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With such a volatile start of the year across FX space there seem to be new challenges facing traders at least for the short term future. After unprecented volatility seen around CHF, shorter term positions in this currency become unfavorable due to huge markup spread that majority of brokers imply for CHF pairs. Unless traders can stomach significant stops in their CHF positions it is good idea to stay away from trading CHF short-term. Another huge story on the horizon is ECB finally announced QE program that will kick in in March with total size of 1.1TR EUR. This sent EUR pairs much lower and this is likely not to be the end of the fall due to the fact that anti-EU Syriza party is likely to win parliament elections in Greece. Having parity for EUR/USD pair at some point in 2016 seem to be reasonable projection. FOMC meeting on Wednesday anticipation is muted at the moment, however surprises are not unlikely having in mind events of recent weeks.Looking at currency board below majority of pairs pointing to technical weakness of GBP for the coming week, for the traders taking this approach good idea take it as binary event and adjust their risk positions on GBP accordingly.

Weekly Currency Board












No Positions






Not tradable due to spread













Prime Risk Events (UTC time)
Sunday25 January Greek elections: The Greeks will vote in a general election on Sunday, with the anti-austerity Syriza party around six points ahead in the polls. They are expected to form a government, but the exact majority is yet to be decided. The first exit polls are expected to emerge around 5pm (London time), followed by early projections at 7pm and then final expectations of the result around 9pm. Market to watch: major eurozone indices   EUR/USD   EUR/GBP Monday26 January German Ifo business climate (January), 9am: Expectations are for an increase to 106.2, up from 105.5 month on month. Market to watch: DAX   EUR/USD   EUR/GBP Tuesday ​27 January Australia NAB business confidence (January), 12:30am: Expectations are for a pick up to 4.12 from its previous level, 1. Market to watch: ASX   AUD/USD and mining stocks

UK preliminary GDP QoQ (Q4), 9:30am: Expectations are for a slowdown to 0.60% from 0.70%. Also released are the year-on-year figures which are expected to show an increase to 2.9% from 0.70%.  Market to watch: FTSE 100 and   GBP/USD

US core durable goods orders MoM (December), 1:30pm: Expectations are for a rebound to 0.6% from -0.70% previously. Non-core durable goods are expected to show a pick up to 0.50% from -0.90% also. Market to watch: S&P500   Dow Jones   GBP/USD   EUR/USD and   USD/JPY

US CB consumer confidence (December), 3pm: Market expectations are for a pick up to 95 from its previous level of 92.6 month on month. Market to watch: S&P500   Dow Jones   GBP/USD   EUR/USD and   USD/JPY

Wednesday ​28 January Australian CPI QoQ (Q4), 12:30am: Forecast to post a slowdown to 0.30% from 0.50%. Market to watch: ASX   AUD/USD and   AUD/JPY

Germany GfK German consumer climate (December), German retail sales MoM (December), 7am: Expected to show a mild pick-up to 9.1 from its previous level of 9.1 month on month. Retail sales are expected to show a rise of 0.71% down from its previous level of 1.0% Market to watch: DAX   EUR/USD   EUR/GBP

US FOMC statement/federal funds rate (January), 7pm: Expectations are for the funds rate to be left unchanged at 0.25%. Market to watch: S&P500   Dow Jones   GBP/USD   EUR/USD and   USD/JPY

New Zealand RBNZ rate statement/interest rate announcement (January), 8pm: Expectations are for interest rates to be left unchanged at 3.50%; however, markets will be awaiting some directional bias regarding a possible cut in rates owing to slowing commodity prices. Market to watch: NZD/USD and   NZD/JPY

Thursday​29 January German unemployment rate (December), 8:55am: Expectations are for an unchanged level of 6.50%. Market to watch: DAX   EUR/USD   EUR/GBP

US initial jobless claims (January), 1:30pm: Expectations are for an additional 294k, down from its previous; 307k. Market to watch: S&P500   Dow Jones   GBP/USD   EUR/USD and   USD/JPY

Japanese Tokyo core CPI YoY (December), 11:30pm: Expectations are for a slowdown to 2.20% from its previous level of 2.30%. Market to watch: Nikkei 225 and USD/JPY

Japanese retail sales YoY (December), 11:50pm: Expectations are for a move higher to 0.9% from 0.4%. Market to watch: Nikkei 225 and USD/JPY

Friday 30 January UK mortgage approvals (December), 10am: Expectations are for a flat reading of 59.0k. Market to watch: FTSE 100 and   GBP/USD

EU CPI flash estimate YoY unemployment (December), 10am: Expectations are for -0.5%, down from its previous level of -0.20%.The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 11:50%. Market to watch: Major EU indices   EUR/USD   EUR/GBP

US advance GDP QoQ (Q4), 1:30pm: Expectations are for a slowdown to 3.2% from its previous level of 5.0%.

Chicago PMI (December), 2:45pm: Expectations are for a mild slowdown to 58 from 58.3 month on month. Market to watch: S&P500   Dow Jones   GBP/USD   EUR/USD and   USD/JPY


This setup is purely technical play on EUR bounce. Will be aproaching this setup with increased caution, as current fundamentals are extremely bearish on EUR, it is good idea to look for signs of reversal on lower time frames before entering this long position.



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