It's a drag putting up with these one-hit wonders (today's, of course, is "Buy Goldman Sachs" – – one woman's opinion on one company), but it doesn't fundamentally change my view on the market's direction in the coming weeks.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Short IEF or Long TBT
I started backing off my wild-eyed short-term bearishness on Friday, and I've continued to do so today. Whatever bounce we're going to get might be confined to today, but today's reversal has been meaningful. I went up up 1% to down 1% in the span of about 90 minutes.
For the moment, one good opportunity I see is what I believe will be a rise in interest rates. I think IEF is going to go down and TBT is going to go up. I've gone long TBT. Below is IEF, which I wasn't able to find to short, but it's worth considering if you can locate any.
OIH Moving Well
OIH moved nicely down this morning, even with the market's initial rise. This is encouraging.
A fulfillment of this pattern's potential would put OIH back into the mid-60s. I'm hanging on to my shorts.
The Collective Mind
If you're ever curious how the mass of humanity thinks (or at least what it seeks), start to type in any phrase into Google, and it'll present you with a series of suggestions, ranked by popularity. For example…….
Perhaps one shouldn't be surprised that the top choice wasn't along the lines of "why is my potential unfulfilled?". Twitching eyes and colorful poop seem to be of more interest.
We can try again.
Again with the twitching eyes and the poop. Perhaps if people wouldn't stare into the toilet so much, their eyes would twitch less.
I need to reset my mind. Off to my breakfast table with the Times. Be back later.
From C to Shining C
The folks over at Elliott Wave International published a chart on their Friday update which I like quite a lot, shown below:
And this is where the real question for me is – – – will the market (a) not see the highs from June at all again this year, tumbling from these levels, as suggested in yesterday's post?; or (b) stabilize somewhat around 800 or so on the S&P, gain strength (for God Knows What Reasons) and finally push up to the ~1,000 level, and then really fall to pieces.
I really wish I knew, because when the S&P does get to around the ~800 level, nothing's going to matter more to one's trading success than picking the right train! If it's (a) and you choose (b), then you're going to miss out on the fall, and if it's (b) and you choose (a), you're going to get badly damaged, just like the March-June period from 2009 as well as 2008. Grumble.
