Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Times versus Times

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I haven't seen a stronger contrast between the markets and the real world is quite a while. Thumbing through the Times this morning, even I was surprised at the mountain of dire news about forthcoming economic and business conditions. Yet the markets seem absolutely doe-eyed about the bright future ahead of us.

It all boils down to this: equity markets are going up because our currency is on a relentless path to debasement. Thus, precious metals fans are having the greatest time – – the best in about thirty years. Even mega-bulls like Gary Savage were, last week, suggesting that it might be time to take some PM profits and reload later at more favorable prices, but the runaway PM train just keeps chugging along.

The /ES has been in a 30-point range for about the past nine days, and we're at the upper end of it as of this moment:

1123-es

Thanksgiving week tends to be pretty bullish (although seasonality has had very poor predictive power this year). Personally, I've been stopped out of about 14% of my positions this morning. My dog's summation of the day so far? "Ruff."

Book Review: An Empire of Wealth (by bilabng888)

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Published in 2004, An Empire of Wealth by John Steele Gordon explores the economic history of the United States from Henry Hudson sailing the Half Moon up the Hudson
River
in 1609 to the terrorist attacks of September 11th,
2001.  Mr. Gordon’s premise is to show
that America
was formed primarily out of a profit-seeking motive and became the first nation
to achieve superpower status via economic pathways as opposed to military aggression.

An Empire of Wealth

An Empire of Wealth
provides a fascinating record of our nation’s multitudinous speculative booms
and busts, technological revolutions, Wall Street shenanigans, corporate
espionage, persistent legislative ineptitude, experiments with having and not
having a central bank, our rocky history with the gold standard, Yankee
Ingenuity, fluctuations between massive budget surpluses to deficits, and
countless other stories of industrial heroism and nefarious greed.  Empire does an excellent job of
covering America’s
epic development as an economic superpower.

While Empire is not a “how
to” book for a trader, it provides incredible insight into the history and
character of the American economy; the playing field on which we all competing.  More importantly, Empire thoroughly explores
the development of the great entity of Wall Street.  To know one’s history is to better understand
one’s future.

For example, Empire shows
that in the 1640’s, during the formative years of Nieuw Amsterdam (now Manhattan), over 18 languages
were spoken, the seal consisted a beaver (the main commodity being traded)
surrounded by wampum (Indian currency), and it took the settlers 17 years to
erect the first church.  An international
collection of people focused first on trade and second on all other
pursuits.  It appears not much has
changed in Manhattan
since its original founding.

Mr. Gordon walks the reader
through countless booms and busts, and in by doing so, he shows us how
repetitive the American economic cycle is. 
We currently are all trying to trade through “unprecedented times,” but
after reading Empire, one realizes our current environment is nothing
new.  With this understanding of history,
a trader can achieve some level of serenity and be able to better predict where
we are going.

Empire provides a solid
compilation of the causes and effects of the Great Depression.  To drive home the point that “everything old
is new again,” let two lesser known facts from the 1930’s be brought to
light.  First, in the fall of 1932 the
yield on Treasury Bills went negative. 
Secondly, in 1938, Richard Whitney and Company, led by the former
President of the New York Stock Exchange, was discovered to be engaging in a
massive embezzlement scheme to defraud all of its investors.  6,000 people gathered to watch Mr. Madoff
Whitney be led away in handcuffs and sent to Sing Sing.  Sound familiar?

Read An Empire of Wealth.  It humbles the reader by showing that we are
all just one of the hundreds of millions of people who have participated in the
American economy while instilling a terrific sense of pride that we have the
opportunity to compete in the most dynamic and colorful economic story the
world has ever seen.

It’s All Written in the Moon! (by Fujisan)

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OPX week is finally over and the bears are celebrating a "gravestone" doji of the weekly candle.  Now we are heading for a statistically bullish Thanksgiving week.  What will tomorrow bring?  Well, we don't know, but it looks like it's already written in the moon!

As many of you may be probably aware, the market tends to hit the high of the cycle around the new moon and the low around the full moon, and believe it or not, that's exactly what has been happening in the past many months.

INDU Daily Chart

As you can see, INDU has been going through a very distinctive bull/bear cycle in the past, almost in the clockwise, around the moon.  As this cycle has not been broken, I have no reason not to believe that the next turn day is going to be December 2, the next full moon.  The question is, how low would it go?  As Thanksgiving coming up next week, I wouldn't be surprised to see one more spike to the upside (yeah, we heard that so many times) next week.

INDU 

SPY Daily Chart

Now, SPY started to look a lot like M pattern (i.e., double top) than the three drives pattern (that's exactly what I said last week – sorry, not much change since then).  I really don't have a preference one way or the other at this point, and I don't think it would make much difference from a swing trade standpoint.

Spy 

IWM Daily chart

IWM is coming down to retest 200 SMA.  This is a great place to close your shorts and go long, if it holds.  

Iwm 

Moon Calendar

Here is a moon calendar for 2009 and 2010.  Mark your calendar!

Moon_Calendar
Source: Moonphases.info

Moon_Calendar_2010 
Source: Moonphases.info

EUR/USD update

EUR/USD is forming a triangle consolidation and we still don't have a confirmation one way or the other, although I'm still leaning toward an upside breakout with a target price of 1.52. 

Eur 

GS as a Market Indicator

One of the stocks that I'm keeping track closely as a market indicator is GS.  GS has been a market leader for a while and seems to be completing abc consolidation pretty soon.  As GS is coming to retest 200 SMA, it would be a great place to close your shorts and go long once GS defends 200 SMA.  GS may be able to take the financial sector with it and rally toward early next year.

GS 

Happy Thanksgiving, Everybody! (in case I don't see you by next Thursday)……

OPX Survival Guide (by Fujisan) 
GOOG Pin Play (by Fujisan)  
LEAPS! (by Fujisan) 
Three Peaks and Domed House
Option Strategies from Fujisan