Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Libyan Oil Imports To PIIGS Nations (by MacroStory.com)

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As the crisis in Libya continues and oil exports are disrupted it's important to understand the impact this has on various economies.  As the 18th largest exporter of oil, the impact on the global economy as a whole is somewhat muted, although their grade of oil is higher than others.  Regionally though the impact represent a significant risk to individual economies. Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain already faced with struggling economies and financing concerns are at greatest risk. The chart below shows how much oil each country imports from Libya as a percent of total imports.

 

Anti Gaddafi forces control the eastern Libyan region which is a significant portion of oil facilities. Tripoli and the west are held by pro Gaddafi forces. Imagine if Gaddafi destroys the facilities before losing power? This explains why the US and other countries are moving military assets into the region and the discussion of a no fly zone is accelerating.  The most recent COT report showed commercial net positioned for a sustained rise in oil prices.

Submitted by Macro Story.  If you would like to read more, please visit - MacroStory.com

COT Report Week Ending 3/1 (by MacroStory.com)

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The COT Report for the week ending March 1, 2011 is a rather interesting one. Most important, oil looks poised for further upside.  The commercial net position has gone extremely net short (remember, commercial shorts strength and buys weakness).  Copper on the other hand looks to be rolling over in terms of how commercial traders are positioned.  Both of these should put downside pressure on the SPX.

The USD on the other hand is a tricky one to read.  There are two USD charts below, one of commercial net and another non reporting net (small retail).  Both of these charts imply further USD weakness but non reporting has gone short rather aggressively which could be the fuel needed for a decent squeeze in the face of the excessive talk about the end of the USD. Additionally the divergence in positions between commercial and non reporting is at its widest in well over a year. The group think trade is further downside weakness but the opposite may in fact happen.  On the other hand the USD did just break a three year trend line.

 

 

 

 

 

Submitted by Macro Story. If you would like to read more, please visit - MacroStory.com

Ichimoku Updates

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As of 2pm Friday, a look at the ichimoku cloud charts (from Jan 2010) shows that none of the indexes have broken; i.e. all are above their support zone:

S&P500:

SPX 

DOW:

DJI 

NASDAQ:

NDQ 

For those of you old enough to remember what a bear market looks like, here is the cloud chart of the S&P500 since 2007:

SPX_L 

Relative to the bull-rush of the past of the past 6 months, individual names do appear to have either broken down, or seem to be teetering on the edge:

MRK: Merck

MRK 

ODP: Office Depot

ODP 

DPS: Dr Pepper Snapple

DPS 

In that imaginary future, when the market tide goes out, names like these should be left high and dry.