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got a bunch of SPXw 2600 Puts expiring today. They're already 50%
winners waiting to buy them back or let expire
Market timing should come relatively soon, I'm expecting a big down move for this year. If I'm right, realized vol should stay high
At 125% percent of GDP, the S&P 500®’s market cap is closing in on its post-WW II high of 138% of GDP set in 2000 and is well above peak levels from the 1960s (Figure 11). In the past when its market cap hit such lofty levels relative to GDP, returns going forward were not good. After hitting nearly 110% of GDP during the early-to-mid 1960s, stock prices stagnated, in nominal terms, for a decade and a half.