Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
We are now trading at levels on the /ES not seen since May. The green shoots are bursting into flames before everyone's eyes.
The only weak spot among all my holdings are my lottery positions, which I am partially ditching. Otherwise, I am simply tightening stops, as I am "fully loaded" on the bear side.
Happy New Week, everyone. I'm ready to tackle the first full week of trading with my big honkin' monitors and my big honkin' ambitions.
It looks like energy is going to grab the market by the throat this morning. Judging from the very nicely-formed head/shoulders pattern on OIH, I'd say we're heading for ~$70 before any real strength re-appears.
I was musing about a scenario that probably plays itself out thousands of times a day in the formerly great state of California, where I reside:
Pretty sad, isn't it? This isn't fiction, though. The above situation is repeated every day of the week. It's only more dramatic now since California is issuing scrip for its bills now.
I'm back home, and I'm reveling being surrounded by big monitors again. Being a holiday weekend Sunday, I only looked at a few charts, and I have another outlandish and bold prediction to make: by autumn of this year, Gold will return to about $700 per ounce, and crude oil will be in the $30s or low $40s.
And with that, I shall return to my Sunday New York Times. See you Monday morning!
Well, I am getting ready to head home this morning after a beautiful and peaceful week at Fallen Leaf Lake.
Long-time readers know some of my quirks when it comes to camp (such as my sanctimonious disposition toward the proper way marshmallows should be roasted), but my once-a-year love of archery stands out. I used to like shooting arrows as a boy, so our annual trek to Stanford Sierra Camp allows me to recapture a bit of my misspent youth.
I had promised Mrs. Bear that I would once again win her a milkshake – – the prize for hitting a difficult target. This year was frustrating for me, though, because other campers kept beating me to the punch. I was worried that I would get skunked this year.
Finally, on the last day of camp, I went to the archery range with a very crowded field of competitors. On that day, the milkshake would go to the person who put an arrow through an apple at a substantial range.
Literally hundreds of arrows were attempted by the crew, and they all missed. People eventually became frustrated and bored, and one by one they left. But there was no way I was going to let Mrs. Bear go shake-less this week, so even though my drawing fingers felt like they were about to start bleeding, I kept at it. Just me and one other fellow were the other ones left on the field.
And then, finally…………
Victory is mine! I can go home now.
Hi Tim
I'm a big fan of Slope and was intrigued by a comment in your latest missive – "I cannot picture a scenario in which we get above it this year." Perhaps there is. I call it Rally 2, instigated in much the same way as Rally 1, but in a much more compressed time frame.
I am a behaviourist at heart. Once I have digested some of the fundamentals, the technicals, EWs, chart-pattern formations, Dow Theory, Fibs (and trader views such as yours) et al, I put my behaviour hat on.
Elliot Wavers such as Robert McHugh, Karimba, Lamoureux and even EWI's own STU, have expected this June 11 top to be followed by:
– a zig-zag down (albeit on differing wave counts) to a mid/late July bottom
– followed by a final summer surge (or what I call Rally 2)
– followed by Catastrophic wave C down in the autumn.
I know this idea is popular out there, except with Elliot Waver Bill Neely who has called the top as Jun 11, like you.
I am not a conspiracy theorist but I do believe that we have just witnessed some of the strongest market intervention by the President's Committee or the PPT (call it what you will) that we have ever seen. The conditions for intervention were perfect. Loaded up shorts, lower-than-average volume, a weakening USD, bail-out funds sloshing to big banks balance sheets via the AIG conduit, and the outrageous tweaking of accounting rules. It didn't take much buying of the market to drive a short-squeeze that could be put into fifth gear by 'dumb money' and fed by the 'green shoots' brigade.
I expect much of that to happen again. I expect a down towards 7800 in the next fortnight. Shorts will be loading up as the Jun11 top argument gains traction. This is just as we enter the summer doldrums on volume. Next, I believe the USD isn't going to bounce any further than 84 on the index in the coming fortnight. Thereafter, the pressure will be back on (for all sorts of very obvious reasons) and we'll see a falling dollar that's great for stocks (Inflation looms, will be the call). The bond recovery is looking like the dollar too. Renewed pressure on bonds will reignite the yields (inflation looms, will be the call) and drive minds to stocks again. And people will be saying "where's that next rally?". Oh, and "Inflation is looming". Did I mention inflation?
Behaviourally, the mood will be dominated by those not wanting to miss out on 'the next rally'. Many of them did miss out on Rally 1. But not Rally 2. They will be in there early when the very first of the new green shoots appear (what do we call these?). As usual, these will have been planted by the Fed, watered by the big banks, and fertilised by the media. Expect the last week of July and the first week August to be happy blue-sky days on the news tickers. We'll get commodity speculation to kick it all off, and upswings on market-proxy Goldman Sachs. I really don't think it will take much to turn this current mini-reversal and create Rally 2.
But compared to Rally 1, I expect a take-off of rocket proportions – a true stampede for the markets. 1050 tops for the S&P, 9700 for the DOW look like a shoe-in under this scenario. And then the rocket fuel will run out as some piece of macro news, that can't be manipulated, finally makes folks understand what deflation is really all about, and why we need Austrian economics not fiscalism. The plunge will be un-protectable.
I'm a behaviourist and I know things have a (bad) habit of repeating themselves, so I'm for Rally 2.
And I know I may also be wrong. That's why I'm currently 75% cash and ready either way, watching GS, BKX, copper, gold and oil like a hawk.
Thanks for your site.
Nick
