Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
The Flip Side of Mo-Mo Stocks
S&P 500 Historical PE, Dividend, Earnings (by Ultra Trading)
Below are two charts of historical S&P 500 earnings and dividend yield. The data goes back to 1960 and is based on year end values.
S&P 500 Earnings and Dividend Yield
Historical average for earnings is 6.86% versus year end 2010 value of 6.65%.
Historical average for dividend yield is 3.15% versus year end 2010 value of 1.84%.
S&P 500 Price To Earnings multiple
Historical average is 16.2 versus year end 2010 value of 15.0.
Submitted by Ultra Trading. To read more, please visit - MacroStory.com
The Kinds of Shorts I’m Seeking
Given the current market's vagaries, I continue to stay partly in cash (75% of my portfolio is committed) with a blend of long/short positions (about 20% and 80% short). The shorts I am seeking resemble, in many cases, FFIV, shown below.
What I see with a chart like this are several attributes:
(a) a huge run-up in price;
(b) a dramatic failure of some kind (in this case, a large gap down);
(c) a robust attempt to recover that failure, which itself has failed
FFIV is particularly good since it has broken a major ascending trendline (circled in green, above). Even with the indexes lurching to new highs seemingly every day, stocks like FFIV seem to be the most vulnerable to inevitable….but too-long-awaited…..market weakness.
Another Look at Banks
As I like to occasionally look at things from the reverse point of view…here are some interesting charts of the bank index. The last few days have been less than impressive for the banks. Additionally, the INVERTED BKX index makes a reasonably bullish chart with its rather pretty bull flag pattern that is emerging……which, by the way, looks like it wants to make a move imminently.
For a closer view click here
Below you can see the tendency toward weakness in the BKX index…and especially on this rebound. At least on a window dressing day, I would think that the banks could get their own stocks window dressed…but not today.
For a closer view click here
Below are two charts of the VIX that show the general view. Given the weekly chart it looks like we are competing our diagonals and that is also reiterated on the daily chart. There are a few options for support and we are currently sitting on one of them.
For a closer view click here
For a closer view click here
