We all made it through another mandatory holiday, and a tremendous amount has happened during our forced three-day idleness. There was the horrible tragedy in Texas, created by 1.8 trillion gallons of water dumped from the heavens in a matter of hours, and the OBBB victory lap, as well as the evidently recently discredited news that Elon had formed the America party. Let’s catch up with a few pre-opening charts.
The ES, NQ, and RTY are all showing red numbers, but as I mentioned yesterday, it’s only because data providers are pretending Friday trading didn’t exist. We are in fact higher than Friday’s close, but net of Friday’s trading, yes, we are down a little. Meh. BFD.
The fact is that since the Liberation Day joke back on April 2nd (it really should have been the day before), the markets have curbed-stomped anyone who dared to be bearish. It’s going to take some severe splintering to break this goddamned rally, this morning’s tiny dip notwithstanding. Trump’s refusal to keep a single promise (April 2nd tariffs, April 9th retreat, July 9 deadline, then suddenly August 1 deadline, etc.) is just going to convince people that he’s too terrified to let the markets fall by a single percentage point and he’ll TACO the nation into oblivion.
Speaking of Tesla, the market has no appetite for Elon getting back into politics. There was a widely circulated image of the filing on the FEC site for the America party (spread, in part, but the woman below who has since removed the images) but it looks like the images were phony, and Elon has firmly denied the creation of any such party. Even so, TSLA is taking a big hit because, well, folks want the man to stick to managing his companies and not dabbling in Ross Perot-style third party politics.
I continue to be lightly positioned, as I have for all these demoralizing days in recent memory, with a mere twelve short positions and a commitment level of 54% (less than a third of my buying power). Plus, I’ve got to say, I’m starting to get really frustrated and impatient with my only long, which is palladium (by way of PALL). I’m sick to death of how thinly-traded the /PA market is, as well as these cutesy little every-single-night selloffs.
I’m losing patience, although I would hasten to remind you that I’m the sort that would have “lost patience” with $BTC going from $100 to $90, only to dump it and see it eventually move up to the six figures. My personality is rather paper-hands-y, and I’m not so sure PALL is going to survive the day, or even the first hour of trading. I’m kind of sick of it.
On a brighter note, bonds are sinking (TLT is my biggest short), indicative of the very correct assessment that loaning money to a bankrupt United States isn’t a shrewd move anymore.
We’ve got the entire remainder of July and all of August with no stupid holidays, so let’s all make the most of it! Good luck out there!
