Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Breadth Update (by Nathaniel Goodwin)

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This will be my last post for about two weeks. The Colonel and I have decided that it would be in my best interest to take Ted up on his offer of doing him a “favor” in exchange for him not going to the authorities over the poisoning incident with Dr. Ramon, even if it involved me taking my clothes off. I can’t deal with “attempted homicide” charges hanging over my head, and I wouldn’t last two minutes in jail. I was a little nervous about the “favor”, but Ted just told me what it was and it’s not too bad at all.

Ted said he’s trading in his car for a new one in Mexico. All I have to do is meet this guy Jorge across the border and exchange Ted’s car for the new one and drive it back to Pittsburgh. Ted even said he would give me a couple bucks if I make it back in one piece (I hope he didn’t buy some jalopy)…

Before the Colonel and I leave, I wanted to drop off these charts. Last week I posted one of the Zweig Breadth indicator, and how I was using to find divergences. Well watch it very closely now, because there is a good chance it might actually get triggered this week. The “thrust”  is triggered when it goes from below 40% to above 61.5% during a 10 day period. Many consider this to be very bullish. It is not triggered very often at all, last time was March of 2009. The historical average gains over the next 6-12 months after it is triggered is around 25%.


ZweigBreadthThrust


If it is triggered — it isn’t necessarily a signal to “go long right now”; but I think the indicator is suggesting that if a P3 style crash is possible, it will probably be delayed for at least 6-12 months and “buying the dip” in the near future might not be a bad idea.

My largest position right now is in TBT which I’ve been building over the past two weeks based off of this chart. Bonds looked like a breakout, but it might have been a fakeout.


TLT

Adios amigos, see you in a couple weeks!

Back in the Cloud (by Consistently Incredulous)

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It has been a little while since I had an ichimoku update… but then again, I’ve been sitting on the sidelines the entire time (which also happened to coincide with a huge work project – and since that pays the mortgage…).

In my last post on May 25th (here), I commented on my desire to see the price action retest the underside of the cloud and fail.  This happened in 07 & 08 and I have no reason to think it will not happen again- short of a black swan news event. 

As I was then, I continue looking for a July/Aug failed retest of a bearish cloud – similar to that of Sept 08.  Thanks to the ramp this morning, the underside of both the cloud and trend-zone are being tested by the NYSE composite.

713p1

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I’ve seen a lot of press in the last few days debating the validity of the 50/200 death cross signal.  In an earlier post today, Nathaniel’s thoughts mirrored my own – that the indicator needs confirmation.  I apply the same need of confirmation to the ichimoku.

Being short in April 08 would have been painful as the cloud was pierced from the underside, and remained above for another few months.   

Just for fun, I looked at the same 2003-2007 run up (“failed” death crosses in purple, the red one stuck).  At no point was both the cloud and primary trend-line violated.

713p3

So I think we are getting close to a decision soon; maybe the next few weeks, if not days.  I will be sitting in cash until then – watching the trend-line and waiting for either the failure or successful retest of the cloud.

Eeek, I’m a Grind!

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While enjoying my same-breakfast-every-morning (chopped fruit/granola/blueberries/cottage cheese) and same-drink-every-morning (coffee with some fatty milk) and reading my same-paper-every-morning (the New York Times, dead-tree edition), I read David Brooks' column titled An Economy of Grinds.

It begins:

If you go to business conferences, you know that at lunch it is definitely better to be seated next to a prince than a grind.

Princes, who can be male or female, are senior executives at major corporations. They are almost always charming, smart and impressive. They’ve read interesting books. They’ve got well-rehearsed takes on the global situation. They can drop impressive names as they tell you about their visits to the White House, Moscow or Beijing. If you’re having lunch or dinner with a prince, you’re going to have a good time.

Grinds, on the other hand, tend to have started their own company or their own hedge fund. They’re often too awkward to work in a large organization and too intense to work for anybody but themselves.

Ummm……..I nervously glanced to see if my picture was next to the Grind paragraph.

In any case, it's an interesting read, which you can fetch here.