Category Archives: E-Wave

Could The Miners Have Provided The Ultimate Fake Out?

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by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

First published Sat Jan 7 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net:  This past week saw a very nice move higher in the GDX and gold, but silver has seriously lagged, which does dampen any outright bullishness at this time.  But, let’s review where we stand overall.

Several weeks ago, as the GDX broke down below its .618 retracement, many were throwing in the bullish towel, and everyone seemed to adopt the “clear” heads and shoulders pattern presenting on the daily chart, while pointing to target levels below the January 2016 low.  But, it just seemed too obvious to me, and it seemed like the market was setting everyone up.

In November, well before we broke the .618 retracement and well before we broke the neckline of the seeming heads and shoulders pattern, I wrote the following:

In our Trading Room at Elliottwavetrader.net and in my live video sessions with our members, I have noted several times over the past weeks that the perfect bottoming set up would begin as the market recognizes a heads and shoulders pattern setting up in the GDX.  And, many this past week were pointing to this “perfect” pattern, which they view as setting us up for new lows in the complex.  In fact, it could be “too perfect” since the entire market seems to now be hyper-focused on how it is going to take us to lower lows.

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Is It Time to Give Up?

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Is It Time To Give Up? by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

First published Sat Dec 17 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net:  When dealing with markets, one must avoid, as much as possible, emotional responses and simply focus on the facts before us.  Last weekend, I presented my “factual” analysis of the market, and explained why I have retained a larger degree bullish perspective.  I suggest you review what I wrote so you can understand how I weigh the pros and cons in the complex, and why I have come to the conclusion I maintain.  Moreover, within the analysis I have been providing for the last month, I have been suggesting that another drop will likely be seen in the GDX and silver, and this past week that has finally been seen.

With the drop this past week in silver and GDX to lower levels below the November lows, the market has just about completed the pattern I have been tracking to end this correction which began in August. As I noted during my mid-week update, the initial rally off the Jan/Dec lows took 8 months, and the correction has now taken half that time.  This is quite normal for timing on corrections, so there is nothing unusual about the timing aspect of the correction.

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Time For The Gold Bulls To Step Up – If There Are Any Left

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 First published Sat Nov 19 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.netTwo weeks ago, I noted that we had a completed pattern to the downside in the equity market and it was time for the equity market bulls to step up.  And, boy, did they ever. Now, it is time for the metals bulls to do the same.  But, it seems I cannot find them.

Last weekend, I noted that the bulls have gone into hiding.  This past week, they were scared even further into their shell.  Yes, bullish sentiment in the complex has dropped to almost nothing.  For those that review market sentiment readings, you will know that we have almost no bulls left in this market, or at least bulls who are willing to admit it.  That is often a strong indication that we are bottoming, and not collapsing.

I also noted in my last weekend report that, if our pattern was going to hold for potential bottoming in the complex, we would need to see a “bounce” early in the week, which would then likely lead to a lower low later in the week.  The market has followed through quite nicely with this bottoming pattern thus far.

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Empty Promises

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I was tidying up some things in my home office today, and I noticed a couple of binders that I hadn’t looked at in years. They were labeled “Tim’s Trading Tome” volumes one and two. In them were hundreds of pages and charts I had collected in late 2008, 2009, and 2010, Early 2009 of course, was the bottom of the market, and we began a multi-hundred-percent climb (in the case of some stocks, multi-thousand-percent) climb.

Naturally, though, on the heels of the financial crisis, there were plenty of popular publications that were saying it was the start of something much bigger. Here’s a snippet from one we all know:

1029-outlook

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Why Do You Allow Yourself to Be Manipulated?

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by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

After recently hitting our 5th anniversary at Elliottwavetrader.net, and now exceeding 3000 members, I have learned quite a lot about market participants.  For example, the one thing that hurts investors the most is when they lie to themselves or allow others to lie to them.

The problem is that there are so many fallacies accepted as gospel in the financial world that it causes investors to continually be looking the wrong way.  And, worse yet, “analysts” without any analytical depth (or ethics) fall back upon these fallacies, which allows them to be inappropriately propagated even further throughout the market.

When I was in 5rd grade, my teacher had a sign hanging at the front of the room which said “put brain in gear before engaging mouth.”  I would like to slightly modify this sound advice to fit our purposes in the financial markets: “put brain in gear before engaging pocketbook.”

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Simplifying the Complex Metals Complex

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by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

First published Sat Oct 15 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: We have many analysts and commenters posting many different perspectives on the metals for years. Some view them as a terrible investment and others view it as the only reasonable investment. I am not going to discuss the merits or fallacies contained in both of their perspectives, but I would like to simplify the potential in the complex for the average investor.

You see, this complex is not that complex at all. Sentiment is what controls this market, and when sentiment reaches an extreme, the market shifts in the opposite direction. That is what we are patiently awaiting at this time.

Currently, our wave structure suggests that we can see one more lower low to complete a 5th wave in a c-wave of this wave ii pullback. While I certainly can be wrong in this assessment, this is my higher probability wave count at this time. And, as long as we remain over support, I will maintain this count and expectation.

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