Other Markets Update

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This is my vacation post for other (non-equities) markets. For equities check my last post from earlier today. Normal service resumes next Monday 4th August.

Last time I was looking at EURUSD I said that I was expecting a test of rising wedge support in the 1.35 area. EURUSD made that and then slightly lower to test the 200 DMA, so the rising wedge is now broken. Unless we see a fairly fast recovery to new highs I’m now looking at targets for EURUSD in the mid-120s. I’ve been watching this setup for months in the expectation that there should be a strong USD rally at the end of QE3 so I’m expecting this to resolve down. EURUSD weekly chart:

140728 EURUSD Weekly Rising Wedge and Triangle

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Candidate Top Take #24

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Greetings from the New Forest (established 1079 AD) in Hampshire, UK. The scenery and weather are lovely, and my internet connection is very slow, so I have been taking some genuine time off to relax rather than following the markets too closely. Things are looking interesting though so I thought I’d take some time today to do two posts, one on equities and the other later on on bonds, precious metals etc.

On equities SPX made a marginal new high last week and has pulled back sharply from that setting up a possible short term double-top. This isn’t the first time this has happened in recent months, so there isn’t much to get excited about as yet, but the overall setup favors at least some more downside this week, so I thought I’d have a look at that today. On the daily chart SPX tested the lower band on Friday and has gone lower this morning. There is double support in the 1956 area at the intersection of the lower band and broken wedge resistance, and primary support is at double-top support at 1952. A conviction break below double-top support would target the 1914 area. SPX daily chart:

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