The SPX has continued its rally towards the ideal 2410SPX region this past week that we presented to you a month ago. And, it seems we still have a few squiggles to the upside left before this pattern is completed, and then tested.
Those with a short bias in this market have not fared very well. At each and every twist and turn, the market has proved its bullish intent, and continues to confirm our expectations that our long-term target of 2537-2611SPX will be met, if not even possibly exceed by next year.
In fact, I have warned for quite some time that we will begin to see former bears turning quite bullish, and we have seen this occur over the last several months. While I still do not believe we have reached the euphoric levels needed to mark a significant top, many former bears are coming over to the dark side.
Is It A Bull Market Or Bear Market In Metals?
First published on Saturday May 13 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: Without fail, each and every time the metals have dropped since bottoming over a year ago, many panic and proclaim the bear market to have returned. Moreover, many have looked to the USD as their guide to what the metals will do, and are completely befuddled when the dollar trades in tandem with the metals, as we have seen for almost two months.
As for me, well, since I was taught at a young age not to “ASSUME,” I only listen to price and try to ignore emotion as much as humanly possible. For this reason, I rely on my analysis to make decisions, as relying upon emotion often puts you on the wrong side of the market at the exact worst time. (more…)
In a recent interview I conducted with the legendary market technician Robert Prechter, he offered some very interesting insights into how he views today’s market, along with his perspective on socionomics. He also provides us with a general forecast as to how he sees the market playing out in the coming decade.
1. How did you come across Elliott wave analysis?
My dad subscribed to Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters, and he would occasionally forward his copies to me. In 1968, Russell began writing about A.J. Frost’s Elliott wave work. He published wave interpretations for the Dow off and on through late 1974, when he called the end of the bear market. During that time, I began charting gold and gold stocks, labeling the waves. After I became a professional technician at Merrill Lynch in 1975, I went on a search for Elliott’s original books, which were published in ring binders. The Library of Congress didn’t have them. Finally, I found copies on microfilm in the New York Public Library. It was a thrill coming across those listings on library cards. In 1980, I republished Elliott’s original books and articles in what is now called R.N. Elliott’s Masterworks. Later I published all of Bolton’s, Frost’s and Russell’s Elliott wave writings along with bios and notes. In case you know any Elliott wave fanatics who want these books, my staff set up a discount page good through May here.
2a. This question is simply asking for your perspective on how markets have changed – if at all – over the decades in which you have been analyzing Elliott waves. (more…)
Preface from Tim: Below is an item contributed from Avi, which obviously is in sharp contrast to my own point-of-view. I’m glad he wrote this, though, because it saved me some time in doing a post I was going to construct called “Elliott Wave’s Last Chance”. I will summarize what the post was supposed to be about………
Our friends in Gainesville were hyper-bearish from 2009 until sometime last year. Back in 2009, they stated that the S&P might claw its way back to 1000 or so, but then it was going to be plunging back beneath the 666 low. As most of you realize, this never happened. Year after year, though, the crash was always around the corner.
At some point – – I’m not sure when, but I think within the past year or so – – they massively changed their tune (and their wave count). Their current position is that LIFETIME highs are still forthcoming, pushing even past what we saw earlier this year. Avi seems to agree.