For me, trading this market has morphed from an electric thrill to a tepid bore. The reason is simple: the nonstop threats/TACO cycle is exhausting, and making trading decisions that can be upended by the unhinged whims of a single man isn’t my cup of tea. It’s “Chinese trade talks are going well” all over again.
You can see the market’s bewilderment by way of the /ES grinding away with absolutely no clear direction for days on end…………
My core semiconductor position, SOXL, is still intact (barely avoiding a gap violation), but, again, a single loopy tweet could instantly add or delete trillions of dollars of equity value within moments.
My own portfolio construction has been dialed back to even more conservative. Of my five portfolios:
- One: All cash (and has been for some time)
- Two: All cash (sold BITI this morning)
- Three: options account, only 39% committed
- Four: short portfolio, 83% committed
- Five: short portfolio: 38% committed
I haven’t been this light in a long, long time. And I see they’re going to trot out the rescued airman (saved at the cost of half a billion dollars of additional destroyed aircraft as well as a rumored six additional lives) for a political show at the White House later this morning. And, of course, the completely meaningless “deadline” continues to tick its way toward what surely will be yet another extension.
Now that I’ve refreshed all my stops, I’ll take a new look at other possibilities, but again, caution is ruling my mindset.
