Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Obama’s Forked Tongue

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I am indebted to ZeroHedge for bringing to everyone's attention then-Senator Barack Obama's bold statement from 2006 with respect to raising the debt limit of the nation:

"The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can’t pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies. … Increasing America’s debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that ‘the buck stops here. Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better."

Contrast that with the latest statement from a man whose sole purpose in life seems to be – – ironically – – making sure the mega-rich get mega-richer by kow-towing to keeping their markets "stable" (e.g. perpetually ascending):

Failure by Congress to raise the U.S. debt limit "could plunge the world economy back into recession," President Barack Obama declared Friday, and he acknowledged that he must compromise on spending with Republicans who control the House to avoid such a crisis. Obama urged swift action, saying he doesn't want the United States to get close to a deadline that would destabilize financial markets. He said he was confident Congress ultimately would raise the limit. "We always have. We will do it again."

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Bonds Breaking Out & Volatility Breaking Down – WTF?? (by Leaf_West)

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Why are bonds breaking higher today?  When you look at the relative performance of Bonds vs Equities it doesn't look like the "risk trade" is one that is getting a lot of action here.

Add to that how defensive sectors like consumer staples and health care have been doing lately (all the way back to the Feb 18th market peak), and something is starting to smell a little fishy.

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Volatility

Much has been talked/written about the $VIX volatility guage today as this index dropped below the $15 level today.

It seems to me from what I have read is that $VIX is at very low levels not so much because of no fear in the market but because market players are busy buying longer-term options and selling shorter term options.  I'm not sure if that is the sole reason, and I'm not sure that will make a difference when we have the next market pull-in.

Interestingly, if you look at the daily chart of the $VIX, the last time we were at these levels was on option expiry date in February (the 18th).  That turned out to be the market top so far.

I took advantage of these low levels to add some VXX to my trading account when it crossed above the 20EMA on the 5min chart this afternoon ($27.49).  VXX is a tough vehicle to trade but it is a good insurance policy over the weekend.

Cheers

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The Spoiled Brats at Google

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I wrote a post recently about Google's desperate attempt to cling to a couple of Vice Presidents that were going to leave for Twitter by throwing them $50 million and $100 million in exchange for sticking around. My belief was that this was a mistake, to say the least, and it would poison the culture.

Google is, I recognize, a wildly successful company with lots of very, very smart people. I'm not sure I would have the brainpower to get a job there (at least a job I'd want), and this post is no reflection on the skills or brainpower of Googlers.

It is, however, a criticism of where Google finds itself culturally. It is a company with over 26,000 individuals who have been given just about all the goodies a rich Silicon Valley firm could offer. Free gourmet meals; free massages; free snacks; gorgeous corporate campuses; cash bonuses in exchange for buying electric vehicles; free haircuts. The list goes on and on.

I would also remind you that Google repriced all underwater options for its employees early in 2009 when the stock was at a nadir. This was a total giveaway to employees and flew in the face of the entire logic of incentive options. Where's the incentive if the strike price is dropped by hundreds of dollars just because the corporation doesn't like the market's assessment of its value?

A few months ago, faced with an increasingly robust hiring environment for smart engineers, Google granted an across-the-board 10% salary boost to all non-executives. It's not that Google as an organization did anything particularly marvelous that compelled the firm to reward its employees. It simply got scared of a brain drain, so it boosted its employee expense by 10% at a stroke.

Far more insidious is the Everyone Deserves To Be Rich culture that has saturated the company and the Valley at large. The general belief is that (a) if you can code; (b) if you are sharp enough to have been hired by Google in the first place, then you deserve to be a millionaire (perhaps many, many times over). You can imagine how it feels for the thousands upon thousands of engineers whose stock options aren't work any particularly large amount to watch colleagues flit off to Zynga, Groupon, Twitter, Facebook, and other hotter, smaller firms and find their fortune. Google is becoming like Microsoft – – a large, steady cash cow whose best days are far behind it.

Google will keep making billions of dollars in profits for many years to come, but in my opinion, they have burdened themselves with a huge employee base that expects to be pampered at great expense, irrespective of their contributions to the company. The best and brightest will leave for greener pastures, and the majority that remain will suckle at the corporate teat for as long as they are permitted.

I imagine a day, not many years from now, when Google will be forced to fire a large number of people, and that will poison the culture even further. The top line is healthy enough right now for them to indulge Googlers around the world, but when business contracts, margins are going to get crushed, and the company is going to discover it has a lot of fat that it needs to cut. Look at Yahoo over the past couple of years to get a sneak preview of what that's going to look like. It won't be pretty.

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