Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Longs (by Jeff Paterson)

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Thought I would throw out some charts for your perusal on the long side. I like to buy leaders in the market and think these can be bought at decent support levels. I will refrain from any analysis and keep it simple. One I did not show was CL and I must thank TK for pointing that one out, so I thought I would reciprocate and post some charts that may be appealing to others looking for ideas.

First is a weekly chart of LFC.Snapshot-46

KO daily

Snapshot-47

IAG weekly

Snapshot-48

BUCY monthly

Snapshot-49

CRM weekly

Snapshot-50

FLS weekly

Snapshot-51

AMT weekly

Snapshot-52

SYT weekly

Snapshot-53

CREE weekly

Snapshot-54

Cultural Touchpoints Worth Noting

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It's been a pretty good day so far. I got stopped out of my Bank of America short (thanks, Paulson……) but otherwise I've been doing OK (these things are relative, of course; "OK" means a profit, as opposed to getting mauled).

Since this blog is its own day-by-day history of the market as it reveals itself, and since we may look back on these troubled times in the months to come, I like to lay down cultural markers along the way.

First is the following email which I received this morning. This isn't what I would call hate mail at all (I don't bother showing you that; it would depress you too much); it simply indicates an exasperation with anyone who would use methods which, for most of this year, have been worthless. The multitudinous syntactical and grammatical errors make it a tough read, but you'll get the idea:

i gotta say – each to their own but are you really going to keep this pursuit of 'technical analysis' going – it is just the biggest load of shit i have ever seen in my life. i check in on your site to get a guage on sentiment of traders and from that perspective it is fairly useful to get a handle on how the little rats are chasing their tail……particularly this year as you have been trying to short it all year and been a bit wrong. don't get me wrong, i am sure your IQ is higher than mine…but seriously making decisions based on this little line did this and then taht so now it should do this…..you just can't live your life like this. i book i read once called the MONEY gAME, AM SURE YOU HAVE READ IT BUT THE CHAPTER ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SUMS IT UP. if the little line reaches this level and then retraces …it will have been a successful test of that level…if it goes through that level it will have been a breach…….gee …what a revelation !!! and what about that old question – put 5 technical traders, elliott wave, fibonnachies in a room with a chart in 5 different cubicles and watch them all come out with ompletely different lines from each other based on what….??? IT'S A RANDOM WALK………………you are wasting your life. kind reagrds Dom. ps: the little line will continue to go higher as the world is seeing the largest restocking of inventories since 1974 and don't fight the fed and margin expansion (due to massive cost out) is providing for continued upward revisions in earnings and hence what looks expensive is actually cheap.

The other is this item from last month's Business Week. I'll submit this to you without comment.

1118-business

Nathaniel VS Silver (by Nathaniel Goodwin)

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I've been pretty bearish on Silver (a metal I am allergic to and despise), and Monday I got my face ripped off.

The chart below looked rather bearish to me especially with that possible head and shoulders that had been forming since September, many indicators also showed nice divergence on the daily chart. I opened a short position last week feeling pretty good about it.

The one thing that made me a little uncomfortable was the volume. Look at that spike in volume during the rally of the right shoulder. I should have paid more attention to it since it plays such an important part in the formation. I see possible H&S formations all the time in charts, rarely do any work out without volume confirming the formation. That high volume rally forming the right shoulder should have been a warning that this probably won’t pan out as head and shoulders formation. Stupid me… 

SLV

My contact-dermatitis, which had been working *for me* the past couple of months as a leading indicator, was off the scale when I saw silver prices Monday morning. (Doctors tell me this is more of a psychological thing since I have no physical silver in the house) Someone here told me I should not use allergies as a tool to trade with and I now agree, especially since my allergic breakout was psychological and that alone could get me killed if I don't have emotions under control. I also think that with all the fancy oscillators and indicators available, basic chart patterns and volume should never be neglected.

I got out of my Silver shorts Tuesday morning when silver took a "breather", and already my itching has stopped and the rash has started to clear up. I still think that Silver has a nice correction coming, but did not want to add to the position. I don't like adding to this kind of a trade, and precious metals are too goofy for me at these levels. I think I'll see a much better opportunity for shorts elsewhere soon; I'll deal with silver later.