Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Financial Toilet Paper

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If there's one conclusion I drew from my chart-gazing last night, it was that the financials are completely, totally, and stupidly overbought. They have gone up hundreds of percent based on vapors and printing presses. This rise in financials is not sustainable.

In my IRA I sold off six finance positions which had gains of about 70% over the past week. At the same time, I decided (sorry, I couldn't help myself) to give FAZ another go, since I felt that was the best way to take advantage of what I felt was an imminent softening. I bought 2,000 FAZ @ 24.63. This is not a technical analysis play. The chart isn't really useful to me from a technical standpoint. This is merely a short-term vehicle for profiting from what the other financial charts are telling me, which is that the soaring financials will lose their loft.

Bemis and Butthead

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I guess I was more troubled by yesterday's Fed-rape than I thought, since I was up at 3:30. I did go through all my Core List of charts last night, and I am more convinced than ever that this rally over the past 7 days is based on vapor, paper, and ink. There's nothing real about it. I saw plenty of good short opportunities, and hardly any good long opportunities.

I am not blind to what a good buy looks like. I thought /ES was a great buy down at 670, but I screwed up that trade royally. The projection to 800 was a simple act of arithmetic. But, bullish as everyone suddenly is, there is no way I am going to be buying into the /ES at these levels.

Here's an example of one of the fine shorts I uncovered yesterday evening:

Now that's a nice, clean chart.

As for the wonderful world of FAZ and FAS, I've had enough of those for a while. The shenanigans going on from Bernanke and Geithner make it closer to gambling than trading. I'm going to focus more on the basics. I do think financials as a whole are being puffed up worse than any other sector, but FAZ, from a chartist's point-of-view, is in a no man's land.

Anyway, good luck today………….it's got to be better than yesterday. I hope!

Don Quixote or Donkey Kong?

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After a day like this, the song Humble as a Bumble Bee strikes me as appropriate. It is written by one of the great unappreciated musical talents, John Wesley Harding. Here's a video of him doing this song in a store, and beneath I've placed the lyrics. He's a marvelous lyricist.

Once upon a time
I could have had it all
A princess with a price on her head
Or the prince who'd climb her wall
But when pride has it in for someone
None of us can check the fall
Now I'm humble as a bumblebee
I'm getting used to how things have to be
Just another mumble
Buzzing round and round in rings
So afraid that I won't be king

This is the sting, I still want everything
Here is the twist, you're on my list and
Here's what I mean, you're still the queen
And I want you

Now I wonder
If I will ever be
The lighthouse in a sea of shadows
That you were when you shined for me
When I was going under
You knew when and where to be

Now I'm as good as Ebenezer after his conversion
I'd give all my goods away with no coercion
I'd give almost anything
Just to hear the hum of your wings

This is the sting, I still want everything
Here is the twist, you're on my list and
Here's what I mean, you're still the queen
And I want you, honey, I want you

I was as 'umble as Uriah
Just before his tumble
But I fumbled for the best of me
Amongst the jumble
Heaven knows where we went wrong
Don Quixote or Donkey Kong

This is the sting, I still want everything
Here is the twist, you're on my list
Here's what I mean, you're still the queen
And I want you, honey, I want you………….

The US Dollar

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The dollar plunged huge today (which pushed gold sky-high). In the world of FX, this kind of move made people rich (or broke) very quickly. It would be like Google going up $200. You just don't see moves like this very often. (This graph is the EUR/USD, which naturally exploded higher today).

There's a lot of room for the EUR/USD to ease back. I'd be a lot more excited buying into this market if the dollar consolidated back to about $1.32 on this chart. That would make a really beautiful confirmed saucer breakout.

That's probably it for me for the night. What a day, eh? I'm going to go decompress.