Category Archives: E-Wave

The Stock Market Is Not Even Close To A Major Top

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by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

The stock market is too high.  The fundamentals don’t support these heights.  This rally is completely “fake” because it has been “manipulated.” The market is in “nosebleed” territory.  We are in a blow-off rally. The market is about to crash.  Yes, we have heard it all for months now.  Maybe even for years.  And, such perspectives have caused many to miss one of the best rallies we have seen in years, as they expect the market to top “any day now.”

But, the simple truth is that the market is in the heart of what us Elliotticians call a “3rd wave”, and they are relentless and the most powerful segment of a 5-wave Elliott structure.   In fact, we have been within the heart of a 3rd wave since early November when we went against the common “market-think” and called for a strong rally to 2300 and beyond on the S&P 500 (SPX), even though Trump won the election.  But, it also means that we still have to complete waves 3, 4 and 5 before a long-term top is seen, as I have been noting since early 2016, which you can see in a chart of our market calls in the link below.

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Were There Clues To The Rally?

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Well, here we are with the S&P500 Futures approaching 2300, Nasdaq at all-time highs, Dow at 20,000, and Russell showing strength after 1.5 months of consolidation.

Were there clues?

Well, if you believe in Elliott Wave voodoo magic, we had what might be a textbook ending diagonal – (very difficult to spot while it’s forming) – that then reversed after completing.

Russell: Ending Diagonal

The Russell completed a 1-2-3-4-5 ending diagonal where each number was an a-b-c zig zag. We alerted a Buy right at the optimal point.

Dow Jones: Break of Descending Trend Line (more…)

Could The Miners Have Provided The Ultimate Fake Out?

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by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

First published Sat Jan 7 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net:  This past week saw a very nice move higher in the GDX and gold, but silver has seriously lagged, which does dampen any outright bullishness at this time.  But, let’s review where we stand overall.

Several weeks ago, as the GDX broke down below its .618 retracement, many were throwing in the bullish towel, and everyone seemed to adopt the “clear” heads and shoulders pattern presenting on the daily chart, while pointing to target levels below the January 2016 low.  But, it just seemed too obvious to me, and it seemed like the market was setting everyone up.

In November, well before we broke the .618 retracement and well before we broke the neckline of the seeming heads and shoulders pattern, I wrote the following:

In our Trading Room at Elliottwavetrader.net and in my live video sessions with our members, I have noted several times over the past weeks that the perfect bottoming set up would begin as the market recognizes a heads and shoulders pattern setting up in the GDX.  And, many this past week were pointing to this “perfect” pattern, which they view as setting us up for new lows in the complex.  In fact, it could be “too perfect” since the entire market seems to now be hyper-focused on how it is going to take us to lower lows.

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Is It Time to Give Up?

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Is It Time To Give Up? by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

First published Sat Dec 17 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net:  When dealing with markets, one must avoid, as much as possible, emotional responses and simply focus on the facts before us.  Last weekend, I presented my “factual” analysis of the market, and explained why I have retained a larger degree bullish perspective.  I suggest you review what I wrote so you can understand how I weigh the pros and cons in the complex, and why I have come to the conclusion I maintain.  Moreover, within the analysis I have been providing for the last month, I have been suggesting that another drop will likely be seen in the GDX and silver, and this past week that has finally been seen.

With the drop this past week in silver and GDX to lower levels below the November lows, the market has just about completed the pattern I have been tracking to end this correction which began in August. As I noted during my mid-week update, the initial rally off the Jan/Dec lows took 8 months, and the correction has now taken half that time.  This is quite normal for timing on corrections, so there is nothing unusual about the timing aspect of the correction.

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Time For The Gold Bulls To Step Up – If There Are Any Left

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 First published Sat Nov 19 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.netTwo weeks ago, I noted that we had a completed pattern to the downside in the equity market and it was time for the equity market bulls to step up.  And, boy, did they ever. Now, it is time for the metals bulls to do the same.  But, it seems I cannot find them.

Last weekend, I noted that the bulls have gone into hiding.  This past week, they were scared even further into their shell.  Yes, bullish sentiment in the complex has dropped to almost nothing.  For those that review market sentiment readings, you will know that we have almost no bulls left in this market, or at least bulls who are willing to admit it.  That is often a strong indication that we are bottoming, and not collapsing.

I also noted in my last weekend report that, if our pattern was going to hold for potential bottoming in the complex, we would need to see a “bounce” early in the week, which would then likely lead to a lower low later in the week.  The market has followed through quite nicely with this bottoming pattern thus far.

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Empty Promises

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I was tidying up some things in my home office today, and I noticed a couple of binders that I hadn’t looked at in years. They were labeled “Tim’s Trading Tome” volumes one and two. In them were hundreds of pages and charts I had collected in late 2008, 2009, and 2010, Early 2009 of course, was the bottom of the market, and we began a multi-hundred-percent climb (in the case of some stocks, multi-thousand-percent) climb.

Naturally, though, on the heels of the financial crisis, there were plenty of popular publications that were saying it was the start of something much bigger. Here’s a snippet from one we all know:

1029-outlook

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