Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Emerging From Downtrend?

By -

Do you have a blog? No? Count yourself lucky these days. Trying to make this market interesting is like trying to make Janet Yellen physically enticing. It’s damned near impossible. Day after day, the S&P 500 is up a few hundreds of a percent. Weekdays are little different than weekends in terms of market volatility, which is hovering around nil.

Yet the show must go on, so here’s something moving a tiny bit – emerging markets. It has pushed to new recent highs, which in itself doesn’t seem that interesting…..

0807-EEMCLOSE

(more…)

One Possible Path

By -

Even though I’m kind of in the business of trying to predict the future, the one topic that seems to get me face-slapped most easily here on Slope is when I try to do just that: in other words, those times when I try to paint with a broad brush what could be coming in the future. In spite of it, I’m going to do it anyway, and offer up one possible scenario for the months ahead in our world and, thus, equity markets. As is so often said here, “anything could happen”, but just for the hell of it, let’s work with this possible path forward:

(1) The Top Is In: OK, OK, stop yelling. Remember, we’re just playing with one potential scenario. Let’s start off with the assumption that my much-maligned Fibonacci target of 2486.95 was successfully reached last month (intraday high: 2484.04, 99.99%+ of the target price) and that the insane stuff you are reading from commentators such as the bull market will last “forever” and (from Yellen) how we’ll never see another financial crisis in our lifetimes is the very stuff which precedes gargantuan turning points.

(more…)