Category Archives: E-Wave

Nothing Can Stop This Market – Except?

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The SPX has continued its rally towards the ideal 2410SPX region this past week that we presented to you a month ago. And, it seems we still have a few squiggles to the upside left before this pattern is completed, and then tested.

Those with a short bias in this market have not fared very well. At each and every twist and turn, the market has proved its bullish intent, and continues to confirm our expectations that our long-term target of 2537-2611SPX will be met, if not even possibly exceed by next year.

In fact, I have warned for quite some time that we will begin to see former bears turning quite bullish, and we have seen this occur over the last several months. While I still do not believe we have reached the euphoric levels needed to mark a significant top, many former bears are coming over to the dark side.

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Is It A Bull Market Or Bear Market In Metals?

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Is It A Bull Market Or Bear Market In Metals?

By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

First published on Saturday May 13 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.netWithout fail, each and every time the metals have dropped since bottoming over a year ago, many panic and proclaim the bear market to have returned.  Moreover, many have looked to the USD as their guide to what the metals will do, and are completely befuddled when the dollar trades in tandem with the metals, as we have seen for almost two months.

As for me, well, since I was taught at a young age not to “ASSUME,” I only listen to price and try to ignore emotion as much as humanly possible.  For this reason, I rely on my analysis to make decisions, as relying upon emotion often puts you on the wrong side of the market at the exact worst time. (more…)

Are You Done Looking for a Stock Market Top?

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By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

After the market bottomed at the 2330SPX support we noted weeks ago, it has continued higher towards our ideal target at 2410SPX on Friday, after spending the week in a sideways consolidation.

If you are done looking for a market top, well, so are many other bears. After this past week’s move (which we called for), more and more bears are waving the white flag. And the reason, which amuses me the most, is that they are claiming that “the fundamentals now support a higher S&P500.”

As I have warned many times in the past, market fundamentals are a lagging indicator. I have explained it in great detail in prior articles:

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Consolidation Takes More Time

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I Still Think the Consolidation Takes More Time

By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

First published on Saturday April 22 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net   With the GDX breaking below the 24 level this past week, it has strongly suggested that it is not yet ready for a parabolic run.   And, as I noted during the mid-week update, it even opens the door to another drop below the March lows before the parabolic run begins:

“. . . the issue I have with it is that the high was struck into an a=c target, which most often denotes a corrective rally.  It is for that reason that I wanted to see the .618 extension of that rally hold so that I can continue to view it as an impulsive structure.   But, Fibonacci Pinball suggests that once that .618 extension breaks resoundingly, the greater probabilities shift towards that rally being a corrective rally.  For this reason, I am viewing the yellow count now as a much stronger potential.”

“Moreover, I will note that if we can see a higher high made in the GDX in the coming week, then I can consider the pattern as a leading diagonal up for a wave (i) as modified on the daily chart.  Yes, I know this has gotten more complex than I had wanted, but I am trying to maintain an open mind to the potential I am seeing in the market.”

As of the weekend, my perspective on GDX remains the same.

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Market Thoughts And Forecast From The Legendary Robert Prechter

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In a recent interview I conducted with the legendary market technician Robert Prechter, he offered some very interesting insights into how he views today’s market, along with his perspective on socionomics. He also provides us with a general forecast as to how he sees the market playing out in the coming decade.

1. How did you come across Elliott wave analysis?

My dad subscribed to Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters, and he would occasionally forward his copies to me. In 1968, Russell began writing about A.J. Frost’s Elliott wave work. He published wave interpretations for the Dow off and on through late 1974, when he called the end of the bear market. During that time, I began charting gold and gold stocks, labeling the waves. After I became a professional technician at Merrill Lynch in 1975, I went on a search for Elliott’s original books, which were published in ring binders. The Library of Congress didn’t have them. Finally, I found copies on microfilm in the New York Public Library. It was a thrill coming across those listings on library cards. In 1980, I republished Elliott’s original books and articles in what is now called R.N. Elliott’s Masterworks. Later I published all of Bolton’s, Frost’s and Russell’s Elliott wave writings along with bios and notes. In case you know any Elliott wave fanatics who want these books, my staff set up a discount page good through May here.

2a. This question is simply asking for your perspective on how markets have changed – if at all – over the decades in which you have been analyzing Elliott waves. (more…)

Beware Of Delusional Market Timers

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Preface from Tim: Below is an item contributed from Avi, which obviously is in sharp contrast to my own point-of-view. I’m glad he wrote this, though, because it saved me some time in doing a post I was going to construct called “Elliott Wave’s Last Chance”. I will summarize what the post was supposed to be about………

Our friends in Gainesville were hyper-bearish from 2009 until sometime last year. Back in 2009, they stated that the S&P might claw its way back to 1000 or so, but then it was going to be plunging back beneath the 666 low. As most of you realize, this never happened. Year after year, though, the crash was always around the corner.

At some point – – I’m not sure when, but I think within the past year or so – – they massively changed their tune (and their wave count). Their current position is that LIFETIME highs are still forthcoming, pushing even past what we saw earlier this year. Avi seems to agree.

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Please Don’t Shoot The Messenger

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By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

In many of my articles, I have been attempting to enlighten those with open minds as to the true nature of the stock market. While most market participants have been trained to believe that the market is mechanically driven by exogenous causation, I have been providing historical and recent examples of why this simply is a market fallacy.

We have had some resounding real world examples over the last two years to poke some significant holes into the mechanical exogenous causation perspective. Remember back to the Charlie Hebdo attack in France, the Fed rate hike in December of 2015, the certain “crash” calls in February 2016, Brexit, Trump, the Fed rate hike in December 2016, etc. We have experienced many news “shocks” which were supposed to cause serious damage to the market over the last several years. Yet, the market was still able to provide us with a 600 point rally up to 2400SPX from February of last year, and this is all AFTER the Fed stopped QE.

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