Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Trader’s Mind

By -

Prompted by Burger King's flameout and decision not to trade, a lot of folks in comments have been talking about, for lack of a better term, the Trader's Mind.

This is an important topic to me, since I think it's vital to successful trading. The first two books listed on my Recommended Reading page are directly related to trading psychology, and I would say that the part of me which has improved the most as a trader in the past couple of years has been my mindset toward the markets.

Although I am well-off by some measures, I am most decidedly not a wealthy man, so losing or making a lot of cash in a given day should affect me emotionally. I confess, it does a little bit, but probably only 5% as much as it would for most people. Sure, I get a little excited when things are really going by way, and I feel somewhat irked when they don't, but by and large I have divorced my mind from the real-world meaning of those dollar figures bouncing around the screen.

The real challenge is dealing with other people. I've explained to Mrs. Bear (and Mrs. Bear-in-Law) that I'm not going to talk about my trading P&L except on an occasional, pre-determined basis. It has nothing to do with hiding anything. It has everything to do with me staying in my own private space. If I make a lot of money, I don't want to announce it and create a lot of excitement (and/or spending). And if I lose a lot of money, I don't want to be put in the position of explaining myself and why I didn't close out positions at precisely the right moment (in retrospect).

Exposing myself to the readers here is different for a few reasons. One, there is no personal relationship. Two, there aren't hard-dollar figures involved. And three, by and large the folks who are active in comments tend to be real traders themselves, and we all speak the same language. I'm not going to feel compelled to explain myself to any of you except in terms of errors I've made in charting and judgment. For that reason, interactions on this blog are constructive.

Discipline, clear-headedness, a well-defined plan, a predictable trading environment, and a Spock-like lack of emotions all add up to better trading. We can hoot and holler after the trading day is done. In the meantime, keep your game face on.

Between the Scylla and Charibdis

By -

Today was one of those days where 95% of profits or losses are established within the first hour of the day. Besides that, the market just noodled around.

I hung on to virtually all of my shorts, although I took profits on my OIH puts (about 35% gain) and a handful of other items. Most of all, I added new long positions. As things stand now, I've got about 100 longs, 100 shorts, and 50 options (all puts). So as you can, I'm very hedged, but somewhat tilted to the bearish side. Neither a big up or big down day is going to hurt me badly or make me a lot of money.

It's becoming clear to me that…..

  • The way to make a lot of money slowly over time is in a bull market;
  • The way to make a lot of money quickly is in a bear market

This fact is a bit depressing, since I think it'll be a half year or more before we can rock 'n' roll to true bear market behavior again. I'm going to miss it! Waiting is the hardest part.

In the meantime, I'm straddling both rowboats, bullish and bearish. My goal, as I've said, is to make money most days, but not nearly as much in percentage terms as if I had a pure bullish (on up days) or bearish (on down days) portfolio. To put it another way, today the S&P was down 3.48%, yet in spite of my bearish tilt, I was up only about 1% (this percentage got squished pretty badly by the big percentage dips my high-flying IRA picks took).

Most of us have been talking about the dip to the 770-780 area on the S&P, and today we got it. This is not the most gorgeous, rock-solid base I've ever seen in my life. It's actually pretty messy; a dip below 760 would really put any move upside at risk. But I'm thinking 750 or so is a pretty firm support zone for the market, so as stocks lose some of their air, I'm looking to buy more of them.