$SPX cracked the trend line today off the February low. I think it's reasonable to forecast a possible decline toward the 1950 area by the election, if not by the end of October.
Not if the market is staying rangebound. When markets switch from trending to rangebound, trendlines like that get violated every month. Maybe not, but something to think about.
Currently the chance of such scenario is traded just for 2 points.