Slope of Hope Blog Posts

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The Euro Rise is Over

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Back on July 1st, I wrote in a post that "A look at the EUR/USD implies a push to 1.3 before a resumption of the fall is in the cards"

I based this on the inverted head and shoulders pattern – very cleanly defined – in the chart. If I had been a bit more precise in my presentation, I would have said 1.306, but what's six pips between friends?

In any event, I think this predicted rise has been beautifully fulfilled and is now over. Check this out:


0716-eur

There's a magnificent confluence here. First, the simple arithmetic circled in red shows the measured move for the IHS pattern, which is the aforementioned 1.3006. The Fibonacci level, 1.30553, is the 61.8% retracement for the entire life of the EUR/USD. Clearly these are almost exactly the same.

I would very much like to see a resumption of the tumbling Euro since (a) I'm super-short right now; and (b) my largest short, by far, is the FXE.

Strap yourselves in for an interesting OPEX day.