I have, in the past given my assessment and conclusive disdain for crypto. To summarize my overall feelings on it, I don’t believe it really serves a higher function than to allow for market gamblers to buy and sell securities.
What if you are not a market gambler? Why should you purchase a bitcoin? What can you do with it?
Consistently, the only answer I have ever received for this question is “you can hold it because it will be worth more later”. I realized I need to revise my approach to this property because I don’t think I’ll ever receive a real answer to these questions. To invest, I just need to be a believer that if/when you decide to “invest” that I am not the greatest fool (i.e., someone else will agree to pay more for my coin than I did).
There were obvious volatile periods. There was a shot up to 1200 area, retracement and failure to hold above 450-500 area, followed by a sideways/upward drift back into a sideways consolidation under 450. After this was the upward breakout to 750, retracement to 480, then it took off and never looked back. Easy peasy.
There was this obvious (2020 hindsight) volatile topping above 31,500, subsequent failure and large drawdown, drift upward and now bsideways between 25k and 31k. It feels eerily similar to the last setup.
So the play is clear then, yes? Watch for a breakout and BUY!
But a range is a range until it is not. Unless you are playing the intraday moves, best to stay away from this until it hits the more major levels. Approaching 31k I’d look to short. If that fails to upside (i.e., breaks out), then cover the short and get long and HODL. However, if it succeeds to rejecting, then watch to buy around 25k.
Once again, easy peasy.
From a charting perspective, the setups are pretty amazing and seem to pay off when you catch them right. I actually find it a bit ironic as the only real way for me to play this is to completely ignore any attempt at understanding it and just believe solely in the charts. Being a chartist, I should expect to LOVE Bitcoin. But alas, in my mind it still feels like trading wooden nickels at the carnival and pretending they are the future.
