With all the interest in interest rates I wanted to take a look myself at TLT. It looks to me like a fairly large triangle (labeled 3-4) was followed by a thrust to the top of the long term channel. This may well be the ultimate top in TLT. But the down action since 2012 looks more corrective than impulsive. But still this could be the first down wave of a major bear market. But it seems somewhat oversold so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bounce from here which could help the stock market for one more bounce as well. Notice the large potential large positive reversal in the RSI (RSI goes down more than the stock price suggesting strength in price relative to the indicator). Usually (but not always) this leads to a higher high in price so if there is a bounce from here it is possible to have one more high to retouch or mildly overshoot the upper channel line. OR as with all such “predictions” I could be completely wrong but it is still fun to try to anticipate. Have a great weekend. Any feedback is always appreciated. Tom B 7/5/13
I have the 5 10 and 30 year all holding short since 5-27. Showing the weekly charts of the 10 and 30 year triggering short this week. Monthly still above support... 7/5/13
Thanks urszulat. I love crows. My son is an artist and he painted this for me. "It is auspicious to be in the presence of a crow". Crows are courageous (they will take on an eagle), they can soar, but are very practical survivors. To me traders are very similar but like crows get very few kudos from the populace. You could consider us "slopers" a murder of crows. Thanks for your interest. Tom 7/5/13
Tomb
