Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Another Analog (by Nathaniel Goodwin)

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After reading some great posts on the thoughts of Serge and Pug Thursday, I thought I would throw this analog out there. This one has been in the back of my head for a few months, and is one reason I’ve tried to lighten up a bit on the bearish side. I am not trading off of this or any other analog, just keeping it in the back of my head along with all the others.
 
If this panned out, it would be  like a strung out version of the 1960’s. The pattern we are currently in could take a few years longer than it did in the 60’s. Elliott Wave wise; this is sort of like what I think Pug is projecting. ((We could also be in an X wave right now from the 666 low after a big A-B-C from 2000-2009, and possibly break the 2008 high to conclude the X wave. What could follow is another mess of A-B-C crash-rally-crash (or just painful sideways motion) that could last until 2020-2025)).

 

I believe that Prechter’s P3 then P4 and P5 is actually the quickest and easiest way this whole mess could end up in terms of EWT; unless the A-B-C from 2000-2009 ended the correction, and we are now in a new bull market. To be honest, I think there are better ways for me to spend my time honing my trading skills than worrying about EWT long term. No matter what happens, EWT will find a way to be correct in the end!


  SPX1960s
 
Here is a fun-fact, mom says I was actually conceived sometime in March of 1974, and was born on 10/04/1974, which was the day that awesome bear died.

One theory I have is that  I may need to impregnate a willing female sloper, which could possibly start the beginning of the next and final big sell off. When the slope-love-child is born, we should all probably dump our shorts and go very long for the remainder of our lives.

If any slope-babes between the age of 21 and 52 are interested in the creation of my spawn, please leave your contact information in the comments section below. This offer is also valid for Bloomberg’s Deidre Bolton and CNBC’s Amanda Drury.

They Can Almost Taste It

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I know exactly what the bulls are thinking. It's all in this graph:

Picture 2

The narrative is simple: they see the /ES pushing above that horizontal line and flying up to 1250. It's on page 3 of any technical analysis book you can find. The inverted head and shoulders. Simple. Obvious.

But, as I've mentioned, I think the bulls are going to experience the full-on disappointment that the bears felt in early February………..and early July…………and early September……..when the market looked like it was going to (finally) plunge but, instead, made an obscene gesture, shouted something horrible, and bounced the opposite direction.

Since the market is such a cruel mistress, it'll probably get above that line, cause all the bulls to fan themselves with excitement, and then make the aforementioned gesture/shout/bounce. That'll make sure the bulls are furious and the bears will be too petrified to do anything about it.

The ways the bulls have been talking, you'd think that the market had been up the past 2,000 sessions in a row (although it sure feels like it). The frantically-bullish sentiment confirms this. The cold fact of the matter is that the Dow is about 4,000 points under its high and – – – here's the important part – – – in spite of our government whoring itself out in every way imaginable, the market has been flailing around at the 50% retracement level for about a year now.

Again, one picture says it all:

Picture 1

I think the odds of the S&P soaring to 1250 are about as good as the S&P collapsing into the fabled land of "wave 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 of 3". It's too obvious. It's too simple. And it's not going to happen.

Chart on TLTs (by Mike Paulenoff)

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Let's have a look at the pattern that continues to unfold in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Very interesting and tricky set-up in the TLTs now. Let's notice that it plunged to new lows at 100.85 for the decline off of the 8/25 high at 109.50 and in so doing has broken the Apr-Sep up trendline at 102.15 (for a second consecutive session).

While my pattern work argues that the downmove is nearing or at completion in the 101.00 area, the TLTs must reverse and climb back above the breach-point of the up-trendline — at 102.15 — to confirm that a significant corrective low has been established. Within the next couple of sessions, the TLTs had better start showing some life on the upside to confirm what my work is telling me could be a powerful upside recovery towards 106-plus.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.

Pug

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As many have gathered, I'm been kind of "down" on Elliott Wave lately (for reasons regular readers know all too well). One E-waver, though, seems to get consistent respect from Slopers, and that is Pug.

Here is his site, which appears to be partially free and partially fee-based. Now let me be clear that my general interpretation of the market's direction differs considerably from Pug's, although ultimately we are in total agreement (that is, the S&P getting somewhat below the February 2009 lows, but not by apocalyptic amounts). Here is his latest "big picture", which calls for a rise to new highs (gack!!) followed by a long fall.

There's been enough adulation about Pug in the comments section that I thought it was high time to point out this impressive site.

0916-pug