There were two big pieces of trade news over the weekend. First, your hero granted China YET ANOTHER “pause” on tariffs of 90 days, and at this point, let’s just accept the fact the Tubs is going to keep extending and pausing until he drops dead. TACO has struck yet again, because the man’s word means as much as his first two failed marriages, and the performative “Liberation Day” nonsense (complete with all the characters from Sesame Street’s song “Who Are the People In Your Neighborhood?) was clearly nothing more than a cruel joke.
For a while, the market didn’t care. I guess there’s not anyone on Earth stupid enough to believe Trump’s threats about tariffs anymore when it comes to China. The bigger news, however, was that the EU and the US buttoned down their agreement, which the market has perceived as a meaningful risk otherwise.
The markets responded positively, naturally, with, for example, the /NQ gapping higher.
The /RTY likewise gapped higher.
Before we all start blowing out heads off, however, I want to point out a couple of things on the heels of this massive EU news. First, it’s not like the /ES is up 300 points. As I’m typing this, it’s up about a quarter of a single percentage point. The symbol to find that out, by the way, is BFD. I would also mention that the /RTY, what with its explosive price gap and all, is trading at prices not even seen since……..last Thursday. So, yeah, I’m not impressed.
This is not to say I’m giddy with excitement about Monday’s open. I might just nuke all my stops and reset them one by one, for safety’s’ sake. Things will be a lot clearer about a half hour into the opening bell on Monday, to see just how much the market cares about this latest set of concessions on the part of the U.S.
