November 2021.
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A look at house payments vs income ratio. Housing market has never been this unaffordable (in history
1
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"Most Shorted" stocks continued their huge squeeze higher, now up 20% from the post-payrolls dip...
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Best of Cramer 2022
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Worst of Cramer 2022
2
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Negative-yielding debt has gone from almost TWENTY TRILLION down to NOTHING!!!!
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5
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The Nasdaq is on track for its worst December since 2002..
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Asset Value of Household Real Estate, 1987-2022
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