Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight

ES and EURUSD Break Support (by Springheel Jack)

I was looking for confirmation that a major decline might be starting yesterday and I got it when ES broke the rising channel. Looking at SPX the channel was broken even more convincingly and just to underline the point the 13/34 daily EMAs recrossed bearishly, backing up the 13/34 weekly EMAs which recrossed bearishly last week:

EURUSD didn't break the broadening ascending wedge yesterday but has dropped well below it overnight, and has also dropped through the neckline of the big H&S pattern indicating to 1.214. Short of a really major recovery today I'm regarding the EURUSD wedge as broken, and that is confirmation once we see the close today that we are likely to see new 2010 lows on both ES and EURUSD:

Where we are on EURUSD is of enormous importance in my view as it is the key inverse proxy for USD. I've posted before on the complex relationship for the positive correlation between EURUSD and ES/SPX, and that the moves down on ES move furthest and fastest when both ES and EURUSD are both in powerful waves down, as they were between the SPX top in April and the early June, during which time ES fell just over 180 points on a peak to trough basis. I think it is now likely that we are in another such period now.

I have put a tentative EW labelling on the EURUSD moves down from the top so far. On my primary count wave 1 completed at the June low, and the recent high was the top of wave 2, putting us in wave (iii) of 3 now. On my alternate count we just completed wave (iv), which retraced almost exactly 50% of wave (iii), and have just started wave (v) of 1. EW pedants should forgive my not using the standard labelling, but I think the meaning is clear enough, and either way new 2010 lows from here now look likely:

Looking at the SPX daily chart I have also found a simply beautiful declining channel from the April high to support this overall picture. Looking at it now it is a perfect technical declining channel from the top, and should define the target for the current swing down, subject of course to the time taken to complete it:

On the basis of that channel and the current situation on EURUSD, and assuming that we don't see a major reversal on EURUSD taking it back into the broadening ascending wedge by the close today, I am therefore seeing the next major swing low in the 940 SPX area in mid-September. We shall see if I'm right over the next three weeks. :-)

In the shorter term I also have a smaller declining channel on ES for the current move, and also a largish potential H&S pattern indicating to the 975 area. These give us the two most likely bounce levels for the immediate move down, and they are the 1050 ES area to finish the head on the potential H&S pattern, and the powerful support level at 1037 ES, which would be the declining channel target and also the neckline for the big H&S pattern on ES / SPX that indicates to the 870 area. I'm favoring the lower target:

So there we are. I have put my bear suit back on and am once again targeting 870 SPX as the most likely main target for this move down, as it is the target for the big SPX H&S, the broadening formation, and also the bearish gartley pattern that I posted yesterday, as well as being the key support / resistance level for the October 2008 to July 2009 period. I am hoping that we will get a second Hindenburg omen in the next few days just to add the final touch to the overall technical picture here, which in my view hasn't looked as bearish since August 2008.

EURUSD Breaks Support (by Springheel Jack)

EURUSD finally broke support on the rising wedge overnight, and not before time. I am expecting to see a good sized retracement now. My target is in the 1.28 area, though technically of course, the target is 1.22. I've mentioned before that rising wedges often evolve into channels or broadening wedges, and I'm expecting this one to evolve into a broadening ascending wedge, and have drawn in the rising support line on the chart:

GBPUSD, which has resolved into a clear broadening ascending wedge now, is retracing back towards the 1.55 area. I'm somewhat doubtful about this pattern breaking down and support there may well hold:

AUDUSD broke the rising wedge on the daily that I posted the other day. Nice catch braddurden for pointing it out. I'm seeing some support at 0.90 but I think it's more likely we see a fall to the main rising support trendline in the 0.87 area:

Oil completed the bearish gartley pattern I posted, though it was Keirsten who first pointed it out of course, and reached the top trendline of the rising channel. I'm seeing some support in the 79 area, but am expecting a fall to rising support in the 75.50 area:

Dr Copper has broken support overnight and looks likely to return to rising support in the 310 area, and to the extent that copper is a lead indicator for equities, it is currently pointing firmly down:

So far, so bearish, but where does that leave equities? Well, that's all about the rising wedges. In the short term the second of two rising wedges on the ES 60min broke downwards last night. The first wedge broke down last Friday and played out to target at 1104 ES. The second wedge has the same target and with a bit of help from EURUSD, should have no trouble making it there:

If ES can make it back to 1104, then the main rising wedge on ES will be broken, and that is very much the main prize here of course. Technically the rising wedge target indicates back to the July ES low, but more likely in my view we will retrace either to the 1070 or 1084.5 area, or to the 1040 ES area to make the RS on a big IHS that should be obvious on the chart below. I have listed the full range of targets on the daily chart and I am hoping that channels or patterns formed during the descent will make it easier to call this on the way down:

For a number of technical reasons, as I've explained in previous posts, I'm expecting this to be merely a retracement in a larger bullish picture. In EW terms I think we have just finished wave 1 up of a new move up on equities from the July low, and we will have to retrace a long way before I start to reconsider that seriously. That's not because I think the recovery is real or that current economic policies are putting us on the road to sustainable prosperity, but while the rotten fundamentals will bring down this market sooner or later, I'm doubtful about that happening in 2010.

For a good picture of the current EW picture from the bull side, my friend Pug posted a publicly viewable summary last night that I think is well worth a read, and the scenario I have outlined today fits very well with his alternate scenario.

More Elliott Wave Thoughts (by Nathaniel Goodwin)

Living alone the past week and a half has taught me that I am not much of a bachelor. I’ve
been told that I’m not the best person to be alone with, which is probably why I like having a roommate - mom, grandma or the colonel... whoever, I don’t like being alone by myself.

To curb my loneliness, I asked local street dweller Stun Gun Jones to move in for a bit. He agreed to stay until the Colonel gets back on the condition that I don’t cramp his lifestyle by making him use the bathroom and shower.

Last night I was showing him some charts with long term Elliott Wave counts, and he started that drunken laugh/cackling people hear from him all day on the street. He stated that the following EW count was just as possible as the count with EWI's P3 panning out, and warned me not to place big bets on very speculative EWT outlooks or be too firm with my beliefs on how things will play out long term.

 
After hacking up some phlegm and Irish Rose, Stun Gun said that there are a few safer ways to use EWT, one way is to only try to catch 3rd waves. A third wave is the most powerful or “glorious” of all waves, and a third wave can be a 3 or C - both are third waves. Wait for an impulsive first wave to appear, it could be a 1 or an (A), wait for 2 or (B) to appear.  Enter the trade anywhere from 38-61% retracement of the first wave, set stops right below the first wave. Exit can be tricky, look for divergences or whatever to exit the 3rd wave (which is either a 3 or a C, who cares!)

 
I have to go empty Stun Gun’s pee-jar, another prerequisite of him moving in. One other thing he told me though was that lots of folks are looking for Aug 5th-6th as an important cycle or turn date, we are also very close to the 50% retracement area from the April 26th high to July 1st low. Seems like a good place for a bearish turnaround. His advice helped me out in early July, so I’ll be taking a close look the next couple of days.

Mole To The Rescue

Alright, I have seen enough. It's time for someone to step and set the things straight over here at the Slope. Although I can't blame Tim-ay for relenting to bearish exhaustion it's important that we fade emotions and look at all evidence at hand before we get married to the long side. Quite frankly, I almost feel pity for the bulltards - for they have no idea what they're dealing with.

I said 'almost'...

 

This chart is something my stainless steel rats are more familiar with. I'll try to explain it this way: What you are seeing is the difference between the 'average' (think moving average) and the 'median'. 

What I have labeled on this chart are instances of when the SPX was in the 1120 – 1130 trading range. Which was a lot more often than I care to recall – we seem to be trapped in this range and I am starting to feel like Bill Murray. Anyway, the yellow marks are periods we spent in this range and the green marks connect to the moving average of the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA during that time. So, back in December (yes, half a year ago – the horror!!) we were at roughly 75%. Three months later at number 2 we were at around 65%. In May at number 3 we are at roughly 60%. And now/today we are at - gulp! - 46%.

What does that mean? Do we care? Yes we do. What it means is that there is a distinct and rapid steepening of the lead curve. And by that I mean that there is a greater polarity between the number of stocks in the SPX which are pushing up sharply and the ones which are flat or dropping. That’s the difference between the average and the median.

Jeezzz Mole – what does that mean again?

The average (or mean) is the sum of the values of all the observations, divided by the number of observations. It is the average value. The median is the value at which 50% of the observations lie above, and 50% lie below. Alright, now your head is spinning – let me fix that. Here is an example:

Here is a series of numbers: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5000, 9000, 8700. The median is the one in the middle: 4. To get to the average add them all up and divide by 7 – which is 3244.

Aaaah – I’m sure a light bulb just went on in your head ;-)

You can assume that the median for stocks is usually lower than the average close to market tops. In other words again (and now we finally get somewhere), the price on the SPX represents the average, as it is a free-float capitalization-weighted index (please don’t ask me what that means), and the median (sort of – it’s based on the 200-day SMA) is the SPXA200R (which I put an SMA on, just to confuse you further).

Moral of the story: On the median side we can see that an increasing amount of stocks are dropping below the 200-day SMA, despite price claiming that the ‘value’ of the SPX is the same.

And that, boys and girls, is the definition of 'distribution'.

 

Here is a similar view, this time with a slightly higher 84-day SMA - we want to fade the noise. What I'm seeing is the exact same pattern we saw during the fall 2007 topping process. This actually confirms Karl Denninger's theory that we are going through a similar price fractal right now - maybe someone here can post the link, I can't find it.

 

Thus my outlook for the rest of the year is pretty clear. We are currently in a zigzag flat correction which may take us close to this year's high of 1219.80 on the SPX - and maybe we will even exceed it but that is by no means guaranteed. I also do not think that the Dow will exceed its high mark of 11,258.01. We may count a new high as an irregular top or we may slap another wave label on it to satisfy our never ending desire to make sense of this woodchipper of a market. Whatever floats your boat - but don't lose sight of the overall picture.

For the market internals are very clear - I have tons of charts in my repertoire (and which I present on a regular basis at my evil den of financial doom) which strongly suggest that this is nothing but a second wave correction in equities. After all - they are known to be brutal and leave most bears on the wayside. 

Remember - the bus always moves fastest when it's empty. 

Medium Term

 

Here are my short term musings on my SPX wave chart. That little overlap last week caused me to pull a very rare 'ending diagonal' card, but since it only happened on the SPX I may just choose to ignore it. The third option is to project new highs for the year - as this would mean that we are in a sub-dividing 3rd wave. And as Tim-ay pointed out - it may drive us a lot higher than any self respecting bear would care to imagine. 

 

My gold/silver ratio chart is already bouncing exactly where I suggested it would. Bear in mind that this supporting indicator can dance along that lower line for a while until equities finally relent and drop to the downside.

 

Copper is still pointing to the upside and it's been spot on all year. Which means that we're not turning just yet - give it until mid August, which in my estimate will be the curtain call for Soylent Green (i.e. the green scenario on my SPX wave count chart).

Whatever you do - stay frosty and don't yield to emotion! 

Cheers,

Mole

MortiES' EOD Analysis: Up or Down?! (by Mortie)

This is the analysis that my premium subscribers received this evening.  I post at the Value of Perfect Infomation.

 

ES likes to take us for wild rides. Yesterday was a strong, outside reversal green candle. Trading wisdom would have it that there should be followthrough the next day. But ES doesn’t care about trading wisdom. Instead, the Bears came to the party and protected the 78.6% retracement level that we talked about in a previous post. As the first chart will show, we are not done with the W4 count yet, but it’s close. We have a line-in-the-sand that is nearby. Let’s see if the Bulls can defend.

Just so we can be Fair & Balanced, let’s look at what the Bear count is that they are excited about. We could title this chart 1, 2, 1, 2 …  This count anticipates a major crash in the market ~ and soon! If it happens, I plan to go along for the ride, but I’m not going to book my seat on this train quite yet.

We don't provide a day trading system. I am a probability trader that has modified a system that gives you an opportunity to learn to fish. The value we provide is in understanding setups and managing risks. However, there are times when I will give you a fish and other traders here will do the same. Also, please remember that this is about probabilities, not certainties. My goal would be an "Elliott Wave for Dummies" curriculum. I love all the "for Dummies" books because they strive to simplify and clarify. They are profoundly simple. The mark of a good teacher IMO is someone who can get the hay down from the loft so the horses can eat it. Many teachers like to complicate their subject matter so they can appear "smart". I have no use for insecurity in teachers. The old saying that "it's better to teach someone to fish than give them a fish" is never more true than in teaching.

Weekend Analysis ~ Summer Rally or Summer Slump?! (by Mortie)

This is the weekend analysis that my premium subscribers received. I post over at the Value of Perfect Information. That is the question! I can make a case for either scenario, but the most recent data that ES has been giving us is Bearish. Not because the market is going down, but because the structure of the market is Bearish. The charts below make the case for neither scenario, but rather presents both as possibilities and indicated important levels to my analysis. As the market unfolds, more information will be welcome and useful in projecting the intermediate-term path of ES. The first chart is the Weekly Big Picture. It’s primary use is to give us an overarching view of the market so we don’t get lost among the trees. The second chart is more relevant to our trading on Monday. Sometimes I learn more when my projection is not followed by the market. It tells me to reconsider my opinions.

The Weekly chart below shows general paths that are possible for ES. Because I am short term Bullish for Monday's trading, I favor the short red arrow up for Monday. The next chart shows the possibilities for the short-term.

The next chart is more relevant to our trading on Monday.. Be sure and review recent posts, since many are still relevant. I still have, in the back of my head, the 1150 level as a destination which would make a nice right shoulder on the Daily chart. That would be at approximately the 62% retracement level, and ES has already hit the 50% retracement level and reversed. Right now, it looks on the Daily chart like ES wants to make a right shoulder, but had this shoulder beaten with a 2 X 4. As I mention on the chart, the 1150 level would make for some interesting possibilities ~ Bearish and Bullish. The most notable Bearish indicator is the structure of the rally from the correction low of 1038.50 which looks corrective (overlapping waves). This could be an ABC or an ABCDE. But that doesn’t rule out the possibility that it is simply ES forming a base from which to rally.

 

We don’t provide a day trading system. I am a probability trader that has modified a system that gives you an opportunity to learn to fish. The value we provide is in understanding setups and managing risks. However, there are times when I will give you a fish and other traders here will do the same. Also, please remember that this is about probabilities, not certainties.

My goal would be an “Elliott Wave for Dummies” curriculum. I love all the “for Dummies” books because they strive to simplify and clarify. They are profoundly simple. The mark of a good teacher IMO is someone who can get the hay down from the loft so the horses can eat it. Many teachers like to complicate their subject matter so they can appear “smart”. I have no use for insecurity in teachers. The old saying that “it’s better to teach someone to fish than give them a fish” is never more true than in teaching.

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■ ╠╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╣ New Post @ 11:00 a.m(EDT)  ╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╣ ■

I had mentioned last night that the folks at Elliott Wave International had projected a drop into the tinted zone that I had drawn (shown below) before a partial push up and then - - - the big, fun plunge.

The tinted area has indeed been penetrated, satisfying the prediction. I had some nice gains going long IYR and IWM in day trades earlier today, and I'm pretty much totally short again. Looks like another fun day.

All we hear on the street is :

• Raise Cash
• Sell your poorest performers
• Load up on Inverse ETF’s
• Tighten stops on performing issues

Keep in mind this is all being now said AFTER we’ve already fallen! This is exactly what you’d expect to hear AFTER we’ve already fallen. This is always the way it works. Welcome to the world of opposites. Human nature is to react usually AFTER the fact.

But not us — we trade our plan and plan our trades.

We’ve said it before on the long side and that was “buy the dips and sell the rips.” Only now it’s flipped over — “short the rallies and cover the dips.”

We also think given all the hoopla on the street that now would be a good time to talk about CHANGE IN TREND PATTERNS

In the stock market there are only three things you need to know

• Uptrends and how to trade them
• Downtrends and how to trade them
• Change in trends and how to identify them

Much like we saw in April where many of the go go stocks were putting in double tops we could now be very close to putting in a double bottom on the S&P 500, the Dow Industrials, The OTC Comp and Even the Russell 2000 index.  They all show the same pattern as shown here:

For more information from Robert Prechter, download a FREE 10-page issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist. It challenges current recovery hype with hard facts, independent analysis, and insightful charts. You'll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future. Hurry! This free offer expires June 7.

I got the reversal confirmation that I was looking for yesterday, albeit not by much. We broke the declining channel I posted yesterday, cleared the neckline of the IHS comfortably enough, though getting much past it was a slow and painful business. The Vix closed under my channel trendlines on the 60 min chart, just a little bit but enough, and the RSI on the SPX daily chart broke up from the declining resistance trendline of recent weeks. For my money, we're there, and the interim low is in.

Even EURUSD has risen from the deathbed it has been occupying in recent weeks and is showing some signs of life. I have a retracement target if reached within two weeks of slightly over 1.30 for EURUSD, and of slightly over 1.50 for GBPUSD over the same period. 

My $SPX:$VIX indicator on the 60 min chart, one of my favorites as it tends to trend and pattern well, broke up from the recent broadening descending wedge, retested the broken trendline and broke upwards again. Normally this wedge would indicate a return back to the highs and lows of SPX and Vix respectively, but I don't tend to regard such targets as firm for this sort of derived indicator:

Now some of the more bullish EW analysts have regarded this fall from the high as an ABC correction and are regarding wave C as completed. If so, we can expect that we would make a new high within the right angled and ascending broadening formation on SPX in the 1250 area.

Possible, but unlikely I think. If they are right though, we'll find out when EURUSD and GBPUSD reach their retracement targets and then break upwards from their respective declining wedges. In the event that happens, this will be worth another look.

In the interim however, I'm sticking with my primary EW count, which is that we have just finished wave 1 down, and have now started wave 2. That is important, as wave 2 retracements are often very deep, and can retrace almost all of the preceding wave down in some cases, as we saw with the first two waves after EURUSD peaked a few months ago. I don't think that's likely, but it could happen, and I'll be looking for some indicator and forex confirmations before I short the top of this too heavily.

On the SPX 15min chart the IHS still looks pretty good, which is reassuring as the right shoulder was beginning to look a bit of a mess on ES yesterday afternoon. I'm expecting that the neckline at 1090 SPX should be a firm floor for SPX in the next few days, and that any drops below it will weaken or even invalidate the IHS, which has a target of 1140 SPX. I have marked in a rising support trendline on the chart, and a very tentative rising channel line above as a possible immediate target area. That only has one touch so far though, and until we see the next short term reversal it is only an educated guess:

I've marked in possible fib retracement targets on the SPX 60min chart. The main ones are the 50% retracement at 1130.29, which seems low for me, and my preferred target of 1151.41 at the 61.8% fib. That would be a typical wave 2 retracement, and I have two important trendlines that will be near that level within two weeks. I have also marked in a declining channel trendline from the top in early May that looks compelling, and that I am seeing as the first serious resistance in the 1120 - 1125 area:

On the SPX daily chart I am seeing two key broken trendlines that look interesting as potential resistance and they are the broken lower trendline of the main SPX rising wedge, which will be in the 1150 area within two weeks, and the broken lower trendline of the main SPX rising channel from the March 2009 low, which will be in the 1170 area within two weeks.

The main declining trendline from the SPX high will intersect the broken rising wedge trendline in the 1150 area in two weeks as well, and that too is likely to prove significant resistance and is another reason why I like 1150 as the retracement target from the low this week:

In terms of timeframe no doubt you'll have noticed that I'm using a working timeframe of two more weeks for this retracement, specifically with a speculative working target of Friday 11th June. That is a workable contender for a turn date, and I don't think that the USD currency pairs leave room for a much longer retracement period unless they break up from their declining wedges. In practical terms I am assuming that we have at least another week of retracement and perhaps as many as three.

EWI Target Met

I had mentioned last night that the folks at Elliott Wave International had projected a drop into the tinted zone that I had drawn (shown below) before a partial push up and then - - - the big, fun plunge.

The tinted area has indeed been penetrated, satisfying the prediction. I had some nice gains going long IYR and IWM in day trades earlier today, and I'm pretty much totally short again. Looks like another fun day.

The Stock Market Is A World Of Opposites (by AllAboutTrends)

All we hear on the street is :

• Raise Cash
• Sell your poorest performers
• Load up on Inverse ETF’s
• Tighten stops on performing issues

Keep in mind this is all being now said AFTER we’ve already fallen! This is exactly what you’d expect to hear AFTER we’ve already fallen. This is always the way it works. Welcome to the world of opposites. Human nature is to react usually AFTER the fact.

But not us — we trade our plan and plan our trades.

We’ve said it before on the long side and that was “buy the dips and sell the rips.” Only now it’s flipped over — “short the rallies and cover the dips.”

We also think given all the hoopla on the street that now would be a good time to talk about CHANGE IN TREND PATTERNS

In the stock market there are only three things you need to know

• Uptrends and how to trade them
• Downtrends and how to trade them
• Change in trends and how to identify them

Much like we saw in April where many of the go go stocks were putting in double tops we could now be very close to putting in a double bottom on the S&P 500, the Dow Industrials, The OTC Comp and Even the Russell 2000 index.  They all show the same pattern as shown here:

Prechter Video on The Doomed Euro

For more information from Robert Prechter, download a FREE 10-page issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist. It challenges current recovery hype with hard facts, independent analysis, and insightful charts. You'll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future. Hurry! This free offer expires June 7.

SPX Retracement Targets (by Springheel Jack)

I got the reversal confirmation that I was looking for yesterday, albeit not by much. We broke the declining channel I posted yesterday, cleared the neckline of the IHS comfortably enough, though getting much past it was a slow and painful business. The Vix closed under my channel trendlines on the 60 min chart, just a little bit but enough, and the RSI on the SPX daily chart broke up from the declining resistance trendline of recent weeks. For my money, we're there, and the interim low is in.

Even EURUSD has risen from the deathbed it has been occupying in recent weeks and is showing some signs of life. I have a retracement target if reached within two weeks of slightly over 1.30 for EURUSD, and of slightly over 1.50 for GBPUSD over the same period. 

My $SPX:$VIX indicator on the 60 min chart, one of my favorites as it tends to trend and pattern well, broke up from the recent broadening descending wedge, retested the broken trendline and broke upwards again. Normally this wedge would indicate a return back to the highs and lows of SPX and Vix respectively, but I don't tend to regard such targets as firm for this sort of derived indicator:

Now some of the more bullish EW analysts have regarded this fall from the high as an ABC correction and are regarding wave C as completed. If so, we can expect that we would make a new high within the right angled and ascending broadening formation on SPX in the 1250 area.

Possible, but unlikely I think. If they are right though, we'll find out when EURUSD and GBPUSD reach their retracement targets and then break upwards from their respective declining wedges. In the event that happens, this will be worth another look.

In the interim however, I'm sticking with my primary EW count, which is that we have just finished wave 1 down, and have now started wave 2. That is important, as wave 2 retracements are often very deep, and can retrace almost all of the preceding wave down in some cases, as we saw with the first two waves after EURUSD peaked a few months ago. I don't think that's likely, but it could happen, and I'll be looking for some indicator and forex confirmations before I short the top of this too heavily.

On the SPX 15min chart the IHS still looks pretty good, which is reassuring as the right shoulder was beginning to look a bit of a mess on ES yesterday afternoon. I'm expecting that the neckline at 1090 SPX should be a firm floor for SPX in the next few days, and that any drops below it will weaken or even invalidate the IHS, which has a target of 1140 SPX. I have marked in a rising support trendline on the chart, and a very tentative rising channel line above as a possible immediate target area. That only has one touch so far though, and until we see the next short term reversal it is only an educated guess:

I've marked in possible fib retracement targets on the SPX 60min chart. The main ones are the 50% retracement at 1130.29, which seems low for me, and my preferred target of 1151.41 at the 61.8% fib. That would be a typical wave 2 retracement, and I have two important trendlines that will be near that level within two weeks. I have also marked in a declining channel trendline from the top in early May that looks compelling, and that I am seeing as the first serious resistance in the 1120 - 1125 area:

On the SPX daily chart I am seeing two key broken trendlines that look interesting as potential resistance and they are the broken lower trendline of the main SPX rising wedge, which will be in the 1150 area within two weeks, and the broken lower trendline of the main SPX rising channel from the March 2009 low, which will be in the 1170 area within two weeks.

The main declining trendline from the SPX high will intersect the broken rising wedge trendline in the 1150 area in two weeks as well, and that too is likely to prove significant resistance and is another reason why I like 1150 as the retracement target from the low this week:

In terms of timeframe no doubt you'll have noticed that I'm using a working timeframe of two more weeks for this retracement, specifically with a speculative working target of Friday 11th June. That is a workable contender for a turn date, and I don't think that the USD currency pairs leave room for a much longer retracement period unless they break up from their declining wedges. In practical terms I am assuming that we have at least another week of retracement and perhaps as many as three.