by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net
First published Sat Jan 7 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: This past week saw a very nice move higher in the GDX and gold, but silver has seriously lagged, which does dampen any outright bullishness at this time. But, let’s review where we stand overall.
Several weeks ago, as the GDX broke down below its .618 retracement, many were throwing in the bullish towel, and everyone seemed to adopt the “clear” heads and shoulders pattern presenting on the daily chart, while pointing to target levels below the January 2016 low. But, it just seemed too obvious to me, and it seemed like the market was setting everyone up.
In November, well before we broke the .618 retracement and well before we broke the neckline of the seeming heads and shoulders pattern, I wrote the following:
In our Trading Room at Elliottwavetrader.net and in my live video sessions with our members, I have noted several times over the past weeks that the perfect bottoming set up would begin as the market recognizes a heads and shoulders pattern setting up in the GDX. And, many this past week were pointing to this “perfect” pattern, which they view as setting us up for new lows in the complex. In fact, it could be “too perfect” since the entire market seems to now be hyper-focused on how it is going to take us to lower lows.
From the folks at EWI………seems worth considering……could this be the end of the Trump rally?
I was tidying up some things in my home office today, and I noticed a couple of binders that I hadn’t looked at in years. They were labeled “Tim’s Trading Tome” volumes one and two. In them were hundreds of pages and charts I had collected in late 2008, 2009, and 2010, Early 2009 of course, was the bottom of the market, and we began a multi-hundred-percent climb (in the case of some stocks, multi-thousand-percent) climb.
Naturally, though, on the heels of the financial crisis, there were plenty of popular publications that were saying it was the start of something much bigger. Here’s a snippet from one we all know:
After recently hitting our 5th anniversary at Elliottwavetrader.net, and now exceeding 3000 members, I have learned quite a lot about market participants. For example, the one thing that hurts investors the most is when they lie to themselves or allow others to lie to them.
The problem is that there are so many fallacies accepted as gospel in the financial world that it causes investors to continually be looking the wrong way. And, worse yet, “analysts” without any analytical depth (or ethics) fall back upon these fallacies, which allows them to be inappropriately propagated even further throughout the market.
When I was in 5rd grade, my teacher had a sign hanging at the front of the room which said “put brain in gear before engaging mouth.” I would like to slightly modify this sound advice to fit our purposes in the financial markets: “put brain in gear before engaging pocketbook.”
by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net
First published Sat Oct 15 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: We have many analysts and commenters posting many different perspectives on the metals for years. Some view them as a terrible investment and others view it as the only reasonable investment. I am not going to discuss the merits or fallacies contained in both of their perspectives, but I would like to simplify the potential in the complex for the average investor.
You see, this complex is not that complex at all. Sentiment is what controls this market, and when sentiment reaches an extreme, the market shifts in the opposite direction. That is what we are patiently awaiting at this time.
Currently, our wave structure suggests that we can see one more lower low to complete a 5th wave in a c-wave of this wave ii pullback. While I certainly can be wrong in this assessment, this is my higher probability wave count at this time. And, as long as we remain over support, I will maintain this count and expectation.