View: Nomhard_data.png

Stress has not yet left the building II.  
Chart shows Nomura's hard data against soft data in the US. This essentially shows us when sentiment surveys are doing well but 'actual' real numbers aren't. As you can see on the chart, sentiment at the moment is good, hard numbers not so much. This week we have an amazing array of numbers in the US with 33 data points , culminating in the NFP.  
When we get bad soft data and good hard data the equity market can rally strongly. The weak soft data gives room for getting pleasant surprises and with stronger hard data respondents will upgrade their soft data projections. The reverse is apparent as well. As we expected good things, we have been constantly disappointed. Sooner or later the hard data will hopefully match the soft data but the imbalance of expectation against reality is what trading is all about. The internet has created a thriving community of group think , providing mood swings with alacrity. One wonders how much poor hard data the market will abso