So far, GBP/USD has rallied into the 61.8 extension off of our potential wave (i) up for a possible (i)-(ii) i. We are now looking for a wave ii retrace into the 1.5451 – 1.5405 level for a potential entry of a short term long position for wave iii of (iii) up. Initial targets for wave iii com in around the 1.5706 – 1.5751 with targets of wave (iii) at the 1.5823 – 1.5939 zone. Invalidation of this setup comes in with a break under the 1.5294 level.
Originally published on ElliottWaveTrader.net, by Mike Golembesky.
I recently did a post about my odd relationship with Elliott Wave. A Sloper sent a very thoughtful email which I thought you’d find of interest. He has given me permission to publish it:
I’m a long time Slope reader, but rarely read comments and have never contributed (I just don’t have the time). Your recent post, My Odd Relationship with EW, really struck a cord so I thought you might find my experience somewhat interesting.
I was an Elliott Wave Theorist subscriber for years, roughly 1983-1990. While I was too late for the 1982 market blast off, subsequently read back issues verified that the EWT had nailed it. My live time experience for the first 4 years was exceptional. As you said in your post I was “stunned at its prescience”. The EWT called the temporary top in late 83 (best recollection on dates) and then the bottom in 84. And was preaching coming explosion higher.
I have, over the nearly eleven years (!) this blog has been around, largely avoided the topic of Elliott Waves. There is no shortage of posts here on Slope, largely by others, about the Elliott Wave theory (click here to see the list of them) but for myself, I hardly ever mention it.
One thing to understand how I analyze the markets is that I’m pretty damned lazy about using methods that don’t “sing” to me. That sounds like an odd verb to use, but it’s the one that’s always made the most sense. The things that sing to me – – those which resonate and make sense to me – – tend to be simple tools like horizontal support & resistance levels, trendlines, and, to a lesser degree, Fibonacci retracements.
I don’t go in for stochastics, Bollinger bands, relative strength indicators, moving averages, MACD, or any of that other stuff. I am awfully fond of analogs, as some of you know, but while some border on the magical (like the one I offered on Alcoa this year) others lead to completely erroneous predictions.
EURUSD: Move down could be a start of the long-expected wave v of (v) of 1 to (preliminary) 1.106 – 1.101 region. As long as 1.1215 signal level holds this remains my primary count.
Completion of the wave 1 is expected to provide us with a strong turn up and bounce in the wave 2. (click chart for a larger version)
The May 14th low in the USD/CAD counts best as the bottom of a large degree wave 4. The rally that we have seen that made a local top on August 4th counts as a very clear 3 wave structure so far. This leaves us looking for another high to complete our wave five wave structure off of the May 14th low.
Now while the pattern certainly does suggest that we should see new highs into the later part of the year the overall structure of the pattern ideally should see lower levels before heading higher into the final wave ((v)) up. These lower support levels currently come in at 1.2956 – 1.2770 which is shown on the chart in the form of a blue box, this is our buy zone. As long as we remain over the lower support level of 1.2770 then the probabilities are good that we will see new highs into the 1.3414 level with possible extensions into the 1.3688 level, these are our sell zones. Should we break under the 1.2770 level the count will still remain valid, however the probabilities of seeing follow-through to the upside under this count are reduced. A break under the 1.2563 level would invalidate this count and suggest that we may have made a more complex top on August 4th. This is the level that we would stop out of our trade.
Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) is following through on its downside path. However, so far, it hasn’t yet broken its June low of 17.62, so the potential for a move back to 19.03-19.55 in wave c of (ii) remains, which would have me looking to add to the short.
If 17.62 is broken, it appears likely that such move would find support in 17.08-17.27 range, to be followed by wave ii of (iii) up.
Whether through a high bounce or not, I think the odds are good that RSX will complete its downward pattern before expiration.
Originally published on ElliottWaveTrader.net, by Xenia Taoubina.
Well that was an impressive trend down day yesterday and a lot of technical damage down. I am now officially impressed, and while I had been thinking we might put in the retest high just before the holiday weekend, Greece has pulled that forward a few days and in all likelihood both the 2015 high and the retest are now in the review mirror. This would be a good time to pull together a few reference posts to show where I think we are here.
The first post is from Monday 2nd February where I confirmed that the January close on SPX met the criteria for some very bearish long term stats suggesting very strongly that the best case for SPX in 2015 would be a flat close, and the worst case a large decline. You can see that post here.