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There are an abundance of great trades out there. One I'll mention (on which I bought puts this morning) is Devry (DV). I've got a contingent stop on this above 50.99
I will note here that I have taken profits on all my big bearish positions – – I still have 143 positions, virtually all of them bearish, but the big boys I have taken out since we might be at a modest level of support on the /ES right now.
Well, the bulls are suckling from the hoary teat of failure this morning, and it couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of lads. I confess that I sold my ERY long, GLD short, and part of my TWM long a little while ago, but on the whole I am closing out only two things:
In other words, I'm leaving everything else open, albeit with increasingly unforgiving stops.
With the /ES down nearly 20, we seem to be at an important retracement level. But, just to keep beating a dead horse, I think 880 is just around the corner – – – then the real juncture is before us in terms of core direction.
There is no need to say anything more complex than this: the graph below isn't bullish. It shows what might have been a wonderful breakout for the bulls end up in failure.
To my eyes, a move toward 880 on the S&P is virtually a foregone conclusion. When we do get to 880, the bulls should be wringing their hooves over whether that level will hold. If it does, we'll just chop around between 880 and 920. If it doesn't hold, we're heading to 800.
Happy Father's Day, Slopers! This father is still in beautiful North Lake Tahoe with his family and, as always, has charts bouncing around his brain.
Crude oil has doubled in price in the span of just a few months, and given this market's adherence to the Fibonacci fan lines I've drawn, I see this entire sector as a tantalizing short.
I am already in position by way of being short USO as of a few days ago, and I think crude has a very good chance of losing at least $10 from these levels, so this is a position I can hang on to for a while longer – – I think I'd cover in the low 30s.
Have a good Sunday, everyone!
I stared at the ceiling early this morning wondering, "what am I going to write about?" (such are the torments of a compulsive blogger) The market isn't that terribly interesting right now, and writing about the doldrums isn't exactly captivating.
After some consideration, I have this notion to offer: those who believe that the bear market is still very much intact and will resume later this year (and – surprise! – I am among them) seem to fall into two general camps:
It's difficult for me to say which of those I would subscribe to; recent activity has been so mushy and messy that it's tough to reach even a speculative conclusion. I will say that, paradoxically, another big push higher would actually be ultimately better for the bears, since the subsequent fall would be more dramatic and, timed properly, much more profitable.
But given everything the US Government has done to aid the bulls so far, what other reasons could the market find to go higher? I can dream up a few:
Any or all of these circumstances would get the S&P to just above 1,000 or – – – and this is truly as high as I could envision it going – – – to about 1125.
For bears, having an S&P back in the quadruple digits would present an absolute feast of an opportunity.
All this speculation aside, I currently remain very short the market, although with some trepidation. I went through my "Wrecks" watch list (from which I draw my lottery plays), and I was kind of surprised to find a few dozen pretty intriguing setups. It's discomfiting for me to see that the potential "leadership" for a rally remains with the junky stocks I follow, because I find scant choices in the world of, shall we say, real stocks.
And thus ends my all-text post. Chart-happy though I may be, I have no diagram to offer that I find worth showing you. So I'll simply bid you a productive and peaceful Saturday.
