View: GOLD_COT.jpg


This is free chart from 
It represent COT data for GOLD. 
IF gold is in bull trend then horizontal green line represent time to buy, dark-red line represent time to sell. If gold still in bear trend, green line is not appropriate to buy, it's more likely time to sell :)


Do you have this chart going back to the beginning of the gold bull in ~2003? IMO, the behavior at the beginning of the bull run would be more comparable to today. 
Here's the charts that I have. The bottoms of the blue line on my charts correspond to the red line peaks/vertical red lines on your chart. In the bull market, it looks like selling on those triggers got you out WAY early, at best. I don't see a useful correlation during a bull market, but my chart is a much bigger picture, less detailed one. 
Chart explanation: 
Here's the COT charts during a bull market (left) and a bear market (right). This is for silver, but the gold chart is essentially the same. The blue line is the commercial net position, which offsets the managed money position. During a bear market, when the commercials are extremely short (managed money extremely long), a top was imminent, and vise versa for bottoms.  
Looking at the bull market chart, there is no significant correlation.
Retrieved from
I have COT data from 2007, but I can't share it. What I want to say is just buying at green line is less dangerous (no one can tell exactly that gold is in bull trend now). Selling at red line is not necessary (if one believe that we have bull trend). COT data help to choose appropriate time to buy. I can't tell that COT is useless. 7/3/16