It's been a long time since I've been able to write this, but today was absolutely sensational.
We are at a crucial point, however, and I would be very surprised if the market didn't recover somewhat at this point. For the /ES to push about 15 points higher from here (to around 900) would be healthy for the bears, I think.
Here's something simple I put together:
The horizontal lines are simply the Fibonacci retracements on the /ES from 1/6/09 to 3/6/09. The /ES has been quite fond of clinging to these levels. Now that we're at one of them, I imagine it'll noodle around here or fight its way higher. I am long the /ES right now as an insurance policy, since I've got 201 other positions, almost all of them bearish.
So the best thing for the bears right now would be (a) a push up to the 895-900 area; (b) a resumption of the drop; (c) which pierces the 880 level. At that point I think we've got a clear pathway to 835.
I'm very proud of us; good job, Slopers!