Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Metal and Miners (by Steve)

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I was trying to write this up yesterday before GSS reported but I was called out on a trip. I have a full time job and am not always actively trading.

Trying to write something that may be helpful to you all or even to some of you is a real challenge for me, as I came to this site to try and learn from more active traders and especially to try and incorporate technical analysis into risk management skills. Trying to write a quality post is forcing me into a Baptism by Fire scenario and I will keep it simple as that is what has worked for me.

Lots of great posts once again preceding this one on precious metals. I have had at least 50% of my net worth in metal and miners off and on for the past several years, and this is not a suggestion, but something that I slowly became more and more comfortable with over time as events unfolded validating my views. I view it as insurance in a sense and I try to trade around core mining positions and SLV, nearly always from the long side.

I have no idea on the next 10-20% and I don't much care one way or another. That may sound flippant, but if I had confidence that I could capture that move, I would do so. I need to see greater enthusiasm in a spike like fashion for me to do much selling of my trading positions right now. Remember that I am trying to emulate the quote from the Livermore book,in the earlier post about making most of his money in the sitting, not the thinking. I rarely looked at a chart the past two years and it could have been very helpful had I done so.

Silver really seems to be the poor man's gold as the coin store keeper tells me they loved it at 20 and sold it back to him at 16 last year. They have not been back. Continuous higher prices always bring them back it seems. I will buy more at 15 and lower. Here is a view on silver, when owning a full position around this time last year felt like this.

Silver

Three of the major gold miners (NEM,GG,AEM) reported last week and the stocks had different reactions to "the news" initially. I own GG and AEM and mentioned that I was buying the initial break the next day at 58 area just above the trend line. Further opportunity followed on day two of "sell the news".

Aem2 

Here is a one year view of GG

Gg

Last year was gut check time for those of us too long metal. I had made a great sale of GG at 50 and trimmed some other gold stocks and I was looking to buy it back lower. I had roughly 10% long puts and long precious metal and I was feeling loaded for bear. I started buying GG back at 38, 33,28 23. Arms,legs and torso gone. I spent some hard time thinking it through and believed that my thesis was still intact and that the pricing was a good old fashioned "sell everything" liquidation.

I had bought a small amount of GSS at 1.50 and 1.20 on the way down and then I started putting in bids in all my accounts and wound up with nearly 70,000 shares bought between .41c -.68c. I had similar fills in smaller size on some other juniors. This was not planned but acting on the fly. I had much larger orders not filled below these levels. Looking back it would have been great to have liquidated my metal and had fresh eyes into the plunge. I did not sell on the rally and bought more from 1.20-1.80 and some Jan -Feb calls. I still have the bulk of my GSS position and have only sold 5k shares in the mid 3's.

Last post I showed the FCX Pref M as the one that got away. So far GSS is one that did not get away, and it has been very difficult to keep the position to this point. I can have 50k swings daily, but that is reflective of the volatility in the precious metal stocks. Use it to your advantage short or long.

Here is a view of GSS long,med,short term.

Gss10yr

Gss 1yr
!cid_sc

So far I have done well under some seriously adverse pricing. Now that pricing is more favorable I am not dancing on the clouds. I am trying to manage my way through these times and I was fortunate to have bought some things right. I will need to sell it right as well. It now feels more like this ride – – especially after writing this post.

Chemical Breakdown (oulous)

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Daspan. Forget gold. Forget oil. The most valuable commodity in the world right now is DaspanDaspan was discovered somewhere between March 2009 and July 2009. No one person discovered it although I am tempted to name our very own Ben Bernanke as the lucky prospector but that's for historians to decide years from now.

The elements of Daspan have been around for over 100 years but they have rarely formed a stable material. Daspan has always been volatile and difficult to control, until recently. Several months ago it was discovered that a low value chemical called USD could be mixed with Daspan to create a new compound. When USD is mixed into Daspan the result is a fascinating reaction that creates an inflating cloud like mass that can be used to prop up weak foundations.

The problem with this compound is its temporary nature. Without additional funding to eventually fix the foundations they will crumble completely. So using this new compound is very risky if you are unable to get additional funding before the stop gap fails.

To understand the trade in Daspan one needs to first do a chemical break down of this commodity. D is one part Dow, and SP is one part S&P, and N is one part Nasdaq thus equaling the easy to remember DaSPaN (all a's = and).

The second part of understanding Daspan is knowing what it used to be before its recent evolution. Daspan used to be a chemical in three parts representing a complex system known as a stock market. This stock market quite simply was a group of capitalist companies that the public could speculate on by trading shares that represented the value of said companies.

I mentioned gold and oil earlier because those two commodities surpassed most peoples expectations of value. Gold couldn't go higher, it was over valued. Oil couldn't go higher it was over valued. I read this over and over in the news and yet both of these commodities surpassed expectations and indeed both can be argued as being under valued or over valued. The point is they were in the hands of traders and traders pushed those values higher. The reality of value as a related and tangible amount is difficult to model as an investment/trading strategy. Invariably a strange unforeseen event will always destroy this perception and leave those whom bet the wrong way with substantial losses.

Many people are excellent at making large bets on commodities and that's how bulls/bears should be treating this market, as a single commodity. It is a new paradigm made up of a flimsy compound and it will continue to surpass expectations until the foundations crumble or by some miracle we fix it. (aka economic recovery). The walls may crack, the windows might shake but until the pockets of investment banks are stuffed with government money transferred via the stock market, betting against the continued rise of this commodity will be like wrapping yourself in razor wire after a lemon bath. The viscous and brutal down draft will be difficult to time, it may be tomorrow or 3 months from now, it might not come at all. I will wait for it rather than time it.

There is no market, there is only a government supported commodity and this unstoppable force has turned the markets into a hyper movable object.