Pavlov and the Three Little Bears

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SPX made a new high yesterday and closed at 2011.36, only 0.13 over the daily upper band which closed the day at 2011.23. The bears had plenty of time to knock the market down after a new all time high was made in the morning, and failed to do so. The odds that we are starting an upper band ride on SPX improved sharply yesterday.

It’s a struggle to remain objective at a time like this because the last couple of years have conditioned us all to dismiss any bear case at the first sign of trouble, and I’m struggling not to just do that here. The odds of a bullish resolution here are definitely improving, but that’s not a done deal yet, and the stats from my SPX daily RSI5 / NYMO sell signal particularly are warning that we could still see a bearish resolution here, though if we are to see that we would need to see some significant weakness today or at latest on Monday. (more…)

Slope on the Silver Screen

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I’m a movie buff, a Woody Allen fan, and a lover of analogs, so it’s remarkable it took me this long to make the connection between Slope of Hope and the clip below. There’s no need to over-explain it, but think of me in the role of Woody Allen, Iggy as the part of the conductor, and you can fill in the rest of the Sloper names with the other passengers on the train. As for the party train on which I gaze forlornly – – – maybe that’s the CNBC car.