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The rally in crude oil has been impressive, but context is important. Let’s take a look at the past month on an hourly bar basis:
As you can see, crude has had three rallies this month, and the peaks (circled in red) have been a little lower each time. I would suggest that this time is no different, and unless we bolt above $54.33, this is probably just another countertrend rally in the context of an ongoing bear market in energy.
I haven’t dug into comments to investigate, but I gather our man Springheel Jack is under the weather. To give me a chance to pull together some charts, I’ll just toss out this puzzling little tweet that just hit my feed; the text of the tweet contrasted with the message on the shirt is, errrr, unfortunate.
Well, it’s 4:30 in the flippin’ morning, and I’m trying to get used to my new schedule. Yikes.
Just as a comment cleaner, the ES has outdone itself, pushing past even the contract high of December 26:
