One of my favorite comics, the late, great Gilbert Gottfried (not the late, great Hannibal Lecter you’ve heard so much about this week) often said his secret fantasy was that he’d be backstage the club, waiting to go on, and the club’s owner would come back and tell him there had been a flood and, here’s your check, you can go home. I’m afraid in recent weeks that’s precisely how I’ve been feeling, which is utterly uncharacteristic of my entire life. That feeling had better change soon. In the span of just four weeks. from April 19 to May 17, the markets have all exploded to lifetime highs, with the /NQ alone adding about 1,800 points. That’s more than ten percent. In four weeks.
And, over just the past year and a half, the VIX has been cut by 75%. Good God, people, just look at this weekly chart. It was about 40 in late 2022. It is now approaching 10. Pathetic isn’t strong enough a word.
The last thin reed on which any bearish hopes can hang is bonds. Keep in mind there are three drivers behind this 18 month mega-rally: (a) trillions of dollars of federal interference, intended to keeping the present administration in power (b) the AI canard (c) the notion that Powell is just dying to slash rates, and he’s going to do it, oh, real soon now. You betcha.
I have absolutely loved doing Slope for 95% of its existence, but these days, the prospect of having to dream up a dozen posts for the weekend to talk about a market which does nothing but make new highs every day leaves me bereft.
