View: Blanks of the trader
Blanks of the trader
There is no week like the other, when looking at the price action behavior. Mine had two major setups completing at anticipated areas. Despite being "right" on overall direction of price movement, i got stopped out on both of them. This time market went very deep to test the stops. BAT pattern on EUR/USD had false breakout above 1.32's before rolling over to the south, the spike up went as high as 1.3250's, taking out many traders anticipating this move. This is one of the cases when despite doing everything right you get the loser. In retrospective many could say that stops were too tight etc. Personally i could not afford these kind of wide stops as it would compromise R multiple ratio on this setup. Very similiar outcome on bullish USD/JPY BAT pattern. Also had to cut loses on 2618 pattern that completed last week as well on CAC40, thankfully hedge trade made up fully for initial loser. Recent volatile price action on Gold (XAUUSD) formed wider than normal ranges that do not match my risk profile, therefore will be parking this market from my watch list for some time. Instead S&P500 finally came into range where it could be traded based on given risk parameters that i use at the moment. It is pretty much 1 for 1 replacement, and S&P 500 is highly correlated to CAC40 French index the factor that has to be considered every time new setup will arise on either of these markets.
Next week will be looking mostly at EUR/USD pair, as it has a lot to offer in terms of swing trading. Before that, it is worth to mention that bearish Shark pattern posted last week on CAC40 market got completed on Friday, it is slightly in the money already before next week open which is always good start.
Coming back to EUR/USD everything seem to be setting up for bullish continuation if looking at 50 and 200 MA's. I have two setups under my radar on this market. First is likely to be counter trend AB=CD pattern completing at 1.3318's. Looking left there is some minor structure reference as well as fibonacci confluence. Second setup is a bullish Gartleys, which is not ideal textbook pattern as D leg is completing very close to initial X leg. From risk/reward perspective that is actually advantage because having ideal Gartleys completing at 0.786 fib retracement requires to have much more risk capital taken on board. This is bullish setup that, if completed, will be likely in the context of sideways action. Area at 1.2960 will be good one to get involved, see the chart below.
Have a good one traders!
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