When I sat down to review how I can update the analysis I provided to our members in my mid-week update, I realized that there is not much more technical analysis I am able to add to what I wrote to our membership in my mid-week analysis, so I am going to repeat it here, with some additional general thoughts below:
While I strive to provide deep insight into the markets I track for you, I am somewhat at a loss in this region with the metals, especially with the various charts presenting quite differently.
For those that have followed me for years, you know when I am bullish and you know when I am bearish. And, for the great majority of the time, my bullishness and bearishness have been appropriate to prepare for impending price action. However, we are now in a region of uncertainty, and I don’t think I can classify it any better than that at this point in time. (more…)
Hindenburg omens. Market valuations. Record low volatility. And, I am only scratching the surface of all the reasons paraded before investors as to why this market is, in their opinion, “too high.”
So, is this time different? Have we finally conquered the business cycle and the stock market will rally on forever?
But, when article writers suggest that their old methods of market evaluation have failed them, and then conclude that we need to prepare for a market crash, it makes me question the logical if/then perspective of their analysis. (more…)
This past week, we experienced yet another horrendous terrorist attack in New York City. And, amazingly, just like what occurred after several other terrorist attacks that have been experienced over the last year, the market rallied right after the attack.
It has almost gotten to the point that people now expect the stock market to rally after a terrorist attack. Have we really become this warped in our thinking? Must we hold fast to ridiculous notions that news is what drives the stock market to the point that we have to resign ourselves to believing that the market will rally “because” of a terrorist attack? Do you not see how ridiculous these perspectives really are?
Yet, if the market dropped after a terrorist attack, there is no question in my mind that every analyst and their mother would be absolutely certain that the market dropped specifically due to the terrorist attack. Every article the next day would have been pointing to the attack being the definitive “cause” of the market drop. And, if I then challenged this false exogenous causation theory, the response I would receive is “don’t you believe your eyes?” Yet, not a single analyst dares to suggest that the markets are rallying because of news of terrorist attacks despite seeing many instances of this occurring over the last two years. Do, they not believe their eyes? (more…)
Happy Friday, everyone. Greetings from the Starbucks on the Google campus, where I’ve spent so many days and nights writing about the market while charging up the ol’ car. While I am usually quite prolific, my writing output cranked way down the past couple of days (and, hey, what’s with Springheel Jack? He used to be like clockwork, and now it’s like a post or two a week?) Anyway, I intend to resume my accustomed output.
As a comment cleaner, though, I’ll share a brief thought or two with respect to Elliott Wave. Many people – – the vast majority, it seems – – scoff at this realm as a ridiculous pseudo-science, akin to astrology, tarot card reading, or using planetary cycles. They could be absolutely right. But I haven’t utterly dismissed it.
I recently read a missive by John Mauldin wherein he makes an observation of what he is seeing from similar types of “analysis” of the stock market today:
“. . . a quick search of the usual suspects on the internet reveals a metric boatload of market analysts complaining about sky-high valuations, 8.5 years of bull market momentum, passive investing, over-concentration in cash-flow producing assets and the impending doom of a correction so massive it will clean our colons as well as our bank accounts.”
For those of you who read Seeking Alpha regularly, what percentage of the articles about the general equity markets have you read that have pointed to us being in a strong bull market and continuing much higher over the last 2 years? Based upon the ranking of the market analysts on this site, it would certainly suggest that most of the articles have leaned bearish, and, yes, I am being kind with that categorization. I mean, are these articles really necessary to explain to me that there are risks inherent in the financial markets? And, here I thought making money was easy. (more…)
Note from Tim: In case it isn’t screamingly obvious, I did not write this post.
Many will simply read the headline to this article, and use it as support for their belief in the market striking a multi-year top right now. I mean, aren’t headlines like this proof that the market is overheated?
Well, the answer is a definite “sometimes.” You see, back in 2015 and 2016 I was writing articles with headlines saying that we are going to target the 2500SPX region. And, if you thought that those headlines were portending the end of the bull market, then you were clearly wrong. So, consider, maybe this headline is prescient rather than a contrarian signal.