Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Does Tim Ever Do Number Two?

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"Every piece of this is man's bullshit. They call this war a cloud over the land. But they made the weather and then they stand in the rain and say 'Shit, it's raining!" – Cold Mountain

The second of my three trading rules posits that the only closing price should be a stop price. In other words, I should never close a position at my own hand; only the stops should do it for me.

I think this is a great rule for trying to make the most of potential gains, but it's also the rule I break the most. Last week I was "closing out at great profits" all kinds of trades, but that is clearly a blatant violation of this rule.

One or two people have asked me about this, since it seems hypocritical. I've been torn about whether to replace this rule with another or whether to rework it so it is more practical. After all, there are times when you look at a chart (particularly a short sale) and it's so profitable, and so "stretched" to the downside, that it seems foolish not to take profits.

Anyway, I recognize this, and I'll figure it out someday. As for the market here on Sunday night, it's being kind to my /ES short so far (down 8.50 as of this writing). I'll see you Monday morning.

Indexual Healing

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I have a couple of observations about the broad indexes, as I have been examining their 20 year daily charts this grey morning.

The first two are the $COMPQ and the $NDX, both of which are at major retracement levels. The $COMPQ is right at its retracement which starts way back in the autumn of 1990 (!) and was tagged last in 1998; the $NDX is in the midst of a couple of major Fibonacci retracements. This looks pretty bullish to me (and it's not lost on me that the likes of GOOG actually went up on a wretched day like Friday).

The other is a side-by-side of two $SPX charts; on the left is the bottom of the 2000-2002 bear market; and on the right is our current market. If on Monday we gap down and then end the day meaningfully higher (e.g. triple digits on the Dow), that would speak to a more extended bounce.

I am really doing a "deep dive" on the charts today, as my portfolio is at a record high and I want to defend my profits (and attempt to seek more) to the best of my abilities, without being wedded to any anticipated direction.